Buyer Beware - NBA Free Agency
The date is June 4th, which means that NBA Free Agency officially starts in about a month. Seeing as how there are only two teams left who are focusing on actually playing, I would imagine the rest of the league is doing their due diligence on preparing for the NBA draft and the start of free agency. I figure, Reags has you covered with everything you need to know about this year’s draft class, so why not take some time to look at the free agency landscape as well. The NBA has an interesting history with free agency, and talking heads on TV will tell you over and over again how teams are going to be more cautious this summer when it comes to shelling out massive contracts. Why is that? Well a few reasons, for starters, the salary cap heading into next year projects to be just $101M with the luxury tax threshold being $123M. There was thought that these numbers would increase, and who knows maybe in the future with gambling now legal they will, but for the time being teams are going to have to figure out how to build their teams with these current limits.
To start, let’s take a look at the cap situation and who is even going to have money to spend. Take this with a grain of salt as things can always change between now and July 6th, but this is what the landscape looks like at this moment
As you can see, there are quite a few teams heading into this summer with a crap ton of money to spend in hopes of improving their roster. However, I want to warn any potential GM that’s reading this blog (not the smart ones like my best friend Danny, but maybe the dumb ones like Vlade) to not forget history when it comes to big time free agent signings. Consider this a buyer beware warning, because NBA history is filled with horrible deals that have sort of handcuffed a number of teams. Granted a lot of this happened when the NBA spending was outrageous, but there’s a lot to learn from others mistakes.
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Let’s start with just last summer
Jeff Teague 3/$57M
When you see these numbers it’s a little shocking. $19M a year for Jeff Teague? At this point the Wolves needed a PG given they traded Ricky Rubio, but here’s the problem. Teague isn’t $19M a year good, and that third year is a player option. Do you think he’s turning down another $19M in his age 30 season? No chance. Teague is currently the second highest paid player on this MIN roster, and just turned in the worst defensive season of his career. It also probably doesn’t help that he was average at best in his playoff series against HOU.
George Hill 3/$57M
Again, this is for Vlade. Do not make the same mistake this summer that you made last summer. This is essentially the same deal that Teague got, only he’s three year’s older. The one big difference is that his 3rd year is only guaranteed $1M where as Teague has that player option. Even still, SAC giving Hill this much money made no sense then, and seeing as how they traded him I think that was there way of admitting it.
Tony Snell 4/$46M
If you look at that list of teams with cap space, you know who you don’t see? The Bucks. Do you know why? Because they do stupid shit like give Tony goddamn Snell 46 million dollars. A guy that during the year was an average at best shooter, and just shit his pants in the Bucks playoff series against BOS with a 29/23% performance, there’s no way the Bucks feel like he’s been worth the money. He was never all that much of a 3P shooter while in CHI, and now money that could be spent elsewhere to finally help MIL get over the hump is tied in to a player they probably can’t move without having to give up something else of value.
Otto Porter 4/$104M
The Wizards were in a tough spot here as they had to pay this to match an offer sheet by the Nets. While Porter isn’t a bad player, this is the risk several GMs are going to face this summer with their RFAs. Porter is good, and is a nice piece on their team, but I’m not sure he’s max money good. This essentially locked the Wizards into the trio of Wall/Beal/Porter, a group that I’m sure Wizards fans will tell you has done nothing but underachieve.
As you can see, there were only a handful of free agent signings that proved to be not the best idea. Last summer was filled with guys who teams got on great contracts (Shaun Livingston, CJ Miles, Tyreke Evans, Joe Ingles, Bojan Bogdanovic, James Johnson, Dewayne Dedmon, Aron Baynes) and it looked like maybe teams were starting to learn their lesson. This is important moving forward because we all remember what a disaster the summer of 2016 was.
You see, if I were a GM, it would be this summer that I would use as a model as to what to avoid. Just because you may have money to burn doesn’t mean you need to be completely idiotic about how you spend it. For example,
Timofey Mozgov 4/$64M
Imagine thinking Mozgov is a $16M a year player? I don’t care if he was immediately traded after his first year, there is just no way to justify paying this guy that much money. Why the Nets even traded for that contract is a whole different situation, but the 31 year old played just 31 games last year and averaged 4/3. The Nets have a better, younger center already on the roster, which certainly doesn’t help matters much.
Nicolas Batum 5/$120M
Batum isn’t a bad player by any means. He is a versatile wing that can stretch the defense and when healthy he can be a plus defender. But this kind of money? Now that he’s had health concerns, all this contract has done is hamstring the Hornets from being able to do anything to get back into the playoffs. In fact, considering his salary goes from $24M to $25.5M to a player option of $27M in his final year at his age 31 season, this may be one of the most untradeable contracts in the entire NBA. Did Jordan ever give an explanation for this?
Hassan Whiteside 4/$98M
Do we think the Heat regret this decision yet or nah? With how the future of the league is trending combined with the fact that he was basically unplayable in this year’s playoffs and appears to have an awful attitude about being on this team, safe to say this deal is a complete disaster.
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Chandler Parsons 4/$94M
This one is tough because we can always play the what if game with Parsons. When healthy, he was a legit player who fit today’s NBA. But that’s the thing, he can’t stay healthy. He’s played a total of 70 games in the first two years of his contract, and he still has another almost $50M guaranteed. In theory you could get what the Grizzlies were thinking, pairing Parsons with Gasol/Conley, but maybe take in to consideration that in 3 of the 5 previous seasons he never played over 66 games. Sometimes you have to prioritize health over potential, but I get it when you’re a small market like MEM, you sort of have to overpay to get guys to come. It’s just turned out to be a disaster.
Evan Turner 4/$70M
I don’t think Evan Turner stinks, I think he just had a really good agent who took advantage of the market. Coming off a great year under Brad, he played his cards exactly how you should if you’re a player. Now for the Blazers, the fit never really made sense, nor does the idea of paying him $17.5M a year. The Blazers have one of the most expensive rosters in the league, and that’s a tough pill to swallow when you look at their recent playoff exit. They don’t really have the space to get all that better unless they unload one of their star guards which I don’t really think makes them better, and a big reason why is because of this albatross of a Turner contract for a player they didn’t REALLY need.
Joakim Noah 4/$72M
I think Clem and every Knicks fan would agree they are fine with this money if only because it hurts James Dolan, but for the same of team building, it’s fucked the Knicks. Between this money and the THJ deal last summer, the Knicks LOVE giving guys overpriced 4 year deals. They currently have 4 guys making big money that are probably overpaid, and 3 of them don’t come off the books until 2020. Considering Noah is already 33 and is basically exiled from the team, I can’t say this was the best use of their available funds.
Kent Bazemore 4/$70M
Look, they have to find a way to keep someone in ATL, but this was a little excessive. It’s not like it ruined the Hawks cap situation moving forward so maybe it’s not as terrible as some of the others, but it’s still a clear overpayment.
Luol Deng 4/$72M
I swear to God the Lakers front office hasn’t the slightest clue what the hell they are doing. Maybe the play for GMs this summer is to just do the exact opposite of what the Lakers did.
However, just like last summer, there were some great value signings in the summer of 2016. Guys like Lin, Horford, E’Twaun Moore, Tomas Satoransky, Wayne Ellington, McCollum, Westbrook, all provided some good value for their current deals. Obviously as we look at this year’s crop of cap space flush teams, obviously teams like PHI/HOU/LAL are going to do everything they can to create enough space for Lebron. That’s the no brainer. The interesting part will be what they do with that money if they strike out. Only one team can get him which means the other front offices will be left to find an alternative route. Not as easy as it sounds when you look at this year’s FA class. Here’s a quick snapshot, you can find the entire list here
In terms of UFA you have names like Durant/Redick/Paul/Boogie/Favors/Isaiah/Noel/Bradley/Rondo/Evans etc, and you can add Lebron since he’s opting out just like he always does. To me the interesting part of this summer will come in RFA, where you have names like Jabari Parker/Aaron Gordon/Dante Exum/Marcus Smart/Julius Randle/Zach LaVine/Jusuf Nurkic/Clint Capela/Montrezl Harrell. It’s here that I’m most interested in seeing how GMs react, and if any of these teams with huge amounts of cap space that aren’t a Lebron destination will start to throw big money at other team’s guys. It’s not all that common that RFA leave their original team, but would it shock anybody if there were some sign and trades? Or will spiteful GMs try and ruin another team’s cap by overpaying?
Either way next month is going to be littered with teams that panic and do something stupid just because they have the money. The thing is over the last few years it hasn’t been just the shitty franchises that have made this mistake. Cap space is a wonderful tool to have when it comes to rebuilding your franchise, but as we’ve seen it can also ruin things before you even realize it. Get your popcorn ready.