College Hoops Conference Championship Gambling Guide: March 17 (Ivy, SEC, A-10, AAC, Big 10, Sun Belt)
It’s conference tournament time. So like I’ve done the last few years I will be making picks for every conference title game. I’ll put these in separate blogs opposed to any preview or full on blog just so it’s easier to find. After going 27-20-1 in the regular season on the blog, let’s have a week.
Reags Recommendations (Conference Championship Record: 15-11-1)
Yale -4.5
Tennessee -4.5
Houston -4.5
Michigan +1
St. Bonaventure +1
Georgia State -3.5
Ivy League
No. 2 Yale vs No. 1 Harvard (at Yale) – Noon, E*PN2
Yale -4.5/144
Previous Matchups: Harvard 65-49 (at Yale), Harvard 88-86 (at Harvard)
The most important thing to know here is the fact that Yale is playing at home. The Ivy decided to move the tournament from The Palestra to Yale this year which gives them a huge advantage. Harvard has had a weird year. Seth Towns hasn’t been able to play. Bryce Aiken missed time but is back and dropped 19 in the semifinals. Amaker has this program absolutely rolling. ,I know they even won both games at home. However, Yale at home with that offense is too tough to not take here. The positive for Yale is its weaknesses aren’t exactly highlighted by Harvard.
Pick: Yale -4.5
A-10 Championship
No. 4 St. Bonaventure vs No. 6 St. Louis – Noon, CBS
St. Bonaventure -1/120.5
Previous Matchups: St. Bonaventure 65-57 (at St. Bonaventure)
The one tournament that’s giving us a big thief. The A-10 was a 1 bid league until VCU lost to Rhode Island in the quarterfinals – highlighted by Marcus Evans leaving the game with an injury. Now, before the season it wouldn’t necessarily be a surprise that St. Louis is here. This team is absolutely loaded with talent. They have guys like Javon Bess, Jordan Goodwin and Tremaine Isabell. As for St. Bonaventure? It’s ridiculous that Mark Schmidt has them back here after everything that they lost from last year. The key is going to be keeping St. Louis off the offensive glass – they are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. Neither team is exactly good on the offensive side of the ball and make you work defensively.
Pick: St. Louis +1
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SEC Championship
No. 5 Auburn vs No. 3 Tennessee (Nashville) – 1pm, E*PN
Tennessee -4.5/146
Previous Matchups: Auburn 84-80 (at Auburn)
No real crazy story here. Tennessee and Auburn were predicted to be two of the top-3 teams in the SEC before the season started. Auburn stumbled a bit during the regular season, but the bracket also broke perfectly for them. Not to mention Jared Harper is absolutely playing his ass off. One thing to keep an eye on here is how Okeke’s ankle looks after rolling it a bit earlier in the week. Tennessee, well, we know the story. They used that press, caused Kentucky to panic and then hit some massive threes late in the game to win. That felt like the title game, especially with a No. 1 seed potentially on the line between the two. The game earlier in the year between the two was awesome. Auburn uses its ability to speed up the game and spread Tennessee out to kill them from three. That’s a concern today along with a bit of a letdown. However, Tennessee always had the goal of winning the SEC Tournament and I can see them coming out just absolutely pissed off and motivated.
Pick: Tennessee -4.5
Sun Belt Championship
No. 2 Texas Arlington vs No. 1 Georgia State (New Orleans) – 2pm, E*PN2
Georgia State -3.5/138.5
Previous Matchups: Georgia State 77-71 (at GSU), Georgia State 63-58 (at UT Arlington)
Man, how is UT-Arlington here? They lost pretty much every piece from last year’s team including its head coach. They were supposed to take a step back this year after the Kevin Hervey led team. Chris Ogden came in after spending time on Chris Beard’s bench and we’re seeing a similar coaching style. He’s brought in JuCos and transfers and just has them playing their ass off. Then Georgia State still has Ron Hunter as head coach. No word if he’ll be on his stool like when he broke his foot. They do have D’Marcus Simonds though, who is the best player in the league. I’ll trust that.
Pick: Georgia State -3.5
AAC Championship
No. 2 Cincinnati vs. No. 1 Houston (at Memphis) – 3:15pm, E*PN
Houston -4.5/128.5
Previous Matchups: Houston 65-58 (at Houston), Houston 85-69 (at UC)
This is potentially a huge game for Houston. We don’t know if the committee locked them into a No. 3 seed yet but if they did not a win doesnt help in just locking that up. Would make sure to drop them to a No. 4 seed for whatever reason. We also saw this matchup a week ago which caused Mick Cronin to say he was going to have a tryout to send players here. Houston just absolutely punked Cincinnati. I like the Coogs here. Cincinnati overachieved a bit this year and Houston is a damn good team. They have a plethora of guards that can just keep beating Cincinnati off the dribble and then attack the offensive glass.
Pick: Houston -4.5
Big 10 Championship
No. 3 Michigan vs No. 1 Michigan State – 3:30pm, CBS
Michigan State -1/130
Previous Matchups: Michigan State 77-70 (at Michigan), Michigan State 75-63 (at MSU)
The state of Michigan in March, man. John Beilein trying to win his 3rd consecutive Big 10 Tournament. The key is going to be Michigan’s offense. We saw Michigan State absolutely take that away in 3 halves so far this season. Michigan State has been going under every screen forcing Michigan’s guards to hit shots and then attack in a 1v1 set. That’s not who Michigan is. They are at their best in cuts and passing. If you force them to go 1v1 it takes them out of their comfort zone. Keep an eye on Cassius Winston’s ankle too. During the game yesterday he was hobbling a bit and looked like it was bothering him. Yes, Foster Loyer stepped up and hit some shots, but he also wasn’t going against Zavier Simpson.
Pick: Michigan +1