Knee Jerk Reactions to Week 14: Patriots vs. Rams
Things to consider while recognizing that even at 6-7, the Patriots are still the Super Bowl for every team on their schedule:
--For the better part of the year, I've been asking whether it was possible in the modern era of pro football for a team to win just by staying on the ground, establishing the run, physically overpowering smaller defenses that are built to stop the spread offense, and only throwing the ball occasionally, as a sort of constraint play against a loaded box. And now I have my answer. It is a resounding YES. I just had the wrong team doing it.
--There was just so much going so terribly, terribly wrong here I could start anywhere. Most of the time after a Patriots loss you have to sift through the crash site looking for the black box to find the cause. This was such a catastrophic failure of every system it almost doesn't matter. You don't need experts from the FAA to tell you the engines all caught fire and fell off, the tail fin sheered off, the pilot was on drugs, the cabin lost pressure, the drink cart was out of liquor and the in-flight movie was "CATS." It would easier to write a report about what went right.
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--So I'll start with one of the obvious ones. When Cam Akers has 29 carries against you for 171 yards and a 5.9 average, you don't have to look much further to find out where things went sideways for you. In no way should this be taken as a knock on Akers, who's a second round rookie and a promising player. But when a guy more than doubles his previous career high in yards and is coming off a game where Arizona held him to a line of 21-for-71, 3.9 and you make him look like Peter Griffin playing Tecmo Bowl with Bo Jackson, all your other problems are sort of moot.
--In Super Bowl LIII, the Patriots threw stop sticks in front of one of the best offenses of all time by showing Jared Goff one look and then shifting to something entirely different at the snap, after he'd made his reads and adjustments. It was one of the great coaching jobs of all time. Bill Belichick the Alpha of the herd proving to his young rival Sean McVay he still had more velvet on his antlers and the pick of all the females. His Beta in that game was Brian Flores, who a few weeks ago beat McVay by playing a 6-1 base, putting a body in every gap to prevent the run, then sending extra rushers to force Goff to get the ball out before his routes developed.
--I expected at least one of those two approaches. Instead what we got was a lot of base 4-2-5 nickel, which simply couldn't handle McVay's two-tight end power run attack. Defenders losing one-on-one battles against blockers and some of the worst tackling of the season. To the Pats credit they made adjustments. At some point after Belichick huddled with his entire defense and threw a whiteboard to the ground as an exclamation point, they responded by forcing six punts on seven Rams possessions, with four of them being 3 & outs. But with no complimentary football coming from the other side of the ball, fat lot of good it did them.
--You know Belichick's frustration level reached a Chernobyl-level boiling point when he went from two masks - a hat on a hat - to looking like he was Tom Sizemore threating a bank manager in "Heat":
--The thing that disappointed me the most was the thing I've been feeling best about lately: The play of the rookies on defense. On the opening play of the Rams second drive, Anfernee Jennings came off the edge from the Will linebacker spot and was five steps into the backfield as Akers ran right inside him for 14. He was immediately swapped out for Tayshawn Bower who took the majority of the OLB snaps the rest of the way. I've said Kyle Dugger is already as good a run force defensive back as they've had in recent memory. I've seen him take on fullbacks and pulls from guards and tight ends coming at full speed and stood them right up to make stops. But there was a sequence in the 3rd where he twice got stoned by 196 pounds of Josh Reynolds in three plays. The first came out of a 3-TE alignment when Reynolds threw a wham block on Dugger that sprang Akers for six yards. After taking the next play at strong safety in a Cover-2, Dugger was back up in the slot at Robber, facing an I formation with Akers behind tight end Gerald Everett at fullback. Jennings again took out Dugger on the playside. Rob Havenstein threw a kickout on Jennings. Akers ran between them for 25 across midfield. And a mere 13 (!!!) plays later, they were in the end zone for the 24-3 lead and it was ballgame.
--By no means am I putting this exclusively on the young guys. I just single them out because they've been the thing to be most optimistic about. As my mother used to say every time she held a report card in her hand, "I'm not angry as much as I'm disappointed." If Josh Uche and Chase Winovich were offering IPOs, I'd invest heavily. But at this point the are both primarily situational pass rushers. And those situations were rare last night so they took just 16 and 24 snaps between them. Uche still managed two tackles. a TFL and a QB hit in the 1st half alone. But his time was limited because the Rams were keeping it on the ground. The bulk of the edge reps went to John Simon and the combination of Jennings and Bower. And none got it done. Case in point, Simon's non-tackle on just third play of the game was what filmmakers call "the establishing shot." The opening frame that sets the tone for the rest of the movie:
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Stephon Gilmore was sealed off by Robert Woods' block, but still did his job by getting on Woods' outside shoulder and forcing the ball back inside, but Simon couldn't wrap him up and Ju'Whaun Bentley was too late getting over and a long night was underway.
--So there were plenty of breakdowns to go around and I don't want to disproportionately put it on the last couple of draft classes. Take Akeem Spence, for instance. Backed up near his own goal line, facing a 4th & 1, after Goff went to a hard count trying to draw somebody offsides then calling a time out, the Rams tried it again. Goff might as well have called his shot. "Hey guys? That didn't work a minute ago but Coach and I talked about it and it's worth trying again before I hand it to Akers." It was the equivalent of Billy Jack telling that bad guy he's going to take his right foot and kick him in the head. And Spence walked right into it too.
--On a side note, I'll have to check the archives, but that is unofficially the most outdated and obscure subreference in the history of KJRs. And someday you can tell your grandkids you were here when it happened. Also, look up at least the first Billy Jack film. It's either the worst good movie or the best terrible movie ever made. With more redneck caricatures and preachy hippies per minute than anything Hollywood ever produced.
--The rookies and sophomores have been playing great lately. Four days ago in the same stadium, in particular. No one's career curve goes straight up without any drops. And to use the stock analogy again, I'm into these guys for the long term investment and won't dump my shares every time there's a downturn. I still say the core of the next great Patriots defense is on the roster right now.
--It sucks to get beaten so bad in all phases of a game by any team. But especially so when it's a loser franchise that doesn't even own the URL to their own team name.
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I guess Stan Kronke can build a $4 billion stadium but his money isn't enough to buy out the special interest tech giants at Big Ram.
--OK. [Deep breath. Gather myself.] Let's talk about the McOffense. I mean, we don't have to. If you're not up for it we can just skip it and talk about the Covid numbers and the new lockdown guidelines or whatever. Which would be just as much fun. Personally I'd rather talk about all the "Star Wars" content Disney is putting out because I for one was hoping that "Mandalorian" episode two weeks ago was setting up an Ahsoka Tano spinoff and it's going to be amazing, amirite? No? We have to talk about the this? Fine. I'll do it. But I want it on record that I'm doing this under protest.
--You could say that the Patriots have gotten one dimensional, but it wouldn't be fair. One dimension is used to represent a straight line, which is giving them too much credit right now. A line is infinite. Last night they were zero dimensional. Just a point on the graph that couldn't move. At least not against a Rams defense that is clearly elite.
--Rams DC Brandon Staley is a branch off the Vic Fangio coaching tree who with the Bears and Broncos had some of the league's best edge rushers at his disposal. Now he's got THE best interior rusher I've ever seen in Aaron Donald (so much better than even Warren Sapp ever was) and Michael Brockers next to him and Staley is an Amish farmer who's been gifted a bunch of John Deere tractors and threshers and an automated barn building robot. Sure, he can still do things the old fashioned way, but this is so much easier.
--The thing about Donald is you can put him in a 2i alignment on the guard's inside shoulder and just let him shoot the gap and he'll be effective. Or you can put him head up on the guard with Brockers as a 1-technique on the other side in an "Under" front, which effectively take the center off of him and leaves the guard on him one-on-one, essentially giving you three defensive ends. One of whom happens to be the most unblockable defender in the game. Staley did both of those things but also at times slid him out to the end, opposite Jermaine Eluemenor. And wherever Donald lined up, he and Brockers sewed chaos. Watch here as the Rams rush four, the Pats keep Damien Harris in for blitz pickup, and yet both he and Eluemenor miss a 6-foot-5, 305 pound force of nature streaking in with bad intent:
--While an insurance adjuster would say the offensive line was the at-fault party in this accident (and it's hard to believe this is 60% the same unit that rendered Donald and Brockers invisible in the Super Bowl), Cam Newton is not off the hook by any means. There's no hiding the fact that Josh McDaniels only trusts him to throw the under perfect conditions or extreme emergencies. Which is why you end up with three total points in four trips to the red zone. Which is why, at the end of a drive where you're gifted the ball at your 40 thanks to a kick out of bounds, you get four cracks at the end zone in a goal to go situation and not one of those attempts is a pass. Even though in downs 2, 3 and 4 were from the shotgun. Opposing defenses stopped worrying about the passing game weeks ago, have been playing straight 8-man boxes and just hoping Newton puts the ball in the air.
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--I'm allowing for the fact he was facing a Top 3 defense and utter breakdowns of his protection. But Newton doesn't get a total pass. Yes, he made some good throws. A 31 yard deep cross to Damiere Byrd, for one. But like Tony Gonzalez said in the postgame, every NFL quarterback can make those on occasion. It's the throws he doesn't make. Like missing a guy coming open and settling for the useless checkdown, which we've seen a lot of in the last month:
Or take this one for example:
--Newton simply isn't anticipating his receivers routes in a way he can deliver the ball on time. Even on an easy 3rd & 4 where he has to know Byrd is going to stop at the sticks underneath the coverage and show his numbers to the quarterback. Whether it's him being throw off by the pass rush or lacking confidence in his receivers or maybe having the yips after that terrible pick-6 or what, only he knows. My guess would be it's a combination of all those things and more. I won't get into whether they should make the switch at quarterback now. That's a question for another post. But if you missed the postgame, both Gonzalez and Terry Bradshaw said yes, they should.
--All I know that it was hard to watch for about the fifth week in a row. It was so frustrating that about the sixth or seventh time I saw that stunningly attractive couple exchanging Christmas presents in the middle of the snowy wildnerness (like we all do), I was rooting for that GMC truck to drive right over them and their stupid dog. This is what 6-7 is doing to me.
--This Week's Applicable Movie Quote: "That thing looked like The Manson Family Christmas Special." - Elliot Loudermilk, "Scrooged"
--In positive news, because it is the holiday season after all, N'Keal Harry did some things. Some positive things, I mean. And not just his obligatory penalty. (The inside of my bottle cap had "Offensive Holding." If you had "Block in the Back" on yours, you're a winner! Log onto HarrysWeeklyFlag.com/prizes to find out how to redeem yours!) He picked up a first down out of a "Tare" 3-man route combo, where the outside WR in a plus-split runs a clear out fade, the stack receiver in the middle runs a flat, and Harry in the slot slants. He got hammered by Jordan Fuller as he hauled it in, but caught it clean.
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--Then there was this, which is straight out of his highlight reel when they took him out of Arizona St.:
This wasn't just a simple crossing route or a pitch and catch on a stop route against off coverage. This was nice stutter step to make Darious Williams hesitate. He used his size to his advantage. His strong hands to win the 50/50. A professional wide receiver play. He almost made another on a 3rd & 8 go route from the 42 where he used footwork to bait Troy Hill into stopping and get over the top of him. But he got interfered with, no call. A play which begged the question, when does my "blatant DPI" become Joe Buck's "A little bit of a grab there"? I think the answer is "all the time."
--In other positive news, the Patriots special teams have been as good as we've ever seen, from all four units. I never thought I'd see anyone compare to Matthew Slater when it comes to covering punts, but Justin Bethel is the Jayna to his Zan. They activated their Wonder Twins Power to down one ball at the 1 and another at the 6 at the end of Jake Bailey's 71 yard punt. On a team with zero margin for error, guys like them will steal games. Just not 24-3 blowouts, unfortunately.
--Also, Myles Bryant has been a plus. Potentially another one of the Pats scouting department's finds out of the UDFA remainder bin. He's a dime package depth guy who seems to be on the field in the red zone and goal line quite a bit. Had 16 reps last night. And that interception was a pure effort play:
A straight up reenactment of the time in the 2004 playoffs when Tedy Bruschi ripped the ball out of Dominic Rhodes hands like a purse snatcher. It'll be interesting to see if Bryant's playing time increases.
--Alright, that's all the positivity I can muster after this one. Back to reality.
--Going into the season I kept thinking that, whatever other positions were weakened in by free agent departures and coronacootie opt outs, at least we knew that tight end would be an upgrade. It had to be. We were getting two new additions. The second and fourth off the board in the 2020 TE draft class. Even if you got, say, 60 receptions between the two of them, that would be a significant improvement over last year. Yeah. About that. Both Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene dressed for the first time all year. I tweeted before the game that I'd shotgun a beer for every catch they had. I ended up going to bed with a BAC of 0.0. (Side note: How do people get to sleep like that?) Jarrett Stidham took one shot at Asiasi (a nice PBU by Hill in trailing coverage). Neither quarterback looked for Keene. That's what we had to show for their 54 combined snaps. If you're keeping track, that makes one target for each of them on the year. So in response, I'm having some custom shoes made up that I'll be wearing during the Miami game on the 20th. On the right one, it's Asiasi catching a pass. On the left, Keene. My Cleats, My Cause.
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--I'm never going to say never, but with about a 9% chance of making the playoffs, are we supposed to start making plans for our weekends in January? I haven't done this in so long I don't remember how winter is supposed to work.
--I might as well end on this. There are a lot of mitigating circumstances I don't have space or time to explain. But this seems to reflect the mood everyone is in. So I'll cater to the mob.
We're onto … the last three weeks of a strange year.