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Navy - BYU (8:00 PM) Betting Preview

This past weekend, I bet against Army.

That was dumb of me.

Looking at the circumstances, Army was the play the entire way. If you're looking for a team to shine early in this pandemic season, it's the team that has existed inside a bubble for their entire college career. The good news is I get to right that bad decision tonight.

BYU (-1.5) @ Navy

Total: 48.5

Time: 8:00 PM, ESPN

Navy will be without Malcolm Perry for the first time in what feels like a decade tonight. Their former QB has graduated and is a loss for the Midshipmen, but thanks to the plug-and-play nature of the triple-option offense, Navy won't miss him that much. 

Let's look at BYU's defensive line numbers from 2019

Line Yards: 2.73 (102nd)

Stuff Rate: 16.7% (107th)

These two #s are the most important indicators of potential success against the triple-option. You will see that on the offensive side, Navy ranks:

Line Yards: 2.85 (16th)

Stuff Rate: 16.3% (30th)

I fully expect Navy to slowly triple-option BYU to death, even without Malcolm Perry. Navy also has the advantage that BYU didn't have enough time to prep for the triple-option offense. 

Zach Wilson is a pretty good QB for BYU, however Navy returns 65% of their defensive production from the 2019 season, which ranked 49th in FEI's advanced defensive rankings last year

Play: Navy +1.5

2020 CFB: 1-4, -3.4 units