NFL Week 5 already... fresh off a good college week for me, lets delve into the NFL. I found a game I absolutely love Sunday at 4:25 EST. Browns/Colts... lets get into it.
Currently at the Barstool Sportsbook, Indy is a 1 point favorite. The total sits at 48.
The Browns are rolling right now. After the week 1 blowout loss to the Ravens 38-6. they have won 3 in a row averaging 39.3 points per game. The rushing offense leads the NFL with over 200 yards per game and Baker Mayfield has been a game manager and hasn't turned the ball over. OBJ finally looks like the option we though he'd be in Cleveland. It's all coming up roses for the Browns.
This a concerning matchup for Indy for multiple reasons. First of all they are riddled with injuries to the players they need most in this game. Marlon Mack continues to be out, OT Anthony Costanzo is out and Darius Leonard will miss the game with a groin injury. Stopping the run against this Browns offense won't be easy without Leonard. Myles Garrett should feast on backup Le'Raven Clark and that should bother good old Phillip Rivers all day.
I'm sure you're thinking… but BMOC, the Colts lead the league defensively in points allowed per game. True, but this is a different animal. The Browns are tough everywhere and Indy has lucked out to face teams like the Jets, a bad Bears offense that couldn't move the ball and a Minnesota team that's 1-3. Oh yeah and lost to Jacksonville. I just think the Colts are overvalued and will struggle here keeping up.
One thing that also jumps out at me is how good Cleveland has been in the red zone. They rank 2nd in the league in red zone TD percentage. So basically how often you score 7 over a field goal The Browns have grabbed a TD 80 percent of the time they've been inside the 20. Finishing drives is important. Nobody wants fuckin field goals. Indy on the other hand has struggled, sitting at 28th in the league. This could be one of those games where Indy can't keep up.
Another big issue I see for the Colts is who defends OBJ? The Colts have lucked out so far not really facing a superstar wideout and a team with multiple big play receivers. Indy really just doesn't have a number one corner and it's been piecemealed with rookies and Xavier Rhodes. I also worry about the Leonard injury with the backers because not only do they have to stop a potent rushing attack but the Browns have two really good tight ends in Austin Hooper and Hunter Bryant. Mayfield should feast in the play action pass game.
I know the elephant in the room is the Browns defense. My thought here is that Myles Garrett terrorizes a backup and gets plenty of pressure making Phillip Rivers day hell. If I'm Cleveland I also consider benching Sendejo. He's been a complete mess. Give Bama safety Ronnie Harrison a shot. Though I also don't necessarily worry a ton about the Colts offense. They for the most part have been poor and TY Hilton has been a nonfactor. They just can't keep up to me here.
I'm absolutely unaware as to why the Browns are a dog at home.
I'm playing Cleveland here +1 (-110)
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