I guess this is what we're doing now as baseball fans, looking at projections and percentages from FanGraphs, PECOTA, and other publications like that to determine which teams make the playoffs. I love FanGraphs too, don't get me wrong and I get that they have to do it, pitchers and catchers reported today so it's topical. But if you're an Orioles fan you know going into this season it's not about the win loss record. It's about stocking their top 7 farm system with more talented young players, and building for the future. That is exactly what the club is doing.
You have people looking at these projections by FanGraphs asking "why do the Pirates have a 0.4% chance and the Os have 0.0%?" Look at the divisions, the Orioles play in the AL East where the Yankees SHOULD run away with it, the Blue Jays may be the best up and coming team in baseball, the Rays were in the World Series 5 months ago, and the Sox even with their last place finish last year still have some solid weapons and aren't afraid to spend. No shit the Orioles aren't going to make the playoffs in that division.
I just can't get all up in arms about the computer churning out numbers that don't really mean anything. I'm guessing FanGraphs didn't have the Marlins in the playoffs last year, or the Nationals missing the playoffs. Back from 2012-2016 when the Orioles lead the AL in wins PECOTA was projecting the Os for 60 wins every year. Big whoop. Again, I know it's fun to argue and complain about these things online but who cares? We know the Orioles aren't going to be good this year and we've known it for 3 years. It's a damn rebuilding team that is shedding payroll and stocking up their young talent for the future, of course they're not going to make the playoffs.
Looks like enough O's fans bitched at FanGraphs though, this is what you get. Talk to me in 2025 when myself, Adley, and Trey are on a boat going down Light Street chugging Natty Bohs. FanGraphs is uninvited to the parade.