First off credit to me for knowing the pluralization of phenomenon. Kind of a fucked up word if we're being honest but that's a different blog. For now I want to focus on the opening coin toss which is presently offered on the Barstool SportsBook app at -103. Without confirming, I want to say that's the most even sided bet you can place on today's contest.
That's right. Of the thousand+ prop opportunities, the coin toss is the most balanced. Makes sense though when you think about basic arithmetic. Simple probability enthusiasts rejoice at the opportunity to talk about the purity of a coin toss. They're complete boners.
Run enough simulations and you'll get a perfect 50-50
Well then riddle me this, virgin data scientist. Where's your perfect split now?
Fact of the matter is the simple phrase Tails Never Fails has influenced the general public so much that we've collectively moved the needle on the fundamentals of simple probability. This is why the stock market experts say it's more about people than numbers. If life were just about numbers, this would be an even split. But fact remains there's enough ride or die TNF folks out there to influence the conversation. Whoever coined that phrase should be teaching a class at Harvard Business School and getting a blowjob assuming they have the requisite parts.
Personally I'm going to play tails tonight but that has a lot more to do with the average rotations on an unbalanced commemorative coin than it does with playground superstition. If I'm wrong so be it but my research indicates NFL official Carl Cheffers is heavy handed on the toss. Stiff wrist leads to robust action which often means tails. That's where the sharp money is and you guys are welcome to join me. Just promise you spend some time along the way giving Heads credit. They win about 50% of the time.