If You Think Gronk's Retirement Means the Patriots Dynasty is Over, You're an Idiot

It’s coming. You know it, and I know it. The same Doomsday Preppers who’ve been waiting for evidence that the end of the Patriots Dynasty is upon us since about 2005 like the Hale-Bopp Comet cult people are about to declare with one voice and singularity of purpose that Rob Gronkowski’s retirement is finally the End of Days for this franchise.

A quick Twitter search of “patriots dynasty over” will give you thousands of such hits, mainly from Twitter eggs and semi-literate nematodes with 30 followers and a Terrible Towel as an avatar. But the big names will be climbing on board the It’s Over Express making its next stop at Now the Patriots Suck station. The Washington Post has a headline behind their paywall titled “Rob Gronkowski’s Exit Could Hasten the End of the Patriots Dynasty.” And I can promise you with 100 percent certainty it’s just the first wet, shitty handful of dirt that’s going to start the mudslide of these things to follow.

So just to get out ahead of the narrative here, let me assure you: If you think losing Gronk is the One Ring getting tossed into the lava that’s going to make the Gillette lighthouse crumble like Barad-Dur

… you’re living in a dream world. Seriously, you are delusional if you think Gronk – a great as he’s been – is the loss they cannot withstand. As Charles de Gaulle said, “Cemeteries are filled with indispensable men.”

First, a little about Gronk and how important he’s been. Because I don’t want what I’m about to say to come off like I’m minimizing his impact. For starters, let’s look at this list of accomplishments, made into handy graphic form by SI:

And this brain-breaking stat about his effect on Tom Brady’s Passer Rating, from Pro Football Focus:

Furthermore, I’ll acknowledge that they have not been the same team without him. He’s missed 23 regular season games since his injuries started to pile up in 2012. And the records with him and without him look like this:

With Gronk: 115 games. 91 wins, 24 losses, .695
Without Gronk: 23 games, 16 wins, 7 losses, .791

OK. So are we good? Have we acknowledged how great he’s been and how much of a positive impact he’s had? Good. Now let’s move on.

That winning percentage without him, while almost .100 points lower, would work out to 11.2 wins over a 16-game season. And bear in mind, that’s with whomever his backup was at the time playing in his place. Sure, the occasional Martellus Bennett or whatshisname they drafted from Florida. But far more often it was some non-factor in the passing game like Scott Chandler, Michael Hoomanawanui, or Dwayne Allen. Give them a top prospect (or two) out of a draft class that is a motherlode of tight end talent, give him (them) time to develop and it’s lunacy to think they’ll suddenly turn into the 2018 Cardinals without him.

More to the point, ask yourself when was the last time the Pats were able to win in the playoffs without Gronk? I guess you’d have to go back all the way to the long-forgotten days of yore: 2016. After one of the worst offensive peformances of the Bradichick Epoch in the Divisional Round game vs. Houston (a game the Patriots still covered at -16), Brady put these games together:

AFCCG vs. Pittsburgh: 32 for 42, 384 Yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 127.5 Passer Rating
Super Bowl LI vs. Atlanta: 43 for 62, 466 Yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 95.2 Passer Rating, 1 Comeback from Down 25 Points

And since then, they’ve won yet another Super Bowl with what was essentially 50-75 percent of the Gronk we knew. For all his moments of brilliance (e.g. winning the championship with a catch for the ages he’ll always be remembered for), his resilience and toughness as he nutted up through a Kellogg’s Variety Pack of injuries that would’ve had a lesser man living in the blue tent, he was primarily a blocking tight end this year. Posting some of his lowest numbers since his rookie year in terms of Catches per Game, Receiving Yards per Game and Catch Percentage. In spite of that – and very much thanks to him – they won another ring. So essentially they won their last two Super Bowls with somewhere between half a Gronk and one Gronk, total.

He’ll be missed. Hell, he is already. But if you think him walking out the door a hero means the days of worrying about the Patriots are over for the other 31 teams, you’re out of your goddamned mind.

#StillHere