In 2016, the popular voting in the Democratic primary was very close, but the Super Delegates were mostly awarded to Hillary Clinton, making it impossible for Bernie Sanders to secure the nomination even if he had gotten more votes than he did. It also ended up suppressing Bernie voters later in the primary process once it was clear nothing could be done to overtake that Super Delegate padding.
Now, in 2020 even though the rules have been amended to be more “fair", the DNC/Democratic Party has made a strategic move to pull all the moderate candidates competing for votes with Joe Biden (Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar) and have them endorse Biden to help him better compete with Bernie Sanders. At the same time as Supercharging Biden, Liz Warren remains in the race to siphon votes from Bernie since all of her policies are basically the same as his.
SO, all the DNC/Party has to do, is make sure that Biden gets enough votes, and Warren siphons enough would-be Bernie votes, to ensure that Bernie does not get over 50% of the total delegate load. If he doesn’t get a simple majority, under the new DNC primary rules, then they get to use super delegates to elect the nominee.
Basically, deja vu (2016) all over again, and it makes me wonder why you’d even vote in the Democratic primary at this point? Seems like the party will just assert a method of control to get what they want anyway… BUT WILL IT WORK?? Can Bernie beat the DNC? It’s like a real life David vs. Goliath.
SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE 2020 ELECTION??
With Klobuchar leaving the race, it clears the path for a Bernie win in Minnesota, BUT it also improves Joe Biden’s chances to win Texas. Texas and California are the big dogs tomorrow. Klobuchar and Mayor Pete will be stumping for Biden in Texas to try and help him unseat Bernie’s narrow lead there before they hit the polls tomorrow.
Bernie needs lots of delegates out of Texas, Virginia, Minnesota and North Carolina to have a shot at a true majority, and not having the nomination essentially taken away for the second time in a row. Not only that, he needs to DOMINATE California to get the most delegates as possible where the main Liz Warren vote siphoning operation is being led by Jack Black.
I’d say it’s looking like 60-70% that the party locks Bernie out again, but I like the moxy from the Bernie crowd, maybe they can survive the onslaught from the party this time around…. We will find out tomorrow!
In the long term, I think if the Ds go to a contested convention essentially 8 years in a row against a candidate that legitimately half the party supports, you’re gonna want to take all your bets and switch them to a Trump repeat in 2020. If you want to do that or bet on any election, go to our $20 matching deal at PredictIt and have $40 to play with in the stock market of politics.
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