Can't believe we are already into October. College football is a freight train. Let's hope I don't jinx it by saying that. We are just a few weeks away from all but a few teams in play and things are heating up.
For anyone complaining about where the picks are, I post them every week have a provide a deep dive of the games or game I'm playing. Through 2 weeks, I'm 1-0-1 with more to come. This is a primer to help you out in some of your preparation.
BYU is a 5 TD favorite this week against UTSA. Bookmakers have completely caught up to them. Through the last couple weeks, they have been -14 and -24 and have averaged 49 points per game. This week, the number is much higher and the question for most is seemingly when is the number too high for them? UTSA is a group that has played an FCS team, 2 Conference USA teams and a bad team from the Sun Belt. An obvious major step up spot here for the Roadrunners. Keep in mind they have been a solid offense but as I said the opponents haven't been good. For years, BYU has been a plodding offense with spotty QB play. Well not anymore... Zach Wilson is a budding star and this offense is high flying. Obviously to cover 35, we know what you need...50 ish points and a good defense. All positives for the Cougars. If you look at BYU's opponent last week, LA Tech they only managed 14 and UTSA's offense isn't LA Tech. I'd lean BYU, ill hope this numbers falls a bit to get involved though.
Temple is finally playing this season! The Owls haven't actually played a game yet and they are actually in a decent spot here with plenty of time to prepare for Navy. I got partly screwed last week after Navy didn't report anything about starting QB Dalen Morris who was supposedly injured and didn't make the trip. I ended up getting a push on my total selection, but it should've won. Fast forward to this week, the Capital Gazette is reporting that Morris is fine and will start. With that said, with weeks to prepare you have to have some interest in Temple. Temple welcomes back most of their offense from last season. Defensively they have some question marks, but so does Navy which I talked about last week. I'm looking at points in this game with strong QB play back for Navy and a senior QB with weapons for Temple. Through 3 games, the Naval Academy has given up 40 points per game. From a pace perspective Navy is pretty slow, but they've thrown a lot more and last season Temple was 30th in plays per game. Sounds like a 31-27 type of game.
The biggest game of the weekend is Miami/Clemson. Miami has been one of the great stories of the season thus far. But..... they've done it against Florida State, UAB and Louisville. Though they are getting a generous impost of points here and Clemson has been faulty against the number, Miami looks real and can score in a hurry as we've seen. The issue the Canes have here is how do they handle the step up in teams and how does the defense adapt? Miami lost a ton of quality on that side due to the draft and COVID. Miami offensively has moved the ball but this will likely come down to their ability on third down which hasn't been great. Miami was a dog last season 3 times, they covered all of them. Clemson is a different animal though. I've said in the past, public dogs generally die, I get the feeling that's what happens here. Clemson laying 14 may be a bargain.
Duke is a favorite this week at Syracuse. The Blue Devils are one of three teams in the country that are 0-4 against the number. They look frail and boring on offense and defensively they've been rocked. They were a favorite once laying 3.5 and lost 26-6. I have zero fucking interest in this group regardless of who they play. And in the fact, it's on the road. The game will likely come down to turnovers and big plays for Duke. If your betting on that happening, the value is on Cuse.
Good luck in week 6, I'll have my selections out Friday or Saturday, bet responsibly.