Let's Have Fun Considering the Worst Case Scenarios of the Patriots 2021 Offseason

It's been a few days since a happy Tom Brady, a healthy Rob Gronkowski and a suddenly stable, selfless Antonio Brown made champions out of one of the worst franchises in all of sports. At best, the team they left behind is in a period of retooling. At worst, they're in a  post-Dynasty era that will be permanent. Already a thing of the past. The football equivalent of the ancient walled city of Ninevah, the urban center of the Assyrian Empire, home of a ruler proclaimed "the king of the universe," until it fell in 650 B.C. Within 200 years, Ninevah's ruins were discovered by Greek general Xenophon, who had never seen anything like it his native land. But neither he nor any of the locals could identify the fortress or knew who built such a marvel that was now lost to history. 

If I can speak for Patriots fans - and why would I stop now? - I'd say we're all in that brain space like one of those dreams where you find yourself naked in school, wondering how you got there, and dreading the humiliation that's coming.

I want to hope for the best. It's my default setting. Bill Belichick is the one person in the history of the human race I trust most to rebuild this thing. He's got as much draft capital as he ever has, $60 million in cap space in a league where most teams will have to dump payroll, and even more space next year and the year after. But with so many gigantic variables in the equation that need to be solved for, there comes doubt that he can find us some pants and a shirt before the rest of the class turns around and starts laughing at us. 

So to help get through this time of uncertainty, I'm going to try something new. Instead of expecting the best, let's take a deep dive into the worst. Like Exposure Therapy, where they take someone who's got a phobia toward snakes, so they stick them in a vat of snakes. Let's try leaning into the worst case scenarios. To face our worst fears now in the hopes we can handle them. And to give them the reverse Mush so they don't come true. 

In order of magnitude:

Worst Case No. 1: No free agents will come here.

Granted, the Patriots Dynasty has hardly been built around signing top tier free agents. By and large, Belichick has been content to let the lesser franchises go all in during the legal tampering period and then go in after and shop in the clearance bin. With notable exceptions like Stephon Gilmore, Adalius Thomas and Roosevelt Colvin. But still, New England has been an attractive place for veterans committed to winning and chasing a ring late in their careers. Chris Long being a prime example, famously telling his agent "I don't care if I play for five bucks; get me to New England." And Belichick has reportedly put fear into the cold, tiny hearts of agents, with a negotiation style that consists of him simply telling them, "If your guy wants to win, he'll sign here. If not, we'll find somebody else." That's a great pitch when you go to the conference title game every year and win multiple rings. But it's not much of a selling point when they guys they most wanted to play with just won a ring without you. When success, happiness, fun and great weather are options, it's fair to ask how many recruits will be drawn to your program when you're promising them "No Days Off" and outdoor practices in the middle of December? 

Worst Case No. 2: Any free agents that do come here will be expensive.

This is a corollary to No. 1. If there has been one problem this team has not run into over 21 years, it's been a bad contract. Not since the VP of Player Personnel gave Drew Bledsoe the richest contract in NFL history has Belichick found himself saddled with a bad deal. At least not the kind he couldn't get out from under with limited damage. (You might argue Darrelle Revis, but that was just a two year deal, he won a championship and the Jets took him off Belchick's hands just as his career went in the toilet.) Which is not to say he doesn't pay. He's given Brady, Logan Mankins and Vince Wilfork the richest deals ever at their positions. And signed and re-signed Gilmore. It's just that he's never had to overpay. To offer those deal sweeteners that it takes to get prime talent to sign with the less desirable franchises. And if history is any guide, guys who sign mostly for the money (Revis) have a nasty habit of underperforming while still eating up your payroll. Fiscally reasonable contracts with a high upside and no downside have given the Patriots a margin of error when it comes to guys who haven't worked out. That margin might be gone. 

Worst Case No. 3: They'll lose key players. 

Devin McCourty said a while back that he thinks all the players who took the Covid opt out will be back. But until that's official, it's not unreasonable to freak about the idea of going another season without Dont'a Hightower, Pat Chung, Brandon Bolden and Marcus Cannon. Losing Cannon would be mitigated by the addition of Michael Onwenu, who was a revelation. But fat lot of good that will do us if you also lose Joe Thuney and David Andrews, who are unrestricted free agents. It took the Franchise Tag to keep Thuney last year, so he's not giving off any Hometown Discount vibes. In addition to those UFAs, you've got James White, who would be damned near impossible to replace. And losing Lawrence Guy and Adam Butler at the same time would leave a massive crater in the D-line. And it's seemed inevitable all year that it would be Gilmore's last in Foxboro. Some of them are sure to be gone. It's a question of how much plasma you can lose before the patient bleeds out. 

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Worst Case No. 4: The young guys on offense don't develop.

I've cited the numbers before. But just to max out on the Exposure Therapy here, N'Keal Harry had fewer receiving yards in 14 games than Julian Edelman had in six. And has fewer yards (414) and as many TDs (four) in his 21 game pro career than Antonio Brown (484 yards, four TDs) had in half a season in Tampa. Gronk had twice as many touchdowns in the first 21 minutes of the Super Bowl (two) as the Patriots entire tight end depth chart did all season (one). The Patriots invested a ton of draft capital in Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene. And on the season they totaled 55 yards combined. Gronk had 67 Sunday Night, and he was Brady's TE2. Neither Harry nor Asiasi was considered a reach at the spot they were drafted. Their utter lack of production of the three of them so far can maybe be explained away by injuries in Harry's case, a disrupted rookie season in the tight ends' cases, or simply blamed on Cam Newton, if that's your jam. But it's appalling nevertheless. All three of them need to put on their big boy pants from Day One of minicamps and keep them on all year to earn their draft statuses. Or else there will be no recovering for them or this franchise. One season where the offense looks like it did in 2020 is more than enough for one lifetime. 

Worst Case No. 5: The young guys on defense don't develop. 

In some of the examples I'm about to cite, I'll use the term "develop further." Thanks to the opt outs and some injuries, some first year guys were relied upon more than they would have normally. Kyle Dugger looked like a legit three down starter. Josh Uche popped in the pass rush game, if not so much against the run. Same with Chase Winovich. Afernee Jennings looked good at times as an early down specialist, but then would disappear for stretches. Joejuan Williams still wallows in the lower middle of the depth chart, two seasons after being the 45th overall pick. For better or worse, they represent the core of Steve Belichick's defense for the forseeable future. If they can't establish themselves as reliable every down players, I defy you to tell me where else the help will come from. 

Worst Case No. 6: They can't get any difference makers in this draft.

Mock drafts are an exercise in futility. But in early February, they're all we have to go on. And for now, most of them put most of the real needle-movers out of the Pats reach at No. 15. The consensus blue chip TE Kyle Pitts (Florida) shouldn't make it out of the top dozen. At least four quarterbacks will go in the Top 10. Mac Jones (Alabama) might be available, but there are divided opinions on him and at best he'd be considered a reach in the middle of the 1st round. Most of the mocks I see have the Patriots taking LB Micah Parsons (Penn St.) to replace Hightower. Which is the last thing this fan base wants to hear after a season where they had 12 total touchdown passes. Two of which were thrown by Jakobi Meyers. 

Worst Case No. 7: They trade out of the 1st round. 

Forget what I just said. This is the last thing this fan base wants to hear. But a nightmare scenario where they have an impact player on offense available, only to drop back into the 2nd for a 3rd and a 4th next year or whatever and then draft a safety, is always in the realm of possibility.

Worst Case No. 8: Everyone retires, unretires and then gets traded to Tampa Bay. 

You can't tell me that Edelman hasn't at least considered it. 

There. Dwell on that for a while. And then when only some of these things happen, remind yourself it could be worse. And were it not for an accident of birth, we could all have been born Jets fans.