This One Glaring Issue With The Celtics Makes No Sense But Also Explains A Whole Lot

The Celtics have a clutch problem. It sounds crazy I know, but I’ve spent the last few days looking into this after watching the Celtics almost blow another huge lead over the Heat on Monday. I fully understand that on the surface, it’s a little crazy that a team with Kyrie Irving, a player who is 6th in the NBA in clutch time scoring with 48/33% splits has a closing problem, but the closer you look at the team’s actual production in close games as of late, it’s pretty glaring that there’s an issue here.

Let’s start with the basics. In close games, ones that are decided by 3 points or less, the Celts stand at 5-6. By comparison to some of their competitors, PHI is 10-8 and TOR is 11-6. This matters for the Celtics because since we know they are allergic to actually holding onto a big deal, they find themselves in these fourth quarters where all of the sudden they are fighting for their lives and things just don’t seem right. I wanted to see if this was just a recent trend or something bigger, so I went back and looked at the last two months of basketball to see just how bad things have gotten. For starters, Kyrie, the best closer on this team and someone who has a pretty ridiculous clutch time usage rate at 48% (3rd in the league), has seen his clutch numbers tank over this time period. The Celts are 5-6 in those 11 clutch time games since 2/1, with Kyrie’s points dropping to 3.7 on 42/27% splits. Right off the bat if your best player is going to be used that much and is struggling like he is, that’s obviously going to impact your results in a close game. The game against MIA is a perfect example of what I’m talking about, where things just felt off with him.

But here’s the thing, this is NOT just a Kyrie problem, and that’s what makes it a little scary. It’s not like if he snaps out of his funk things suddenly get a whole lot better. The biggest problem in my opinion when things get close is that this team cannot get a stop to save their life, and the numbers back it up. Over the last two months their Drtg in clutch situations sits at 128.7, which is good for 29th in the league. Their overall net rating of -16.6 is good for 28th. So who is the biggest culprit, well…

This is where we see that Brad is going to have a really tough choice come the playoffs, where of course games get tighter and more competitive. Everyone wants more of Jaylen/Hayward and less of Terry/Mook once the playoffs roll around, and I look at these numbers and I say Brad has more than enough evidence to realize this is the best thing moving forward. While the defense of Hayward/Jaylen isn’t all that great, and Jaylen’s clutch time offense is a big time problem, it’s worth the risk in my opinion. If Brad continues to be stubborn with his rotation and trust guys like Morris in these late game clutch situations, he’s basically shooting himself in the foot and killing his teams chances before they even realize it.

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My concern though is what we’ve seen over the last few months defensively from guys like Horford/Baynes/Smart in these clutch situations. They are by far this team’s best defenders, yet they haven’t been able to stop a nosebleed when they truly need a stop. Same thing with Tatum, we all agree that we want him on the floor for his offense to help draw attention from Kyrie, but he is KILLING this team on the defensive end and why we’ve seen Brad pull him at times.

You combine the poor defense from the frontcourt with the fact that the Celtics are 30th in DREB% in the clutch, and really it’s all a recipe for disaster. It’s no surprise teams that are very good in clutch situations, the HOU/PHI/DEN of the world are all among the best clutch defensive teams in the league. They’re consistent on that end and why they have a combined 28-17 clutch record. I look at the Celtics and I see a team that gets into a close game, only has Kyrie touch the ball offensively who is settling for bad shots, then there’s Smart who has the next highest usage rate at 20% which isn’t ideal, and then on the other end after taking a bad shot this team is giving up layups. On the season the Celtics give up the 6th fewest opponent PITP, and over the last two months that number has ballooned to have them 12th. Teams are scoring inside with ease and that’s a problem once the playoffs roll around and teams actually try and don’t settle for jumpers and attack the basket late.

As Celtics fans we’re used to the fourth quarter being when this team is at their best. We’re used to seeing this team have a dynamic guard who can take over games late, and then as a team really strap in and suck the lifeblood out of their opponent. You look at their struggles post ASB, and a lot of that has to do with how bad this team has been when it really matters. To me, of all the things on their laundry list they need to fix before the playoffs start, how they play in the clutch on both ends is the most important and will ultimately decide just how far this team could do this Spring.