Vegas' MLB 2019 Win Totals Are In - Let's Get Rich
So with about 30 days, give or take, until pitchers and catchers report, Vegas’ MLB win totals are starting to trickle in. One of my favorite pastimes is to haphazardly look at the Chicago White Sox win total and immediately say “over”. Last year it was set at 68 – I put a couple of units on it while I was living in Arizona through an accomplice that had a guy make bets for him in Vegas. I thought they’d for sure surpass their previous win total of 67. Giolito, Moncada, Lopez would all be solid or better and they’d win 70-75 games or so.
They went on to win 62 games and had the 3rd worst record in baseball. Fuck. Whatever though. Youth gonna youth.
Obviously we’re starting with the White Sox at 74.5 wins:
Anyways – Vegas sees them as a 12.5 win improvement from one season ago. That’s a CRAZY high jump, even though they’ve only added a solid at best Yonder Alonzo, a 4th OF Jon Jay, an innings eater in Ivan Nova and a few (albeit good) backend relievers. Are those guys worth 12-13 wins alone? No shot. Maybe Vegas is prepping for a bigger signing with subsequent complementary additions after said big signing?
No idea. As it stands I’d say this is a 75 win team at best. Moncada will improve – mark my words. He’s going to be a stud this year. I don’t give a shit about his K-rate – he was the unluckiest hitter in terms of bad umpiring last year:
What this graph shows is that Moncada struck out looking by far the most amount of times in baseball on pitches outside the zone. Screw job by MLB umpiring, but someone has to be the leader. He also had one of the best 0-swing rates at 23.3% – good for 18th best in baseball. Combine a certain regression to the mean with the amount of called third strikes on pitches outside the zone for Moncada and he will see a marked improvement in offensive output. Assuming the pitching staff takes a step forward, 74-75 wins is something that is within reach.
Yes, I’ve talked myself into betting the over. Hammer it now because I truly feel like Machado is coming…
The Rest of the League
Brewers 83.5 wins:
At a glance there is one number I would POUND when looking at it at a glance – the Milwaukee Brewers
83.5 wins? Let’s check into Barstool Chicago’s resident Milwaukee Brewers hater Carl
Is Yellich going to regress? He’s one of the very best players in baseball but how many people have won back to back MVPs? The Reds improved from “dumpster fire” to “mediocre-ish” and the Cardinals added Goldschmidt. Then the Cubs will be the Cubs. But still… 83.5 wins? Pound that over. 87-88 wins, though a significant drop from 2018, is still more than doable in every way, especially if they add someone like a Dallas Keuchel or trade for Bumgarner.
Other totals of note:
Orioles 59:
Holy shit that number cannot be serious can it? Not sure I’ve ever seen a preseason win total in the 50s before. I mean I know they’re an absolute dumpster fire in every way, as their 25 man is trash, their farm system is more or less barren when compared to other tanking teams and they don’t invest in LatAm scouting. So yes, I just talked myself into another 55ish win season, at best. They have no help on the way really, outside of Yusniel Diaz and Ryan Mountcastle, who are both likely 2020 guys anyways. This team is going to be HORRENDOUS. They might not even surpass their 47 win mark of 2018 since Manny won’t be there for half the season.
PS – I wonder if there will be any takers for this contract?
Boras gonna Boras!
Red Sox 95.5, Yankees 96.5
Baseball is better when the Yankees and Red Sox both hate each other’s fucking guts. A solid decade or so went by when the fanbases only had a mild disdain for each other, but the hate has ramped up in the last year or two. This season, expect more hatred then ever before. Red Sox, fresh off a dominant season and World Series victory, should be making a bee line for 100 wins again. The Yankees, who rebuilt to a title contender on the fly in just a season or so, will do the same. It’d be dumb to bet a team to win 100 games, but both of these teams could. The Orioles will be the obvious punching bag of the division, but the Rays will be a pest for both teams. My bet?
Under for both. 93-95 wins for each, Red Sox eek out the division title.
Astros 97.5:
The Astros are the scummiest, sleaziest, most dishonest team in baseball. I have stories for days that I’ve been told about them videotaping catchers signs, relaying signs to hitters, etc. They do anything and everything to gain an edge. Baseball is a cheater’s game, and the Astros have mastered it. That, and they just signed one of the best “professional” hitters in baseball in Michael Brantley and have one of the better starting staffs in baseball. The Mariners will be a dumpster fire, the Angels their typical 85 win team, and the Rangers dog shit, so another 100 win season is for sure in the mix. As I just said don’t bet a team to win 100 games, I’m betting the Astros to win 100 games. Don’t @ me.
Cubs 89:
Are the Cubs on the downswing of their “dynasty”? Maybe. If Darvish doesn’t show up this year, the rotation is scary thin. Q, Lester, Hamels and Hendricks is a good core to a rotation, and Darvish/Chatwood both have Cy Young shit. But Darvish/Chatwood are mental midgets and if any of the other arms go down with injury, the Cubs don’t have much on deck to fill their void. Bryant will have a rebound year and be back to his MVP form, but I do expect some regression from Javy. The lineup will be good to really good as well. 89-90 wins sounds about right to me. The division is extremely deep – not a truly “bad” team in it. My bet?
Under. 85 wins. Lester is going to continue on his downward trend, as will Hamels, and Darvish will succumb to the pressure of playing in front of 40K people who don’t even know his name every 5th day and just retire to Japan. Theo’s league though amirite?
Baseball cannot get here soon enough. It’s going to be a super fun year – now give me Manny!!!