College Football Betting Primer: Early Picks For Week 1

We are back for another season. Here's what we've done over the past 3 years:

2019: 142-123 (53.6%, +5.39 Units), Bowls: 22-19

2018: 95-80-4 (54.6%, +7.65 Units), Bowls: 17-15-1 (53%) 

2017: 67-49-2 (57.8%, +14.2 Units), Bowls: 9-6-1 (60%) 

Overall: 304-252 (54.7%), +27.24 units

Last year was another positive season but was highlighted by the whole Akron thing. I'll forever get shit about that and it's deserved, but the goal for this year is another positive season.

Week 1 is kind of bare, but I do have a few spots I like early in the week:

SMU -22:

This is a rematch from last year when SMU completely dominated Texas State:

3 turnovers, still won by 30 thanks to outgaining Texas State by almost 400 yards.

Texas State's defense is returning the 4th least production from last year, while SMU's offense? 35th most production this year. 

I think this should be up in the 24-28 range. Anything under 24 is a good bet.

Middle Tennessee +3.5:

A lot of people are going to be on Army here and I get it. If you want a team that is going to be disciplined through these chaotic times, it's going to be a service academy. MTSU hasn't had a lot of time to prepare for the triple-option, but I think 3-weeks is enough.

On top of that, Middle Tennessee wasn't great last year, specifically against the pass, ranking 90th in PPA (Predicted Points Added) on passing plays and 101st in passing success rate allowed. The good news is that they won't have to face the pass against Army, obviously. Army will have to face the pass against MTSU, who ranked 90th in passing explosiveness allowed last year and 88th in PPA on passing plays. I'm not really breaking any news here, but Army isn't great defensively. They rank as the 106th worst projected defense coming into the year by SP+ thanks to losing their leading DB and LB. That will be an issue going up against MTSU's QB Asher O'Hara, who broke out last year.

O'Hara ranked 40th among FBS QBs in predicted points added in 2019, ahead of QBs like Jaime Newman, Jake Fromm, and Bo Nix.

I expect a close game here and could see MTSU stealing a victory against a team that has historically been awful as a favorite (hitting below 36% since 2005).