The Biggest Disappointments Of The NBA's First Half
Now that we’re halfway through the season it’s time to look at the collective NBA landscape and see how everyone is doing. Yesterday I put out my grades for all 30 teams, and over the next few days I’m going to keep this going by looking at the biggest surprises and biggest disappointments from the first half. I thought of including teams, but I felt like the grades blog already did that so these blogs will only focus on players. We’re going to start today with the biggest disappointments through this point of the season, and just so we’re clear this doesn’t mean these players stink or can’t get better as the season goes along, just that given where we all thought they would be this season, they haven’t really lived up to the expectations. I whittled my list down to 10 players so chances are I missed someone but that’s the beauty of the internet, you’ll be able to talk about anyone I may have missed in the comments. With that said, let’s get started.
Brandon Ingram
2018-19 Stats: 16.5 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.5 assists on 46/29% shooting
2018-19 Advanced Stats: 98 Ortg / 110 Drtg
I don’t want to start this blog off by triggering Lakers fans (well maybe I do a little bit), but the truth is Brandon Ingram has not taken that Year 3 leap that I’m sure Lakers fans wanted. As you can see his traditional averages aren’t bad, but is when you look closer that you really see the issue with him. His Ortg/Drtg’s are just flat out bad, and for someone who Magic said he expected to be a 20 point scorer, it hasn’t been there. His shooting overall is down after what was sort of a breakout Year 2, with his TS% down to 51% all while his usage rate is pretty much the same.
In terms of real plus-minus with SFs Ingram ranks 68th, and considering he’s probably going to be the key piece in any AD package, I’m sure Magic wishes he were playing better.
Jaylen Brown
2018-19 Stats: 12.0 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.5 assists on 44/29% shooting
2018-19 Advanced Stats: 99 Ortg / 107 Drtg
Everything I just said about Brandon Ingram you can multiply by a billion when it comes to Jaylen. After a great playoff run where he was the second leading scorer with 18 a game on 46/39% splits, Celtics fans everywhere were expecting a big time Year 3 jump. The results so far? A complete disaster all things considered. Perhaps nobody is underachieving through the first half of the year like Jaylen has, and while he’s been better over his last 17 games, his start was so horrifically bad it still has Celtics fans demanding he be traded. The advanced numbers are not kind to him either, as the Celtics net rating jumps from +1.2 when he’s on the floor, to +10.4 when he’s off. Now part of this is the fact that he now plays with the second unit, but that’s not really an excuse.
He’s 14th among SG’s in Defensive Real Plus-Minus, and 51st if you factor in both offensive and defensive. If you look at his approach, he’s attempting fewer threes at just a .346 3Pr which is lower than his .381 last year, all while having the same exact usage rate. His problem has been consistency and defense, two things that are pretty important to Brad Stevens. Even if he’s started to turn a corner as of late, his first half has still been a massive disappointment given what we expected after his great Year 2.
Donovan Mitchell
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2018-19 Stats: 20.4 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.4 assists on 40/30% shooting
2018-19 Advanced Stats: 97 Ortg / 107 Drtg
I think what made Donovan Mitchell’s rookie season so awesome was the fact that he stepped right in and looked like a 10 year vet. His efficiency wasn’t the best at 43/34%, but everything we saw told us that he would figure that out. Enter Year 2, and not only are the Jazz taking a step back, but so has Mitchell’s shooting. His TS% is down to just .503 which isn’t all that great, while no one can really be mad at back to back 20 point seasons, I do think if you asked Jazz fans their take on Mitchell they would agree that both his offense and defense has regressed a little in his second year.
There are a couple areas where Mitchell’s offensive struggles show most, and that’s close to the basket. From 0-3 ft he’s shooting just 60% down from 63% last year, and from 3-10 ft he’s at 32% down from 38% the year before. You add those struggles with his drop in three point shooting, and it’s been tough. He’s been great from 10-16ft and in the long-two area, but given he likes to either attack or hit threes, you could say these are issues.
Nicholas Batum
2018-19 Stats: 8.9 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists on 45/39% shooting
2018-19 Advanced Stats: 111 Ortg / 112 Drtg
I don’t want to pick on Batum because I’m pretty sure he’s washed, but you look at his contract and the fact that the Hornets were relying on him to be a legit secondary scoring option next to Kemba, well that hasn’t really happened. Their offensive rating is 4 points better without him on the floor, and things have gotten to the point where the Hornets are actively trying to get out of his contract. I don’t think you do that if you’re happy with his performance so far this year. The reality is this is the second lowest scoring season of his career, he’s barely getting to the line, certainly must less frequent than last season, and for someone who is not driving like he used to and who doesn’t really have a game outside of layups and threes, that’s no surprise.
I wouldn’t say Batum’s time in CHA is overall a disaster, but they certainly did not get the shooter they thought they were getting from POR. He’s a career 41/34% shooter as a Hornet, which is down from 44/36% as a Blazer.
Tyreke Evans
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2018-19 Stats: 10.1 points, 2.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists on 37/34% shooting
2018-19 Advanced Stats: 92 Ortg / 105 Drtg
Frankly, I think this regression is what everyone was afraid for last season when Tyreke Evans was tearing it up for MEM in a contract year. I’ll give him some benefit of the doubt in terms of this being a new team and new system, but there’s no way Pacers fans can sit there and tell me that this is what they expected when they brought Evans in this summer. He’s down across nearly every single category compared to last season with only a slightly lower usage rate at 26.6%. His TS% is the lowest of his career at 47.6% and his 10.3 point average is the second lowest of his career.
The Pacers have a better net rating with him off the floor, and I suppose it’s a good thing they only are committed to him after this year, because if he plays like this over the course of the second half, they have better options to go with moving forward.
Markelle Fultz
2018-19 Stats: 8.2 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.1 assists on 41/28% shooting, 19 GP
2018-19 Advanced Stats: 99 Ortg / 110 Drtg
Yeah, I think this one goes without saying. We all know why, let’s just move on.
Josh Jackson
2018-19 Stats: 9.3 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists on 40/31% shooting
2018-19 Advanced Stats: 86 Ortg / 112 Drtg
Yikes. Josh Jackson was already an extremely raw offensive player and complete defensive liability in his rookie season. He’s now seen himself fall out of the rotation at times in Year 2, and has gotten even worse offensively. That 86 Ortg is ridiculous as his his 47% TS%. There has simply been no forward progress in his Year 2 season compared to others who were drafted around him, and that’s a tough spot to be in for a player taken so high in the draft.
I know he plays on a bad team, but there’s no reason why he couldn’t be one of those good stats on a bad team guys until the Suns start to come around. In reality it’s been the exact opposite, he’s been a bad stats on a bad team guy which when you add to their busted pick of Dragan Bender, doesn’t look so great and is why maybe this team fired their GM to start the year.
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Russell Westbrook
2018-19 Stats: 21.2 points, 10.8 rebounds, 10.3 assists on 42/23% shooting
2018-19 Advanced Stats: 99 Ortg / 98 Drtg
How the hell can a guy averaging a triple double on a really good team be a disappointment? I get it, it seems weird, but the disappointment comes in the form of Westbrook’s shooting struggles through the first half. He’s matched the lowest Ortg of his career this season, has taken a step back both from the field and from three despite taking fewer shots, and his FT% has plummeted from 74% last year to 62.7% this year. I think you can be happy with his overall performance through the first half but be disappointed with how he’s shooting the ball.
Westbrook has never had a TS% as low as his 47.8% this year, and given how heavily he is used within the OKC offense, that’s significant.
Terry Rozier
2018-19 Stats: 8.8 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2.8 assists on 38/35% shooting
2018-19 Advanced Stats: 107 Ortg / 106 Drtg
Another Celtic who had an unreal postseason run, is poised to enter RFA this summer so the expectations were pretty big that Terry was rounding into being a starting level point guard in the NBA. Well, much like Jaylen, things have been a complete disaster for Terry this year. His defense has regressed, his shooting has not gotten better, in fact it’s down across the board there as well, and his TS% is down to 49%. The big thing for him has been his inability to be a consistent positive player while coming off the bench, but then being awesome once he starts. It seems clear he doesn’t love his role and is letting that impact his play, which is pretty bad.
He’s always been an inefficient shooter, so for me that doesn’t bother me all that much. My beef is with him on the defensive end and how he’s spent the majority of the first half getting cooked by average at best backup guards. I think many Celtics fans thought we were entering this year with Playoff Terry, but that has most definitely not been the case.
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Carmelo Anthony
2018-19 Stats: 13.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, 0.5 assists on 40/32% shooting
2018-19 Advanced Stats: 104 Ortg / 114 Drtg
Pretty self explanatory right? Melo was brought in to be an additional scoring option and replace Trevor Ariza in this HOU offense. That lasted about 10 days before they decided you know what, we’re better off without you. His shooting did not come around like many Rockets fans hoped it would, remember all he had to do was stand in the corner and hit open shots! His defense was as bad as we all thought it was, and if anything it was just sad to watch a HOF talent probably see his career end like this.
We’re now halfway through the year and nobody has picked him up, so yeah I think it’s OK to say that the Melo experiment in Houston was a big disappointment.
So those are my 10. There is still hope for most on this list to turn things around and have a great second half, but so far things have not been ideal for them or their current teams. I’m curious, is there anyone that maybe plays for your team that I left off? Let me know. We’re doing the biggest surprises tomorrow, and it’ll be nice to switch things up and be positive.