Okay Jason here isn’t your typical insider. But I know for a 100% grade A fact that he has been dead on with info in the past. In fact, this tweet was the ipso facto reason Joc Pederson wasn’t playing for the Sox in 2019:
This deal was 99% complete. I also know that for a fact. But other teams sniffed this exact tweet out, beat the Sox offer, and then injuries caused the Dodgers to hold on to Pederson anyways. It sucked – the White Sox were historically bad in right field last year. Having Joc out there would have been awesome. Moral of the story is this: if Jason says something is true, someone credible has gotten him that information.
But still, what does a trade for JD Martinez look like? If Kinander is correct, the Red Sox would more than likely have to get Martinez to waive his newly revised no trade clause:
Sucks, but is what it is. Gotta get your sales hat on, Rick. But as it stands right now, with the White Sox *apparently* still pursuing him, he wouldn’t cost much at all in prospect capital to acquire. Martinez opting in paired with the Red Sox being hellbent on shedding payroll so they can *maybe* retain Mookie next year equals “take him off our hands for jack shit”. That, plus…
…Everyone knows that at this very juncture there you can automatically cross off 16 teams in the JD Martinez sweepstakes; all NL teams (15) and the Red Sox (16). Can also take the Yankees off (17) because there’s no chance in hell Boston trades him to them. That makes 13 teams left. After that?
Tigers? Nope, rebuild
Twins? Nope, Nelson Cruz DH
Royals? Nope, rebuild
Indians? Maybe? Kinda makes sense here actually?
White Sox? YES ALL GODDAMN DAY
Red Sox? Nope
Rays? Nope, too competitive in same division
Orioles? Nope, rebuild
Jays? Nope… I don’t think
Angels? Nope, Ohtani DH
Mariners? Nope, rebuild and Vogelbach DH even though he kinda stinks
A’s? Nope, Kris Davis DH
Astros? Nope, Brantley/Alvarez DH
Rangers? Yep, good fit
Supply and demand. Econ101. Literally only a handful of teams on there that make any sense at all. So pursuing Martinez from the White Sox perspective, in spite of them more than likely being on his NTL, should still be a gimme. A goddamn layup. But with his market so minuscule, if a team were to take on the remaining $62.5MM owed to him, Boston could very well just have to give him away.
JD Also has an opt-out after next year too. That puts two wrinkles in this whole thing. One, the White Sox aren’t going to want to trade for a rental. Makes no sense. Two, the opt out potential after 2020 lowers the cost of acquisition that much more.
They would have been all over him if he elected for free agency a few days back, so if they can lure him from Boston via trade, I’d look to immediately extend him for what their offer to him would have been as a free agent. Something like 4 years, $85MM or so. Truly might not even have to go *that* high, and probably why he played it safe and opted in. Just find a number that makes sense for both parties. One that turns him from a rental into a long term piece.
If they did jump on a 4 year deal for him, that’d hypothetically guarantee JD about $20MM more than what he’d have gotten paid under his current contract, and Boras could (and probably should) tell free agency to fuck off and take that. The AAV might be a tick lower, but that should be fine as the final sum is more. That’s against the grain for a Boras client, but DH’s over 30 have seen their market value plummet in recent years. Even Boras guys that can play a position like Mike Moustakas haven’t gotten big pay days. Boras has fucked up for his clients more than once in the last few free agency periods on this front.
So yeah. Still holding out hope. Fuck. I said I wouldn’t get my hopes up this winter, but the conjecture is killing me at the same time. I need to fast forward to the winter meetings and then to March. If this doesn’t work out, shift to Castellanos so I can laugh in Cubs’ fans faces. MLB free agency will be the death of me.