The Chicago Cubs Are On A Killing Spree
A picture says a thousand words and this one’s no different. The Chicago Cubs are blazing hot over their last 19 games and for the first time in what feels like forever, the Cubs are back to completely fucking people up.
Over this stretch, the Cubs are 14-5 with an MLB leading 2.35 ERA while holding opponents to 1.08 WHIP which would rank 7 spots (13th) ahead of Max Scherzer (1.17) for the 2019 season. I spent a lot of time this week on Red Line Radio going deep on the pitching staff and rightfully so.
The details start around the 58 minute mark. For now I want to get deep on the Mariners series, Steve Cishek, David Bote and the next 10 games.
On to the series…
- Cubs Outscore Mariners 17-5 – this is naturally misleading because game 2 was an 11-0 beatdown but at the same time I know it’s better to look at the series from 30,000 feet. If the Cubs lose the first game 5-4, I’m still applauding the 15-5 run differential because it tells me they’ve got the Curb Stomp gene… the last time the Cubs shut a team out and scored 11+ runs was in April 2016.
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Fortunately, we don’t need to applaud silver linings because Kyle Schwarber eats mistakes for breakfast aka 85mph changeups right down broadway
But unfortunately for Schwarber, that’s just about the only thing he can hit right now while his walk rate dips from 14% to 8% and his OPS+ is down 20% from career 110 to 88 for 2019. For you non-math guys, OPS+ is a measure against league average (100). If you’re 110, that means your 10% better than league average. 88 means 12% worse. So it’s not good right now but I have fantastic news.
Theo likes Schwarber. Don’t make me write 500 words on why that should be convincing enough for you. Just go with it.
– Steve Cishek WANTS IT (warning, you’re about to enter a Steve Cishek wormhole)
Talk all the shit you want about the fist pumping. Fact is when you get a 4 out road save against a very good team after personally sucking to start the year and being personally responsible for multiple losses, you can go bananas. But only for a hot second. You can’t start doing back flips and shit. Cishek got the celebration right.
And again, if you’re going to talk shit about Cishek taking it too far, consider this: The Cubs were 0-4 in his first 4 appearances and are now 9-0 over his last 9. Let’s talk about those last 9 appearances because it’s been a crazy stretch.
First, you need to know about a baseball stat called Win Probably Added that MLB explains as:
WPA quantifies the percent change in a team’s chances of winning from one event to the next. It does so by measuring the importance of a given plate appearance in the context of the game. For instance: a homer in a one-run game is worth more than a homer in a blowout.
As an example: When Josh Donaldson came to the plate in the bottom of the ninth on May 26, 2015, the Blue Jays trailed by two and had men on second and third with no one out. That gave them a 43-percent win expectancy. After Donaldson’s walk-off homer, their win expectancy jumped to 100 percent. Because Donaldson boosted the Blue Jays’ chances of winning by 57 percent, his WPA for that plate appearance was 0.57.
A player’s WPA can also be affected on the basepaths. It will increase if he steals a base but decrease if he is caught stealing or picked off.
I like using WPA to compare relievers because so much of relief pitching is context specific meaning it’s all about circumstance. Are there runners on? How many outs? What’s the score… each situation is different. WPA accounts for that.
Another nice thing – it’s cumulative meaning you add it up over time. One game could be bad, one good, etc. You could add 40% one game, subtract 10% the next, subtract another 10% again, and on and on.
In his last 9 appearances, Cishek has logged 10.1 innings and added 0.577 WPA. If you break that down per inning, it’s .056. Here’s how that compares to some notable seasons:
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– Jake Arrieta 2015 = .033
– Aroldis Chapman 2016 Cubs = .021
– Craig Kimbrell 2018 = .056
So basically what I’m saying is Steve Cishek has technically been as valuable to the Cubs in the last 9 games on the same level as Craig Kimbrell was over the entire 2018 season to the Boston Red Sox based on WPA/inning pitched. *Probably* not sustainable but that’s not the point.
Point is Steve Cishek can pump his fist all he wants.
What else.
The Cubs Are 10-4 When David Bote Plays A Full Game
I talked extensively last week about how Joe Maddon is creating lineups on a series-by-series basis this year, which is different than years prior when players would get a text the night before if they were in the lineup or not.
The shift is a nod to not just better player relations, but also because the data is that much better. Even so, I’m willing to bet Bote gets more starts over the 10-game homestand coming up and that’s acknowledging he hasn’t even been that good over his 5 starts on the 5 game road trip. Remember WPA? His was -.24 in that stretch.
BUT, the Cubs are extremely hot right now and I expect Joe to stay with what’s working. Right now that’s KB getting more time in the outfield because you essentially get to pick between Almora and Bote now that Heyward’s crushing lefites (.381/.409/.524 in 83 plate appaearances).
Right now, Bote > Almora and it’s not close:
Bote: 79 plate appearances, 116 OPS+
Almora: 81 plate appearances, 58 OPS+
The defense is worse with Heyward in CF, Bryant in RF and Bote at 3rd vs. Almora in CF. But is it TWICE as bad? No. Not by a longshot. So for now, Bote stays.
What else.
The Next 10 Games
Here’s a crazy stat: since April 19th, the Cubs are 7-3 in every stretch of 10 games. So pick any date from May 1st back to April 19th (13 days to pick from), count back 10 straight games and the Cubs will have a 7-3 record.
That’s remarkable.
The next 10 games for the Cubs are all at home: 3 vs. Cardinals, 4 vs. Marlins and 3 more against the Brewers. Without getting ahead of myself, I think we can all agree that 7-3 over these 10 games would be a major accomplishment.
If we’re being honest though (we are, always) it’s hard to see them losing more than 0 games right now. They’re that hot.