Well We Definitely Know Who the MLB Is Cheering For in the Championship Series
When Clayton Kershaw delivers his first pitch at 8:09 eastern time tonight in Milwaukee, Major League Baseball’s Championship Series’ will officially be underway. While both series between the Dodgers/Brewers and Astros/Red Sox seem to be very evenly matched, there is no question who MLB commissioner Rob Manfred and those back at headquarters in NYC will be cheering for. In a sport that is being targeted for its loss of popularity among the new generations, it has a golden opportunity here to put up huge numbers with two of the league’s most popular teams in position to play on the biggest stage. Should the Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox both win their respective series, Major League Baseball has the potential to have its most viewed World Series in recent memory. If they both lose, well, there’s a good chance the ratings will be up there with the worst of all-time.
In terms of valuations of each franchise, the glaring discrepancy comes from the National League. While the Dodgers sit at #2 in all of baseball, valued at $3 billion by Forbes, the Brewers reside all the way down at #23, worth a mere $1.03 billion. Wow, chump change.
In the American League, the gap is seemingly closer, but definitely not close. The Red Sox round out the top 5 with a $2.8 billion valuation, and Houston comes in at #11, valued at $1.65 billion.
Not only is there a huge gap in the valuations of the teams, in turn meaning a presumed higher popularity, there is also a major difference in the market size of the 4 teams remaining. In 2018 estimates from Nielsen, Los Angeles is the #2 sports market in all of America, trailing only New York. The Dodgers television market is approximately 5.277 million, and their counterpart in the NCLS, Milwaukee, checks in on the list all the way down at #36, with 848K in their market. Houston and Boston are very comparable in market size, but one that understands the history of each city and team knows that Boston will pull much higher ratings than Houston.
History also tells us that the MLB is either set up for great success or great failure in this year’s Fall Classic. The highest rated World Series of all time included the Boston Red Sox (1986). The fifth rated World Series of all time included the Dodgers (1988). While the numbers that those series put up are long gone, as they averaged nearly double that of even the highest rated game in 25 years, the Cubs/Indians Game 7 in 2016, a Brewers/Astros series may compete for worst of all time. The current lowest viewed series ever came in 2012, when the Giants swept the Tigers. Numbers 2-5 all have happened in the last 10 years as well, meaning that a small market series combined with the way baseball is trending could be record lows.
The good news here is that when the MLB is in need of a desperate fix, they oftentimes come up very “lucky”. Disagree? Let’s talk Bryce Harper at the Home Run Derby this year. I saw it live, with my own two eyes. With Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton, and other stars sitting the contest out, that lineup was far from appealing.
Max Muncy? Rhys Hoskins? Even the #1 seed, Jesus Aguilar, was barely a known name amongst common fans outside of Milwaukee. Major League Baseball needed a spark to make the event exciting, and boy did it get one. Bryce Harpers rally to 19 home runs in the final round, including a furious final minute to reach bonus time, had the sports world in awe that July night. Who cares if he repeatedly broke the wait til the ball lands rules while doing so? The MLB needed it.
And let’s not forget about Derek Jeter’s final at-bat. I’m not going to breakdown the ins-and-outs of the tomfoolery that that surrounds the entire situation, but if you think that Jeter randomly got an 86 mph fastball down the middle part of the plate in the bottom of the 9th with the winning run on 2nd, then I have a Nigerian prince that needs your help holding his money in your bank account.
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It’s a shame that while the MLB may want the Dodgers and the Red Sox to win, the best match-up may be the complete opposite. Yes, the Red Sox won 108 games, but the defending champion 103 win Astros are favored in Vegas. Houston literally has no weakness. They can pitch, hit, field, manage, hit, and definitely pitch. On the other side, the Brewers are the hottest team in baseball, and Christian Yelich is the hottest player in the game. But if you think that will impact the ratings then you are either from Milwaukee or are a die-hard baseball fan. Die hard baseball fans are going to watch regardless. The common fan will watch the Dodgers and Red Sox. And he would rather gamble on MACtion on Tuesday night than watch the Brewers.