The Jets Somehow Receive A Decent Return From The Panthers For Sam Darnold

The Sam Darnold era is over in New York. Another USC QB that started out with such hope, ended with nothing. At least Mark Sanchez won 4 playoff games. Sam Darnold's lasting memory is this viral clip on Twitter:

And, somehow, 3 draft picks? Including a 2nd-round pick?

What a haul for the Jets. Joe Douglas managed to get 2 1st rounders, 2nd rounder, 3rd rounder, 4th rounder, and a 6th rounder for Sam Darnold and Jamal Adams…..not bad. The Jets now have 21 picks in the next 2 drafts and none of them are in the 7th round.

What does this move mean for the Jets? I would assume they're sold on drafting Zach Wilson at #2 or they're preparing a bigger package for Russell Wilson. My gut tells me that it's Wilson at 2.

The Panthers are getting a relatively young QB, who has been truly awful in New York.

Among QBs who have played at least 640 snaps in the past 3 seasons, Sam Darnold ranks 31st out of 32nd in EPA/play, only in front of Case Keenum. Here are his rankings in DYAR, DVOA, and QBR:

2020 (out of 36 passers): 35th, 33rd, 34th.

2019 (out of 34 passers): 32nd, 31st, 27th

2018 (out of 34 passers): 30th, 30th, 30th

He's honestly gotten worse. Has he been given any help from his situation with the Jets? Of course not. Adam Gase is incompetent and his receiving core was among the worst every time he played. The hope for the Panthers, I assume, is if you surround him with competent coaches, Robbie Anderson (who he played very well with in NY), Curtis Samuel (no longer on the Panthers, my bad) McCaffrey, and DJ Moore, he may emerge as a better player.

The optimist will point towards Ryan Tannehill's success after leaving Miami. Let's look at Tannehill's QBR while with the Dolphins:

2012: 20th

2013: 23rd

2014: 15th

2015: 29th

2016: 25th

2018: 33rd

Of QBs who played at least 1500 snaps from 2012-2018, Tannehill ranked 26th out of 30 QBs in completion percentage over expectation + EPA. During his last 2 years in Tennessee, Tannehill ranks 2nd out of 32 QBs, only behind Mahomes. He ranked 4th in QBR last year too. The best scenario for the Panthers would be Darnold having a turnaround like Tannehill. How likely is that? I'd say incredibly unlikely. We honestly don't talk about Tannehill's transformation enough. He went from a backup QB for the rest of his career to one of the best QBs in the league by switching teams. 

I have long been a Sam Darnold apologist, but that part of my life is now over. I feel free. As a Jets fan, I don't hate Darnold. He seemed like a great guy in and out of the locker room. He just didn't have it. Maybe he stinks or maybe it was the Jets fault, but I'm glad he's gone. 

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