Here's What The Top Trainers In Mixed Martial Arts Who Are STILL Doubting Conor McGregor Are Saying About Saturday
Four days ago, Brett Okamoto – who is probably my favorite journalist in the sport – published his ‘Scouting Report’ column on Conor McGregor’s title defense against challenger Khabib Nurmagomedov. Read that HERE. This is a regular feature Okamoto does for big fights, where he’ll sit down with about a dozen of the top mixed martial arts trainers in the world and ask their predictions on said fights. When opening this UFC 229 edition of the ‘Scouting Report’, I definitely expected to see some haters and losers of the world telling ya that McGregor can’t wrestle so he’ll get smothered and lose, when in-reality they have no idea how the fight will play out but McGregor once knocked a member of their team silly, splattering their blood all over the canvas right in front of their trainers eyes, and they’re still salty about that.
But we’re not here to talk about McGregor wiping out an entire division, and pissing everyone in the mixed martial arts industry off along the way. We’re here to do quite the opposite, actually, because as I read through the Scouting Report, I was befuddled. Befuddled at either the transparency in some of these trainers’ analysis of the fight, befuddled at how few were willing to even suggest McGregor could win, and befuddled that nobody has learned their lesson yet.
So now, we’re going to look at what some of McGregor’s biggest doubters are saying about his upcoming fight with Khabib Nurmagomedov, and I’ll jump in along the way to break down their breakdowns. All transcriptions courtesy of Brett Okamoto/ESPN. Once more, read his full ‘Scouting Report’ HERE.
Ray Longo – LAW MMA
When Al [Iaquinta] fought Khabib [UFC 223, April 7], Al survived on the floor but was gassed from wrestling with him. We didn’t realize the energy it would sap from Al, being down there. Now, Al was training for a three-round fight against a striker and he filled in on short notice, so that probably had something to do with it.
McGregor’s gas tank has been a little shaky, even when he’s doing well. I’m assuming Khabib is going to walk through a couple of punches and get him to the floor. And that’s the interesting part: Can Conor survive down there, and will he still have energy left after? I think Khabib is so good at what he does, you can’t prepare for it. If you’re an accomplished striker and you bring in these Olympic wrestlers to work with, you could make it worse. You may think you can wrestle with the guy when you can’t.
I do think if Al hadn’t fought him, this would be a real easy fight for Khabib. I do. I believe Al gave people hope, going five rounds with the guy on last-minute notice. [Khabib] almost had the Mike Tyson thing going — everybody was losing the fight with him before it started. But Al made him look human, and I think that gives other guys hope.
I think Khabib gets it down early, wears him out and gets him out of there with a submission in the second or third round.
Alright Ray Longo. You’re talking about being surprised when Al Iaquinta gassed against Khabib (in Khabib’s last fight, where he “won” the UFC Lightweight Championship), but then note the big missing detail I was waiting on right afterwards, that Iaquinta was a one day’s notice fill-in for Max Holloway who was a fill-in for Tony Ferguson, and he was training for a completely different opponent, and training for three rounds. He took Khabib five. Of course he was tired, man.
Next, you say, “I’m assuming Khabib is going to walk through a couple of punches and get him to the floor.” and immediately I’ve discredited your breakdown because you decided to make a wild assumption: that Khabib will just walk through McGregor’s punches and drag him down to the canvas. Don’t assume, Ray. It makes an ass out of u and me. Who’s next?
Mark Henry – New Jersey Striking Coach
Khabib has the ability to control where the fight goes. If he wants to take him down, I don’t think Conor or anyone else in the UFC has the ability to stop him. You have to try to keep it in the center of the Octagon, because once Khabib sees you against the fence, he’s going to put you up against it and grind you down. After Conor throws a punch, [he should] cut off on an angle. A lot of in-and-out. Feints. Just try to keep Khabib off-balance.
The sound of the bell is when it’s most dangerous for Khabib. When Eddie Alvarez fought Conor [November 2016], our game plan was to wrestle. His wrestling looked great, his cardio was great. I remember Matt Serra was in the locker room warming up his fighter that night, and he saw how fast Eddie’s shot was. After the fight, he said, “Man, I watched him warmup and I thought he was going to do amazing.” But he got hit early, and it clouded his head. First 30 seconds, that’s where anything could go.
I’m friendly with Khabib, and I hope it’s a smashfest. You throw in what Conor has said about his brother and his father. I hope Khabib smashes him, and I think he’ll do it in the first round.
Uhhhh hey Mark Henry. Ever heard of being unbiased bro? Should try it some time. That’s what us guys “in the biz” do as to not make enemies unnecessarily. Your breakdown is hereby disqualified due to bias and unprofessionalism.
Oh and P.S. this is what McGregor did to your star fighter. Your champion. Your big bad scary wrestler who would surely drag McGregor to the ground and “maul” him. How’d that work out for ya?
Boom roasted. Next.
Rener Gracie – Gracie Jiu-Jitsu Academy
Khabib’s ground control is so good, he can immobilize almost on autopilot. And as a result, his conscious effort is on the damage he inflicts from positions of control. When he takes someone down, they’re not getting back up. They’re going to be punished, and that’s pretty much a wrap — for that round.
The advantage in Conor’s situation is that every round starts standing up. Everyone talks about, “If Khabib takes him down, the fight is over.” Yes and no. The round might be over, but the fight is not over. There isn’t a clear path to finishing for Khabib. The ground-and-pound is great, but against someone with decent jiu-jitsu and ground defense, we’ve seen you can survive long enough to ride out the round.
Specifically and historically, the most submittable people on the ground are the people who are least accepting of the ground. When you get taken down, if your entire life is based on getting back to your feet, your opponent knows that. And in your desperate attempt to get back to your feet, you fall into behavioral patterns that are unavoidable, not the least of which is turning to your knees to build the house and stand back up. It’s hard to get back to your feet from your back, and the process of going to your knees puts you at risk to put your back to the opponent. And a high-level grappler will take advantage of that.
It all boils down to what Conor believes is his priority once he gets taken down. If it’s “I have to get back to my feet,” he’ll get submitted. But if it’s “No problem, we have rounds to play,” then he has a great chance. It will look bad from an optics and judging perspective, but having one or two rounds means nothing if you come out and close deals later. Based on the history of all their fights, I have to go with the grappler, Khabib, because it’s close to my heart.
I like Rener and Rener has to do what he has to do to keep the Gracie name alive, so it’s more than understandable that he has to root for the grappler in this fight. Legitimately, I think that’s fair. I also think his point about strikers that are afraid to grapple falling into behavioral patterns that wind up getting them submitted while trying to escape was interesting, and worth noting as well. At least he acknowledges what most aren’t: IF Khabib survives the first (which he will not), guess where the second starts? On the feet. And if Khabib survives that one (which he surely will not), guess where the third begins? You see what I’m getting at here. Next.
Danny Castillo – Team Alpha Male
Without a doubt, Khabib has the best top game in the UFC. His ability to hold and throw punches at the same time is something special. He triangles both of your legs, and if he’s above the knee, Conor’s chances of getting up are slim to none.
But Conor released that little hype tape online, and I thought, “F—, he looks incredible.” Without a doubt, I thought Khabib was going to win, but it got me thinking, one of Conor’s best attributes is his ability to fight long. When he fought Chad [Mendes, July 2015], he dropped him with a long cross. When he fought a tall, long guy like Nate Diaz, he only started losing in tight, in the clinch. That’s where Khabib will want to be.
If I had to pick a winner, I would go with Khabib by TKO in the third round. But I’ve seen photos of Conor on the bicycle. Usually that’s building heart rate and gas tank. He’s got a s—load of money; without a doubt, he’s got the best strength and conditioning coaches and doctors. If it gets past the fourth and fifth rounds and Conor is finding an ability to get up, he could have a chance to end the fight with a long cross.
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha! This is so perfectly Team Alpha Male, a prediction that just makes everybody go…
Danny Castillo literally spends the entire breakdown explaining how amazing a fighter Conor McGregor is, and how he thought Khabib was going to win UNTIL McGregor released the following video from his camp…
…and then all of the memories of the Chad Mendes fight and the intricacies of what Conor did so well (ex: fighting long) flooded his memory. He mentions that he’s seen a photo of McGregor on a bike, and believes he’s been working hard to improve his cardio. Sounds like he’s got his mind made up for sure…
Castillo then predicts Khabib to win the fight…in the third round…via TKO.
Alright dude. Next, I guess!
Henri Hooft – HKickboxing striking
Conor has been out for awhile. I don’t know if he’s the same Conor that he was when he left the sport. I don’t think it’s easy to go away for awhile, come back and fight someone who has been fighting often.
If you’re not in the right mindset when you fight Conor, it’s a problem. With that kind of power, you cannot make even the slightest mistake. Khabib is the same as everybody — he has emotions, but people from his part of the world are good at hiding emotions. Some of these other guys get so emotional, and against a sharpshooter, you’re going to be on your back.
Against a wrestler, I tell my guys to use their hands first, before they throw any kicks. Conor’s stance is very wide, and he does that little step, step back, counterpunch. I like that a lot about him. If Conor can get in Khabib’s mind and make him think he can stand with him, that’s a good thing. A good counterstriker sets you up. Boxers will throw the jab for six rounds, and in the seventh round, they throw a 1-2, and you’re on your ass. It’s simple stuff, but it’s difficult to do. It’s the very small steps. The guy thinks you’re moving forward, but the moment he does, you step back and let that guy overcommit. If you give Khabib the feeling he can touch you with a punch, it’s your game.
You need to be so good and so specialized in what you do, it really doesn’t matter who you fight. Khabib knows how to fight. Conor knows how to fight. They need to train their own style so well that on that one night, with everybody watching, it all comes together. Feel good in your style, instead of thinking about what the other guy is going to do. No. If I fight, I know what the other guy is going to do, because I’m going to make him do it.
At the end of the day, if I have to pick somebody, Khabib has been more active. It’s difficult once you’ve made it big and you’ve made a lot of money, although Conor seems to enjoy this. It’s difficult to pick, but I have to give Khabib the edge: TKO, Round 4.
Interesting breakdown/read from Mr. Henri Hooft, but unfortunately this analysis features just one crucial mistake. He selects Khabib to win at UFC 229, largely due to the fact that Khabib has been a more active fighter in recent years. He didn’t specify HOW MANY recent years are in his sample size for this collected data however, so I just assumed he was talking about…I don’t know, five years, and I found out something pretty intriguing!
Since 2013, Khabib Nurmagomedov has had eight professional mixed martial arts bouts…
Since 2013, Conor McGregor has had ten professional mixed martial arts bout as well as a professional boxing bout where he took the greatest boxer of his generation to the tenth round of a war that was coincidentally his professional debut in the squared circle but that’s no big deal…
Due to the factual inaccuracies in that breakdown which I have clearly just proved to be incorrect, we’re gonna have to throw it out the window. I think we got one more?
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Mike Brown – American Top Team
There are a lot of questions to be asked with Conor. How good is his takedown defense? How much has it improved? The only time we really saw him fight an aggressive wrestler was Mendes, in a short-notice fight … and he got taken down a handful of times. I think we can speculate on whether he’s gotten better in that area, but the only people who really know are in his camp.
I favor Khabib, but I’ve been wrong a lot with Conor. He surprised me in the Mendes fight. He surprised me in the Jose Aldo fight [December 2015]. He surprised me in the Dustin Poirier fight [September 2014]. I’ve bet against him and lost several times.
But I think Khabib will go in looking to do what he always does. It’s similar to [welterweight] Colby Covington. Those successful grapplers are having a lot of success with heavy pressure and a good gas tank. They may throw wild punches just to keep you on your guard and on the defense, which allows them to push you to the fence and get you on your back.
Mike. Mothafuckin’. Brown. I’ll tell you what. I like this guy, Mike Brown. You wanna know why?
I think it’s pretty clear from his breakdown of the fight that he’s an undercover #TeamMcGregor guy, living in hiding. He continues to bet against and foolishly doubt Conor, even after each and every win, because he’s superstitious! Duhhhh, why else would he do that?
I mean, nobody could ACTUALLY be doubting Conor McGregor in real life after all he’s done, right? RIGHT?!?!?!
Wrong, obviously, as the above statement was meant to be read in a sarcastic tone. Out of the eleven top trainers in the mixed martial arts world that Brett Okamoto spoke with, only one predicted a victory for Mystic Mac – Duane Ludwig – Ludwig MMA. Six went with “The Eagle”, as you read above, and the other five failed to give a final prediction.
Cowards.
You’ll see. You’ll all see.