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Thursday Night College Football Gambling Preview

Central Arkansas @ UAB (-21.5)

Total: 49.5

Time: 8:00 PM, ESPN3

Yes, this is the same Central Arkansas you watched on Saturday night. They're back again just a few days later for a tilt against UAB.

21.5 is a lot to lay on a UAB team that has an offense that projects to be the 119th worst in the country according to SP+. UAB should still be a solid CUSA team this year thanks to their defense that projects 28th in the country. That's where I think the value lays in this game...betting on UAB's defense. 

Central Arkansas looked sloppy on Saturday night from the offensive perspective and I don't think much can change over a 4-day span. They averaged over 5 yards per play against Austin Peay, but the change in the quality of competition is going to be a big wake up call for them. Central Arkansas also saw only 1 TD scored when they entered into the red zone this past weekend and that was on their last drive. Prior to that, they stalled almost on the dot once they got into Austin Peay territory. UAB ranked 29th last year in points per scoring opportunity (once the opponent passes your 40-yard line) on defense. 

I see a 24-7, 31-10 game. UAB could blow them out, but I'm just a bit concerned with a shaky offense in its 1st game with limited practice time. I'll take the UCA team total under. 

Play: Central Arkansas Team Total u14

South Alabama @ Southern Miss (-13.5)

Total: 55.5

Time: 9:00 PM, CBSSN

I believe an early trend of this season is offenses looking mega sloppy. Yeah, it was an FCS game, but we saw it on Saturday in the Central Arkansas - Austin Peay game. This was a reallllyyyy weird offseason thanks to COVID and having everyone on the same page on offense is harder than it looks.

Both these teams ranked in the bottom half of seconds per play in 2019. They both struggled in points per scoring opportunity. Their offenses project as 96th and 122nd according to SP+. 

Not that I'm complaining, because it's college football, but this is going to be the nightcap of really sloppy football today. 

Play: Under 55.5