Deciding Between Jaylen Brown And Jayson Tatum For An All Star Spot Feels Wrong And Is Getting Harder By The Day

With the All Star game quickly approaching, I think it's fair to say that the Boston Celtics, owners of a 56 win pace, are going to have multiple selections. We know Kemba is a lock, so really the debate shifts to a topic that honestly makes me sad. We're going to be forced to decide between Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown for that second spot. The easy answer is probably one you might be asking yourself

but even my homerism can't overrule the reality that there is no chance the Celts get three players selected. I'd love for that to happen, but it's not realistic which is why we are in this pickle. How do you choose between your two favorite sons? One of them is going to get boned so we may as well start accepting that fact, but who is more deserving? If you asked me a few weeks ago I would have said Jaylen without hesitation. He may not get the love nationally, but his season was better than Tatum's. Different roles for sure, but when you are throwing up production only matched by LeBron/AD/Giannis/KAT, that feels like an All Star to me. A career year basically across the board, Jaylen's leap is real and there's no two ways about it.

But here's the thing. Tatum has come to life since his slow start. It's clear when you watch him that he has the #1b option role, and the improvements he's made as a defender are real and make him a legit two way threat. That's not to say Jaylen isn't either, but to me Tatum's defensive leap has been greater. So who should get the nod? Well I figured the best way to come to a conclusion is to look at everything, see where the numbers actually fall and if that makes things a little more clear.

Let's start with the basics

Pretty even when you look at both their basic stats. This is where I feel like you have to lean Jaylen because he's giving you similar production with less usage. But that doesn't exactly tell the whole story. The crazy part is even looking at their advanced numbers, things are still ridiculously close

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You wouldn't be crazy if you were still leaning toward's Jaylen. But let's go deeper. I was curious how this team performed in terms of their on/off numbers. Here's what I learned 

Jaylen on/off: Offense slightly worse when he's off (112.8 vs 110.2), defense considerably better (106.3 vs 101.0), and net rating better when he's off (6.4 vs 9.2). 

Tatum on/off: Offense worse when he's off (112.9 vs 106.1), defense considerably worse (101.8 vs 107.3), net rating drastically worse when he's off (11.1 vs -1.2)

So you could make the case that while Jaylen may have better numbers by a small margin, the impact of Tatum is greater, which makes sense given his role. If you look at both since about the middle of November when Tatum's layup issues started to go away, they are basically the same offensively, but Tatum is way ahead in terms of Drtg, net rating, AST% etc. You look at how he's performing recently with multiple 20+ point 50% shooting outings and I'm not so sure his slow start around the rim in the first month of the year is enough to snub him from being an All Star. 

Looking deeper, I was curious if while looking at defense, there was anything that would help paint a clearer picture other than rating since that's basically a result of the rest of the lineup. Opponents are shooting 5.1 percentage points worse while being defended by Tatum, while only 1.0 percentage points worse with Jaylen. Tatum also has nearly 30 more deflections (115 vs 86), has way more loose ball recoveries (40 vs 17) and is second on the team in total contested shots at 299 to Jaylen's 252. 

There's no denying Jaylen has Tatum beat when it comes to offensive efficiency, but who knows if there would still be that gap if Jaylen was taking 18 FGA a night rather than 14. The way Tatum has come on in recent weeks is what makes this so tough because both are absolutely deserving, but I think when you look at everything from the actual averages, to the advanced metrics, to the impact, I think if I had to choose right this second I have to go with Tatum. This could change in a week given how close these two are, and really in my opinion there's no wrong answer which is certainly a good problem to have.

Danny Ainge gets a lot of flack for not drafting an All Star, and one way or the other that narrative is going to die this season. I wish we lived in a world where we wouldn't be forced to choose, and maybe we get a prayer and somehow they both get in. Since that's unlikely, who would you give the nod to?