Julio Jones Says 'I'm Out of' Atlanta Amid Reports the Patriots are Having 'Discussions' About Him

Kevin C. Cox. Getty Images.

It's been an NFL offseason that has seen high profile, All Pro, future Hall of Fame stars take turns being the subject of supernova hot trade rumors - from Russell Wilson to Deshaun Watson to Aaron Rodgers - only to see nothing come of them. Unless I'm missing someone, the only name that fits that description who switched teams was J.J. Watt, and he was given his outright release so he could choose his own destination. 

That is, until now. If Atlanta is not serious about trading Julio Jones, they're doing a pisspoor job of acting like it. And as of today, we've got confirmation that the feeling is mutual. Jones was spotted wearing Cowboys gear, which led to the inevitable assumption that Dallas was his No. 1 choice. But Jones himself shot that down to Shannon Sharpe today (cued up to the 6:13 mark):

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The oddsmakers are all over the map, almost literally. Depending on which site you go to, he's been favored to wind up in Dallas, San Francisco, Tennessee, Arizona, Indianapolis and, because no star wideout can potentially be on the market without them being in the mix, New England. 

Cue the Belichick Walking GIF:

But this particular speculation about this particular wide receiver seems to be more valid than the annual Larry Fitzgerald rumor we heard for 10 straight years or the wet dreaming about Calvin Johnson went on for years after he retired. This one actually makes sense. According to some reports, the Patriots are at least interested in being interested in Jones. 

Now, any trade of Jones will have to happen after June 1st in order for the Falcons to benefit from the freed up cap space. Pro Football Talk has a great summary of the economic factors that even I (whose financial advisors have to keep a basket of apples and oranges in the office to explain my mutual funds to me) can understand:

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Sure, it seems like the Falcons should get as much or more for Jones than the second-round selection they got for receiver Mohamed Sanu at the 2019 trade deadline. But the presence of a $15.3 million salary, guaranteed for skill, injury, and cap, makes it harder for the Falcons to get a second-round pick — unless they’re willing to pay some of the money due to Jones.

The less the Falcons are willing to pay to facilitate a trade, the less the Falcons will get in trade. The more they’ll pay, the more they’ll get. …

[T]he question becomes whether it’s more important to maximize draft capital or cash/cap space. The Falcons, if they’re simply trying to find someone to take $15.3 million off the books, may have to take a late-round pick. If they want a second-round pick, they may have to pay a large chunk of that salary.

Now, about that $15.3 million hit. It just so happens that the Patriots, in spite of all the money they've spent, are currently very close to that figure, though they do still have most of their draft picks still to sign. But as it stands, they still have the 11th most space in the league. 

The only source I, or anyone else I know, goes to on the very narrow field of study that is the Patriots cap, has the numbers:

So they are one of only a few clubs who can reasonably put down bids on the Julio Jones silent auction without having to sell off major assets they already have. And it's all negotiable, since the Falcons have the dual goal of getting the most return they can for him while forking over the least amount of money. 

Which leads us to what it would cost the Patriots. If you begin with a 2nd round pick, which seems to be where everyone is starting, what else would it take to keep them on the phone? Everyone calling them will start at the back end of the draft and work forward. And New England has the same number of picks as the rest of them. (At least until the NFL catches a Kraft Productions film crew pointing a camera into the sky and it's determined it was getting a reflection off a satellite from some other team's practice field and a pick gets taken away.) So why not sweeten the pot with some actual players? Players that have talent. And years ahead of them. And who are still relatively affordable, which is crucial to a cash-strapped team like the Falcons? 

Stephon Gilmore. The 2019 Defensive POTY is on the books for just $7 million in this, the final year of his deal. But there's a cap hit there that is still probably prohibitive for Atlanta. So moving on …

J.C. Jackson. One of the best young cornerbacks in the game, who will very soon be getting paid like it. Probably just not in New England. He's signed now on a 2nd round restricted free agent tender, just like fellow UDFA Malcolm Butler was before him. And like Butler, will be gone next year because they won't franchise him. But Atlanta might. This would hurt, but would be one of those trades that, to use the cliche, would help both teams. And I'm only here to make everyone happy. I'm a people pleaser.

Sony Michel. A 25-year-old former 1st round running back who's still on his rookie deal, the Patriots did not pick up his 5th year option. The emergence of Damien Harris last year and the drafting of 230 pound Rhamondre Stevenson make him expendable. But this is still the guy who, as a rookie, carried his team through the postseason with an average of 112 rushing yards per game and six touchdowns. He'd be an exceptional fit into the Falcons RB rotation. 

N'Keal Harry. Speaking of former 1st round picks, how about Harry to help ease the loss of Jones on the outside of Matt Ryan's passing attack? I'll be the first to say it hasn't quite, exactly, totally worked out quite to the extent that one might hope for with him. But he's just two years removed from a draft where he was a consensus top five prospect at his position. And seems like the classic case of a guy whose career got off to a shaky start due to injuries, roster changes and a pandemic. One who could most definitely benefit from a change of scenery, team, and life. He's young and affordable with a potentially high upside. Exactly what the Falcons need right now. 

And while we're still talking about former 1st round picks:

Cam Newton. A former MVP making next to nothing. And an upgrade over A.J. McCarron as Matt Ryan's backup now that Ryan turned 36. It would kill us to part with the man who threw three touchdowns in his final game last year, just to hand the QB 1 job over to Mac Jones. But you have to give up something to get something. 

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OK, Falcons. You drive a hard bargain. But take a 2nd rounder and any of these, and you've got yourself a deal.