Four step simulations below
Sometimes its hard to understand things that are way above your pay grade. With so much misinformation about Corona Virus, and so many people politicizing it, its hard to know whats what. I dont know whats true, whats false, whats being framed in a way blame someone for this, or what the answers are. I am smart enough to know what I dont know. Smart enough to know when I'm dumb and talking about a field that I dont understand at all. So I need things broken down for me like the dummy that I am. I need pictures and charts and graphs and data that explicitly show me whats going on and how to handle it. So last night I was reading this article in the Washington Post by this cat Harry Stevens, and I truly believe its the most informative, educational, interesting and easily digestible piece of material on the the internet tackling the Corona Virus. Matter of fact, even Barack Obama tweeted it out:
And the reason this article is getting attention is that there are simulations embedded in the article illustrating the spread of Corona Virus. Every time you open the link, the simulations run again. They arent just a video or a GIF on loop. Its actually what I guess you would call an experimental simulation thats being run every time. It shows you 4 different stages of the corona virus spreading - 1) a total free for all with everyone living their normal lives 2) a forced quarantine, 3) 3/4 of the population participating in "self distancing" and 4) 7/8 of the population participating in self distancing.
First up, they show an example of how the bouncing balls represent humans with the virus, and then people who have recovered:
Now, here's where shit gets wild. This is a simulation showing what would happen if everyone continued to go out to the bars, continue to party, socialize, gather in large groups, commute, work, date, etc etc. Just living life with no changes:
Look how fucking fast that shit popped off! Reminds me of when you're playing one of those Brick Blaster games and your balls multiply into other balls and just eradicate all the bricks. Well, we are the bricks and we are getting absolutely butt blasted. I mean look how fat this curve is!
That curve THICC! Double cheeked up. We all know we gotta FLATTEN THE CURVE. Gotta get this thing looking like the ass of a white woman named Susan from the 1980s. So why dont we quarantine the sick? A full, forced quarantine were you separate the people:
Honestly, this was the one that taught me the most. I figured full blown quarantine was the best option. And I still think, medically, literally speaking, it is. But its also not very plausible to fully force that many people into quarantine. At least in a country like this where law enforcement and armed forces cant just physically threaten you into isolation. So quarantines are good in theory but they are not really possible. Which means we end up scaring everyone when they are forced into seclusion, panic ensues, and it ends up not working anyway. Too many drawbacks and too much ineffectiveness to risk the negative consequences of quarantine.
So, third option…SELF DISTANCING. Self distancing is cool as fuck. If 3/4 of the population stays home, limits any interaction with people to necessities only, stays 6-10 feet from people at all times, and never goes anywhere over 250 people, the spread slows down DRAMATICALLY:
Look how much time that gives the healthcare professionals to combat this thing! At this point we are not trying to stop the disease, we just want to slow it down so that it gives us enough time to develop treatments and allocate our resources properly. Under self distancing, theres no flood of sick patients to the emergency room, theres no shortage of beds or ventilators, and doctors and nurses arent working 24 hours a day rundown and overwhelmed because of the number of sick people.
So if 3/4 is that effective, imagine 7/8:
Curve lookin like Kyrie Irving's planet earth. Curve lookin like your 7th grade girlfriend who wore a bra even those she didnt need to. Motherfuckin FLAT. I never knew what the curve was or why it was thick or how to flatten it. But now that I got all those answers, I wanna flatten the fuck out of it. I'm addicted to flattening curves.
I think it will talk a combination of (2) and (4). I think the government will need to step in and toss out a couple curfews and mandates and maybe threaten with fines and punishments if people continue going out, all while simultaneously we all take it upon ourselves to do our part as well.
And the best part is…the solution to this problem and the tactics to help flatten the curve? DO NOTHING, MAN.
To recap - the really smart people who understand this stuff and know what they are talking about are flat out telling you that all of the "Its no more dangerous than the flu!" and "This is nothing but fear mongering from the media!" is incorrect. They are telling you its a major problem, with far reach butterfly effect complications that can kill thousands of people. They are asking for your help to fight this. And the ONLY thing they are asking you to do, is sit on your couch. You dont have to volunteer your time. You dont have to put yourself in harms way. You dont have to word hard and get your hands dirty. They are just asking you to watch. television. Do you realize how fucking incredible that is??? Its the first time in human history you can be a HERO without ever leaving the couch. As a matter of fact, you can be a hero BECAUSE you'd dont leave the couch. Its the opportunity of a lifetime.
Its pretty scary that you can tell people "Old people are dying, kids in schools will be effected, hospitals will be overrun and the entire economy will collapse" and their first thought is just about themselves, their social life, their gym schedule, and going out to their favorite bar. I'm no hero by ANY means and even I find this to be pretty narcissistic. You cant inconvenience yourself for a couple weeks in order to STOP PEOPLE FROM DYING??? Which brings me to my second scary point: this is basically like, day fucking ONE of trying to stop this thing. If we had been quarantined for like 6 weeks and people went stir crazy I'd understand. But it was the FIRST fucking day! That whole sect of the population couldnt stop thinking about themselves for legitimately one single day. Thats a frightening level of self importance, and a crazy lack of priorities in your life.
I dont want to be too dramatic here but when you're one of these people who say that this is the government trying to control you & that this is encroaching on your freedom… and then you think about men and women in the armed forces and people who enlist, you gotta really feel like a bag of shit, right? I mean throughout history there was times when lives were being lost overseas and a threat was coming to our doorstep and people rushed for a chance to go fight and stop that massacre from happening. Lying about their ages and desperate to get out there and directly contribute and help the cause. Well this is obviously a different threat, and like I said I dont wanna be dramatic, but the idea still stands. Lot of suffering going on in other countries, looming threat (thats already here) impacting our way of life, and nobody is asking you to pick up a gun or risk life and limb or DO ANYTHING AT ALL. They just want you to stay inside, drink, watch TV, play games, have sex and sleep. Like, take the deal, assholes. Take the deal. Say yes. Its not too much to ask.
PS - I feel like I need to clarify what I said in the video above - that self distancing doesnt mean hiding under your bed with no contact to anyone in the outside world. It means stay 6-10 feet away from people, dont go anywhere with big crowds, and only go out when its necessary. If you work a job where the show MUST go on, then go to work. If you MUST go out to eat, pick a restaurant thats not too crowded and keep your distance and wash your hands. I wish I had an answer for everyone in the service industry or jobs that really require humans congregating and having contact with each other. Sometimes, during tragic circumstances, you get fucked. Thats whats happening right now to a lot of people working those sort of jobs. My heart goes out to you, thats an impossible spot to be in. Risk you literal health or your financial health…thats a real Sophie's Choice. BUT I will say this - one way or the other, the economy is fucked and your money is gonna get tight. Either from voluntarily shutting things down now, while we are still slightly ahead of this disease and stopping it from truly taking over….or, by just continuing your regular lives, fattening the curve, ravaging the healthcare system, and ruining the economy until it collapses. Then your job and your money are are jeopardized for a LOT longer of a time period. If the government could somehow subsidize or forgive debts and payments etc etc in the short term, press pause on the whole world for a quick couple weeks, and then resume, we'd probably dodge a big ass bullet, and we wouldnt fuck over the people working in those industries or the people in that tax bracket. I have no idea if they are considering that or if something like that is even feasible, I'm just saying there has to be a better solution for people in those circumstances other than "Lets just contribute to the spread of a deadly disease so I can still make my tips."
Stay Healthy. Stay Lazy. Team Indoors For Life.