Is Notre Dame Finally Going to Get Us An 8 Team Playoff?
ESPN and the College Football Playoff are currently on a 12-year, $7.2 billion contract that runs through 2026. Does that mean that the contract cannot be reopened for another 8 years? Absolutely not. The College Football Playoff has been and always will be about making money. Ask TCU why they didn’t make it in 2014. Anyways, while the option and motivation is there to renegotiate to 8 teams, I think it’s going to take something crazy happening to finally get the ball in motion. And that something crazy may just be Notre Dame.
Is Notre Dame a top 4 team in the country? Eh, maybe. Their win over Michigan in Week 1 looks pretty good right now, but their victories over Stanford and Virginia Tech look less impressive as time goes on, as both teams are now unranked instead of #7 and #24 in the country. I think most college football experts would probably take at least Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Georgia/LSU over the Irish on a neutral field. Regardless, a 12-0 Notre Dame team makes the College Football Playoff 100 times out of 100. I don’t care what their schedule or eye test looks like. And the Irish will likely be favored in each of their remaining 5 games, meaning the path is very clear for them to make the final four. Notre Dame would be the first team included from a non-Power 5 conference in the history of the playoff. That means that at least two conferences would be left sitting at home, regardless of if they’re 12-1 conference champions or not.
Let’s be clear that my point is not that Notre Dame making it would be the crazy thing to get enough traction to change system, it would be who DIDN’T make it that would be the issue. With having 5 power conferences, at least one conference is always the odd man out. In 2014, the Big 12 didn’t have a representative. In 2015, the PAC 12 received no invite. In 2016, the Big 12 sat out once again. And in 2017, both the Big 10 and the PAC 12 were left at home. The NCAA is literally leaving money on the table, something that already blows my mind. Call me a homer, call me whatever you want, but the Big 10 dominates the Midwest area of the United States. Not having an Ohio State/Penn State/Michigan type team hurts your appeal to many people. But on top of the money, they also have to be getting heat from the conferences’ commissioners each time that their teams don’t have a representative. How can you leave an entire Power 5 conference out? And now this year, with Notre Dame looking like a favorite to make it, are we talking another 2, or possibly 3 conferences missing the playoff? Let’s first look at the 4 teams that are locked in to go to final four should they win out.
1. Alabama
The Crimson Tide have shown to be head and shoulders above every other team in college football this year. Pair that with the fact that they are defending National Champions and would be the SEC Champions, too, and the Tide are clearly in if they keep winning. Their remaining schedule of @ LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn, and the SEC Championship would be enough cause for concern to pencil in most teams, but the Tide are on a different level than all teams.
2. Ohio State
Buckeye Nation’s fan base stretches nationwide, making them one of the biggest draws that the College Football Playoff can get. To go along with that, Ohio State has started off the season 7-0, with two big road victories over TCU and Penn State. The Buckeyes are a clear lock to move on to the playoff if they win the Big 10, and their remaining path would make one think that they will be able to do that. Aside from Michigan at the end of November, the Buckeyes have no other ranked opponents on their schedule.
3. Clemson
When Clemson hosts #16 North Carolina State this Saturday, it will mark the last time they will face a ranked opponent for the rest of the regular season. Should the Tigers come out victorious, their path to the playoff will be more clear than anyone’s in the country. In fact, according to FiveThirtyEight, Clemson already has the nation’s best chance of making the final four. That comes with pretty good reason too, as they have been involved in the last three playoffs, winning it all in 2017. If the Tigers are 13-0, they’re obviously in. The real question is if NCST wins and then plows through the rest of their unranked schedule, are they in? Shouldn’t matter though. Clemson is the class of the ACC.
4. Notre Dame
Like I said earlier, a 12-0 Notre Dame team makes it every single time. The Irish have gotten through Michigan, Stanford, and Virginia Tech. Their remaining schedule only includes two notable names, Florida State and USC, both of whom are unranked and down this year. The Irish are the team that we need to make it if we want to cause some commotion, because if an Independent team like Notre Dame makes it, that’s just another conference champion guaranteed to be sitting at home.
Do I think all 4 of those teams will win out? No, probably not. College football is too wild. But it’s not crazy at all to think they will. All four of them will be favored in every single game they play for the rest of the year. And if these four do finish undefeated, here are some possible very impressive resumes that will be on the outside looking in.
Who Does That Leave Out?
The Big 12 Champion
Oklahoma, Texas, and even West Virginia are all sitting inside the Top 15 with only one loss. That means that two of them could, and probably will, finish the season at 11-1 with a chance of beating each other to move to 12-1 and be a Power 5 Conference champion. Damn I hope it’s Texas. Texas carries as much, if not more weight, than any team in the country. But if those four previously mentioned teams are undefeated, then Texas can bitch and moan all they want. Being 12-1 would make them back, but being 12-1 would put them in the Sugar Bowl instead of the final four.
The Pac 12 Champion
Man I wish that the Pac 12 had an undefeated team left. Rooting for chaos would be very enjoyable. Instead, it appears that they’re all going to beat up on each other and make it obviously the conference to leave out this year. There’s still hope though. Oregon is sitting at 5-1, with their only loss coming in overtime to #7 at the time Stanford. The Ducks led 24-7 at the half. 99% of the time, being a Power 5 Champion with your only loss being to a Top 10 team in overtime in Week 4 easily punches your ticket to the playoff. This year, with Notre Dame and Texas back in the mix, Oregon could be as low as 6 with that resume.
UCF
UCF has no chance of making a 4 team playoff, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have a strong argument. They’ve won 19 straight games dating back to December of 2016. During that span, they’ve beaten a ranked USF team, a ranked Memphis team, a top 10 Auburn team, and everyone else on their schedule. What else do you want them to do? There’s really not much else they can do. These schedules are set years in advance. And even when chaos occurs, UCF finds its peak and stays there. Take this past weekend for example. Numbers 2, 6, 7, and 8 all lost this week in the AP Poll and voters still left UCF at #10. The Golden Knights have a pretty good chance of running the table for the 2nd straight year, but in a 4 team format, the best they’ll be able to do is have a strong complaint on the outside looking in.
Michigan
As much as I hate to say it, Michigan beating Ohio State may be the key to this entire equation. Should the Wolverines rattle off 12 straight wins after losing on the road to Notre Dame in Week 1, they would have the most impressive 1 loss resume that you could imagine. They would have victories over Wisconsin (twice), Ohio State, Michigan State, and Penn State, and their only loss would be to another playoff team in a non-conference week 1 game. That’s what the committee wants you to do. But if Michigan, Oregon, Ohio State, and Texas/Oklahoma are all sitting there with 1 loss, and only one team makes, there is going to be lots of frustration coming some from very powerful fan bases and universities in the college football world.
I mean, the heat that the committee would be getting from teams like this sitting at home would be unreal. Can you imagine a 12-1 Texas team that just rattled off 12 straight wins and a Big 12 Championship missing out on the playoff? We may have to go to 8 teams this year! And then you could have UCF chiming in that they have run the table two straight years in a row. What else do you want them to do? Even if you, like I do, think the Golden Knights would get run off the field in a playoff game, they could make the field of 8 and get the shot they deserve. You just can’t fit them into a 4 team field. Does this not look just about as appetizing as three straight weeks could possibly look?
Sub in Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, or whoever comes out in those slots at the end of the year. The point is that we need 8 teams. I don’t think anyone disagrees with that. There are and will continue to be teams with legitimate gripes when they’re sitting just outside the top four. There will always be complainers, but if you’re 12-1 sitting at #5, your argument is valid. If you’re 9-3 wanting in the 8 team playoff, the complaint will be less warranted. I think we need something drastic to happen to get us there before ESPNs 12-year, $7.2 billion contract runs out in 2026. Please keep winning Notre Dame. And please keep winning Texas, UCF, Oregon, and Michigan. The squeaky wheel gets the grease. If enough teams have legitimate gripes, I think we can finally get what everyone wants and many teams deserve.