Welcome to a playoff edition of the stat lab. back to the lab. As I did in the regular seasons, I'll provide you guys in blog form with the stats I used on Advisors, plus some others, that I've found across various website and also through my own research from pouring through the data.
Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this.
Also if you're in Pennsylvania, Penn is doing an AWESOME promo this weekend. They will match any dollar amount for first time depositors today and tomorrow with a donation to the Barstool Fund that will go to struggling Pennsylvania businesses. You just have to bet your deposit amount this weekend to get the match.
Indianapolis Colts (11-5, 8-8 ATS) @ Buffalo Bills (13-3, 11-5 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
Betting against Josh Allen and the Bills is just not smart.
-Josh Allen is 26-12-2 ATS in his career. Since 2018 he’s been the most profitable QB with at least 25 starts
-In their last 14 games as a favorite, Bills are 13-1 SU and 10-4 ATS
-The Bills were tied for an NFL best 11-5 ATS this season
Los Angeles Rams (10-6, 9-7 ATS) @ Seattle Seahawks (12-4, 8-8 ATS)
4:40 PM on FOX
Betting against Russell Wilson in the playoffs is usually not a profitable endeavor.
-In his first playoff game of the postseason, Russell Wilson is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS
-Russell Wilson is 5-0 SU in home playoff games, with an average win of 11 points
The under is also worth a look here.
-Rams unders are 11-2 in their last 13 games. Only 1 of Seattle’s last 6 games has had over 43 points scored
-The under is 11-7-1 in the last 19 postseason games featuring divisional opponents.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5, 9-7 ATS) @ Washington Football Team (7-9, 9-7 ATS)
8:15 PM on NBC
All the history here says that the playoffs are usually good for bad teams (for a game)
-Since 2004, 8 win or worse playoff teams are 7-0 ATS in their first playoff game, 6-1 SU
-Since 1990, a 9-7 or worse team has hosted an 11-5 or better team eight times in the wild-card round. The home team went 6-3 in those games and 6-2-1 ATS
Baltimore Ravens (11-5, 10-6 ATS) @ Tennessee Titans (11-5, 7-9 ATS)
1:05 PM on ABC/ESPN
-This is the fifth playoff matchup between the NFL’s leading rusher (Derrick Henry) and leading rushing offense (Ravens). The leading rusher is 4-0, most recently last season Derrick Henry against the Baltimore Ravens
-In Tannehill’s 29 starts with the Titans, the over is 22-6-1. 11-2-1 at home
If you're looking for a reason to bet on the Ravens, this is it.
-John Harbaugh is 9-3 ATS in playoff road games, covering 6 straight
Chicago Bears (8-8, 8-8) @ New Orleans Saints (12-4, 9-7 ATS)
4:40 PM on CBS/Nickelodeon
Points could be abundant in this game.
-The over in dome playoff games is 29-12
-The over is 7-3 in Saints last 10 playoff games as a favorite
Cleveland Browns (11-5, 6-10 ATS) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4, 10-6 ATS)
8:15 PM on NBC
-Quarterbacks making their first playoff start (Baker Mayfield) against a quarterback who isn’t (Ben Roethlisberger) are just 13-32-1 ATS since 2002
-Browns 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games.
-Browns have failed to cover 8 straight divisional games
If you missed the playoff edition of Advisors, catch up here before kickoff.