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How NFL Team Betting Odds Shifted After The Draft (Or Not)

Writer's note: For those who don't know me, I'm an NFL gambling intern for Carl in Chicago. Follow on Twitter @DopeRopesChi

Whether you think your team dominated the draft (Cowboys/Bengals/Colts/Ravens/Browns) or fucked it up royally (Packers/Steelers/Seahawks/Bears/Eagles), you should probably just chill out... just chill out.

What happens in the draft has minimal impact on the NFL betting market. Looking at projected team wins before the draft vs. after the draft, there have been ZERO line shifts. I've done this in past years, and "no change" after the draft is the norm. If your team was gonna fuck heavy before the draft (Chiefs & Ravens at 11.5 wins), they're still gonna fuck heavy after the draft (still at 11.5 wins). If your team was a joke before the draft (Panthers/Bengals/Jags/Redskins at 5.5 wins), they're still a joke after the draft (still 5.5 wins).

Here are the reasons for that:

  • Oddsmakers already accounted for draft equity prior to the draft. They knew that Burrow and Young would be the first two picks off the board, and they knew that the Raiders/Dolphins/Vikings/Niners/Jags would benefit from multiple first-round draft picks. Conversely, shoutout to teams like the Bears - you can't hurt your team with a bad pick on Day 1 if you don't draft on Day 1. That's big brain stuff.
  • Your team's success relies much more heavily upon organizational strength, coaching staff, and existing roster than it does on the addition of a few rookies.
  • Yes, your team added a nice group of young players, but so did every team in the NFL. A rising tide lifts all boats, or whatever that phrase is.
  • Deeper rounds are a crapshoot. No matter how much you've scouted a guy, there's always going to be a low level of predictability of on-field impact. This applies to all teams.

Looking at Super Bowl odds, the only notable shift is the Cowboys improving from +2800 to +2000. Some public favor makes sense for America's team landing a splashy name in the first round, but I'd recommend that you keep your money in your pocket until Dallas makes a change in their meddling ownership (never).

Oh, and I forgot that I have good news for Lions fans. Your Super Bowl odds improved as well... from +15000 to +10000. Your likelihood to hoist the Lombardi Trophy has graduated from bottom-6 to bottom-7.

But you tailgate in hot tubs, and no one can take that away from you.

This draft will undoubtedly help all teams, but it likely won't change the course of your team's success this season as compared to previous projections. Except, of course, for the Bears - minimum 20 TD's for Cole Kmet. Don't worry about us having 10 tight ends and a question mark at QB.