History Tells Us That If The Bucks Want To Win The Title They Pretty Much Have To Win Tonight

Nathaniel S. Butler. Getty Images.

Let's start with the reality of the situation the Bucks face tonight. In NBA Finals history, there have been 35 total series that have seen a team go up 2-0. When that happens, that team is 31-4. They win the title 88% of the time. In recent years, we saw LeBron come back from down 0-2 in 2016 to win the whole thing, as did Wade and Shaq back in 2006. Before that, it hadn't happened since 1977. They say a series doesn't really start until a team loses at home, but history tells us if you don't find a way to at least split the first two games of the NBA Finals, things are probably not going to work out well for you. 

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So you could say tonight's Game 2 is pretty massive for anyone looking to win the 2021 NBA title. Normally, Game 1s are usually a feel out game. You're pretty much running on pure adrenaline. The Suns were practically flawless and for a bunch of guys outside of Jae Crowder playing in their first NBA Finals, you couldn't really tell. It shouldn't surprise anyone they played so well and took Game 1, but it also shouldn't cause Bucks fans to panic. As long as Giannis is healthy they have a chance in this series, but it's clear some things need to be adjusted. You never want to overreact to Game 1 from a scheme standpoint, you don't change everything you've done all year and been successful at just because you lost a single game. The idea of continuing to do what you normally do, only do it a little better, is certainly on the table. 

The question becomes how much of the Bucks struggles in Game 1 were a fluke, and how much were a real issue? For example, they shot 13-21 in the restricted area (61.9%) and 8-20 in the paint (40%). There were a lot of misses around the rim that usually drop. On the season, the Bucks shot 67.5% in the restricted area and 44.3% in the paint. These entire playoffs they've lived at 69.1% and 45.5%. You could make the case that simply finishing better around the rim will have an impact. You don't exactly have to change anything up in order to do that. Brook Lopez shoots 74% at the rim this season and went 2-6 in Game 1. That may seem small, but it matters. Especially when the Bucks three point shooting hasn't heated up yet. The fact that the Bucks had only 42 points in the paint in Game 1, which is nearly 10 fewer points than they've averaged all postseason is a big deal and something that could very well turn in Game 2. It's not like the Suns are elite at preventing teams from scoring in the paint or anything. They were 15th during the season and were 7th out of 16 teams this postseason. I consider this more of a fluke for the Bucks than anything else.

What isn't a fluke is their inability to guard Chris Paul or Devin Booker. We saw both abuse the shit out of whatever the Bucks tried in Game 1. Drop coverage, switching, none of it really worked. Here's where the decision making comes into play. If the Bucks want to go small and have Giannis at the 5 so that he can be the one that switches on Paul/Booker, that means you're going to get a whole lot more Forbes/Connaughton in the lineup. With no Donte DiVencenzo, this hurts the Bucks defensively because both of those guys are going to be attacked instead. For my money, it's worth the risk. In the small sample of Game 1, look at the lineup differences from when the Bucks had Lopez at the 5 compared to Giannis

Holiday/Middleton/Tucker/Giannis/Lopez: 110 Ortg / 121 Drtg / -10.5 net rating

Holiday/Middleton/Forbes/Connaughton/Giannis: 125 Ortg / 106.7 Drtg / +18.3 net rating

Those were the two most used lineups by the Bucks in Game 1. If it were me, I would take my chances with someone other than Booker/Paul beating their matchup with hopes your team defense could recover than simply leaving Lopez/Portis etc on an island. We know that won't work. We can also see them make small adjustments to their drop coverage like Lopez getting slightly higher to try and prevent the pull up, and the guards sagging in more to help. 

You also can assume that the Bucks will get a different whistle than in Game 1. Look, I have no rooting interest in these Finals. But I can't sit here and tell you that someone like Devin Booker got the same whistle as Khris Middleton. It was pretty clear in Game 1 that the Suns benefitted from a friendly whistle. That's going to flip at some point in this series. Both teams took essentially the same amount of 3PA (36 for MIL vs 34 for PHX), points in the paint were basically even (42 for MIL vs 44 for PHX). Both were aggressive in paint FGA with MIL at 41 and PHX at 34. But it was the Bucks with 18 fouls to PHX's 14 and a pretty substantial 26-16 FTA difference. Through the first 3 quarters, it was a 19-6 FTA difference. The Suns were +17 in points from the line at that point and it was a 16 point game heading into the fourth quarter.

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That doesn't scream that the Bucks have to make major changes in order to snag a win. Be better about defending without fouling, stay aggressive and hope things are more even in Game 2. 

What they certainly need to do is cut down on the turnovers. A brutal 5 from Middleton is not going to cut it. That's how you allow the Suns to get easy bucks (20 fast break points), and playing on the road the last thing you want to do is help those fans make an impact. That's something you can certainly control and it would do wonders for the Bucks chances at a split.

The big thing is the Bucks don't have to reinvent the wheel tonight. As we know, the deeper you get in the Finals the harder the wins are. Players maybe get tight the closer they get to a ring. Minor adjustments and water simply finding its level in certain areas could absolutely have this 1-1 as we head back to Milwaukee. That's the hope for the Bucks. If not, and they find themselves down 0-2, well history says they're most likely screwed.