A Look At How The Hell The Celtics Have Suddenly Turned Their Season Around

For the moment, the Celts look like a team that is turning their season around. It took a while to get here, probably way longer than we all wanted, but it's arrived. They are not only playing the best basketball of their season, but some of the best basketball in the league for almost a month now. Naturally, I spend a majority of my days thinking why and how that's happened. Some people will say this all changed because of a tweet. Some people will say it's health related. Some people will say it's a combination of everything.

But what I was curious about was what has changed on the actual court since the trade deadline. At 10-3, the Celts have the best record in the East over that span, the 9th best offense in the league, 6th best defense, and 5th best net rating. Perhaps it's just a me thing, but whenever we see a stretch like this, good or bad, I always want to see what the numbers say. Do they actually support what our eyes are telling us? Is there any cause for concern that what we are seeing is not sustainable? That's what this blog is. I went through a bunch of different areas of interest that help tell the story of this sudden turnaround. 

The first place I wanted to look is at their drives. Over these last few weeks you get the sense that the team is more aggressive right? That they cut out the bullshit and are actually taking it more to the rim. Well….that's kind of not true

Drives

Pre deadline

Post deadline

As you can see from their four best players, they aren't driving to the rim more. They have just been insanely better at finishing. Look at those percentages. Marcus is the least efficient and he's shooting 53.4% on drives. Look at the jump from Kemba and Jaylen. This is both good and bad in my opinion. It's awesome that they are finding ways to be this effective, but I'm not sure shooting 60% on drives is all that sustainable, especially when you face better defenses in the playoffs. So the fact that we're seeing them drive less overall is a bit concerning. 

As a team, they are just 25th in terms of drives per game and 23rd in points off drives. The biggest thing is their 53.4% is the 2nd best in the league since the deadline. 

Their passing off drives in terms of AST% is basically identical, it was 10.0% pre deadline and 10.9% right now. That's not bad, tied with MIL for 5th in the NBA and just barely behind BKN (11.0).

3 point shooting

Then you factor in the three point shooting. This idea that the Celts have moved away from shooting threes and instead are playing a more aggressive style, isn't totally true. In fact, their 3PA since the deadline has skyrocketed up to 40.9 a game, which is the 2nd most in the league. Pre deadline, they were about 33.7 a game. They're making 15.1 which is also 2nd.

So in this aspect, since the deadline they are driving less and shooting more threes. The two things many fans begged them not to do. The difference is those shots have been falling.  

Free Throws

Another area where it feels like the Celts have improved is their ability to get to the line. Part of that is Tatum's recent surge, but again, the numbers tell a different story. Since the trade deadline they are taking just 19.0 FTA a game, which is 24th in the league. That is actually fewer than the 21.5 FTA they were taking before the deadline, which was 16th.

In fact with Tatum specifically, his FTA have only gone from 4.6 to 5.3 a game. That's basically the same. Even I can admit that doesn't exactly feel right, but it's true. Their FTA rate during this stretch is only 25th. That's not great.

So let's pause for a quick second here.

The Celts aren't driving more, are shooting more threes, and aren't getting to the line more. So how has their offense gone from dogshit to top 10? The efficiency has a lot to do with it for sure, but it's also about how much more the ball is moving. It seems pretty simple, but this simple improvement goes a long way

Passing

Before the deadline, the Celts were making around 285 passes a night. Good for 18th. They were 29th in secondary assists and 27th in potential assists. Their passing led to just 58.2 points, which was 26th

Post deadline? That passing number has improved to 296, which is good for 7th. Their secondary assists have almost doubled at 4.0, good for 5th. Now, a total of 65.8 points are coming off passes. Two things really stand out to me here and it matches the eye test. Not only is the ball moving more, but we're seeing the Celts pass up good shots for great shots. The secondary assist jump is what's telling me the ball is moving a whole lot better. 

Part of that is Kemba's recent surge as a playmaker, but also a lot of it goes to Smart as well. He's changed back into his ideal role as a defender/playmaker and it's only helped this offense feel different. 

This is especially important in the fourth quarter. Take Jayson Tatum for example. In the fourth quarter, he takes a shot after 7+ dribbles at 19.7% of the time. At 3-6, a total of 23%. 2 dribbles, 24.6%. Prior to the deadline, his 7+ dribbles was at 23.8% and his 3-6 dribbles at 33%. Basically, once this team got to the fourth quarter, it was just a whole lot of Tatum dribbling.

Same was true for Jaylen. Pre-deadline fourth quarters Jaylen was taking 7+ dribbles before a shot 8% of the time. Post deadline, that number has dropped to 5.9%.

What we're seeing right now is that once this team gets to the fourth quarter, it's not just everyone standing around and watching the Jays dribble into contested shots. Would you say it's an accident that when you factor in this better ball movement, especially in the fourth quarter, that the Celts have been the 3rd best fourth quarter team in the league? They are putting up 28.8 points on 48% shooting. That's the 3rd most points and 3rd best FG%.

They have the 3rd best offense in the fourth quarter and the 5th best clutch offense since the deadline. No surprise they've won their last 5 clutch games.

Unlike maybe their drive FG%, this is something that can definitely be sustainable. There's nothing fluky about passing the ball. There's nothing crazy about not just relying on the Jays to dribble a ton before taking shots in the fourth quarter. Everything is being done with more purpose, and it's translating.

Defense

If you want something where the numbers actually do match the eye test, it's on the defensive end. For me personally, this is the biggest reason for the turnaround and it's the most important thing the Celts have addressed. To go from the 23rd ranked defense to 6th is a massive jump, and it's not just coming from the perimeter guys either. The insertion of Rob has had a lot to do with how the Celts look on that end, opponents are shooting just 44.9% against Rob, but this is also true of Tristan Thompson. He's been incredible defensively during this stretch, holding opponents to just 40% shooting. Romeo has come right in and done the same (40%). 

They are still committing a bunch of fouls so that hasn't really changed, but what you're seeing is a much better effort. They are getting to more loose balls, they are 2nd in the NBA in charges drawn, and they are contesting more shots.

Essentially, they look a whole lot more like the team we've grown accustomed to on the defensive end during the Brad Stevens era. The scheme hasn't changed, but guys are healthy and actually playing. I think that goes a long way. 

So it's easy to say the Celts turnaround is just because of a tweet or the fact that the Jays are on a roll. But there are both reasons to be optimistic and a little concerned with what we are seeing. Once the efficiency starts to go the other way, which it will, how will they respond? I do think what we've seen change is their passing and how they approach things in the fourth quarter. That's certainly sustainable. As is the defensive improvement now that guys are back. That's what makes these next 15ish games so interesting to me. How much of this is for real and how much is maybe a little fools gold. 

In all honesty, it's probably a little of both.