Liverpool's Champions League "Luck" To Run Out Against Real Madrid Today?

Sam's Soccer Safe Space For Stoolies

Hi haters™,

We are down to the final eight clubs in this season’s Champions League


which seems like a fun time to remind the world of the clowniest clown take in the history of soccer:

“Let’s rig the draw to help rich clubs!” says this dude with a straight face.

Seriously, imagine respecting this clout-chasing dinosaur’s opinion. Yikes. Couldn’t be me.

But wait! There’s more! His follow-up was somehow even worse:

“Processing”? “Solidarity”? Good lord. Take the L, stop playing both the victim and SJW buzzword bingo, and most importantly either come up with better takes or just stfu you pile of week old Cool Whip.

Enough with the clownshow though, let’s move on to the actual jogo bonito. First, however, take a moment to set the mood by letting the sweet sounds of soccer sex flow through your brainbox:


Here is the schedule for this week’s first legs:


Quick reminder: first legs have a tendency to be a little more cagey affairs… at least that’s what conventional wisdom says since I’ve never actually seen data to back it up.


Draw [+255]

Two teams that have been there and done that but ain’t all that and a bag of chips relative to what they have been in previous seasons. That is especially true of Liverpool, of course, given the ridiculous run of bad injury luck they went on this fall and winter.

Also, while we are talking about recent history, you can bet we will be seeing/hearing a lot of reminders about this “play” from the 2018 Champions League final:

Which leads me to my “Lucky Liverpool” comment in the headline as BOTH of Real Madrid’s first-choice CBs – Sergio Ramos (calf) and Raphael Varane (the coco) – have been ruled out for today’s game.  Phillips/Kabak vs Militao/Nacho doesn’t have quite the same ring to it as VVD/Gomez vs Ramos/Varane, now does it. So if you are thinking goal-fest I don’t blame you. After all both teams have plenty of firepower and Liverpool looks like a MUCH better team now that Klopp slotted Fabinho back into the midfield thus giving Thiago Alcantara WAY more freedom to make plays. But I’ll take a stab in the dark and say both teams play pretty conservative and leave it all to play for in the second leg when Madrid may have its CBs back and Liverpool will be at home (not that that has been a good thing lately).

Prediction: 1-1 DRAW

MAN CITY [-265]
DORTMUND [+1000]
Draw [+480]

Every time I thought Dortmund might get over the hump and make some serious waves in recent seasons – be it in the Bundesliga or Champions League – they have always come up just a little short. Streaks were made to be broken so it seems only a matter of time until BVB makes a breakthrough in one of the competitions AND this is right about the perfect time for City’s annual inexplicable bed-shitting performance in UCL… but Pep’s Petrostars have a different feel this time around having built themselves on a lights out defense. Erling Haaland can and probably will score against anyone in the world but in the end I can’t go against this light blue wave – not this game/round anyway.

Prediction: CITY TO WIN 2-1


BAYERN [-104]
PSG [+340]
Draw [+305]

What a massive, masssssssssssive game and a rematch of last season’s Champions League final in which Ze Germans won 1-0. The big news coming into this one is without a doubt:


Bayern are more than just Lewa, obviously, but the difference between having to worry about him and Eric Maxim Chuopo-Moting is night and day. On the other hand PSG hasn’t exactly been killing it in the Farmer’s French League having just fallen to and three points back of Lille.

I gotta be honest. I have no idea what to think about this one except for one thing: goals. Bayern’s defense hasn’t been great (though they go get future-MLSer Jerome Boateng and former MLSer Alphonso Davies back from suspension) and PSG can almost always be counted on for plenty of biscuits in the basket at both ends of the field. So push comes to shove I am loving the OVER…. but since I am contractually obligated to pick a score I’ll just admit that my thoughts are colored heavily by how ridiculously good PSG looked in the first R16 leg at Barcelona.

Prediction: PSG TO WIN 3-2

PORTO [+410]
CHELSEA [-120]
Draw [+260]

“Rule #1: Never doubt the Portuguese at home in Champions League” he says right before promptly doubting the Portuguese at home in Champions League.

#NeverAgain. Not against a Chelsea team that has been piling up unconvincing result after unconvincing result.

Prediction: PORTO TO WIN 2-1


Reminder: another big slate on Spursday. Kidding, it’s just Europa.

Reminder #2: Concacaf Champions League kicks off today. It kinda sucks that MLS teams are at a disadvantage every season in that they come in having played zero regular seasons games but the league has been doing much better in recent seasons… maybe this is the year we break through?

As always, thanks for reading you beauties. Though speaking of beauties….

Samuel Army