College Hoops Mailbag: All-America Teams and NCAA Tournament Runs

Yeah, I know it’s been another slow week of games due to finals and more importantly due to how Christmas fell this year. With Christmas falling on a Monday, teams aren’t going to play Christmas Eve, Christmas and then teams don’t typically schedule or play Friday night games, so it was just a weird timing. That said it was obviously a little crazy week with Wofford beating UNC, San Diego State beating Gonzaga while Tennessee and Louisville got scares from Furman and Albany respectively. So with the holiday right around the corner, it’s time for another weekly college hoops mailbag. First, though I want to thank everyone for continuing to submit questions for this weekly thing and making it enjoyable to do. Merry Christmas (we’re saying it again) to everyone reading.

Yeah, I think this St. John’s team is the fifth best team in the Big East and more importantly they have changed the way they play. They can get up and down and score if they want but more importantly they have turned into a good defensive team. They rank 11th in the country in AdjD while ranking 2nd in block percentage. The addition of guys like Marvin Clark and Justin Simon have completely changed this roster makeup. Once they get Marcus LoVett back from injury the backcourt becomes loaded again with him and Ponds and you’ll see the Johnnies scoring again. They should win a game in the NCAA Tournament and if they made a Sweet 16 I won’t be overly shocked. There’s talent on this roster.

As for UConn, they should be a national program again but that’s only going to happen once Kevin Ollie is no longer head coach. I hate calling for peoples jobs, because they have families and it’s a job, but Ollie simply is a bad head coach. The offensive scheme is one of the worst in the country and he’s made the Huskies almost unbearable to watch. They just try and spread you out while driving and attacking and that hasn’t worked. They had 5 assists last night against Arizona. Ollie is made to be an assistant coach who specializes on the defensive side of the ball. Once they get him out and make a correct hire, they’ll be fine. It’s still UConn.

Absolutely not. What makes you think this St. Mary’s team is better? They have 1 somewhat quality win over New Mexico State with losses to Washington State and Georgia on neutral courts. The defense has become atrocious, which is a weird thing to see, but Gonzaga can take advantage of that. Similar to how people just default to taking Kansas to win the Big 12, because it’s the safe bet, it’s what you should do with Gonzaga. I don’t necessarily think this Gonzaga team is great, but its backcourt is better than St. Mary’s and while Jock Landale is probably the best player on the court, Gonzaga can give them troubles with Johnathan Williams.

They haven’t exactly played the easiest schedule so the record is a little unfair to look at. They’ve lost at Belmont, at Arizona State, home to USC, Kansas State and Middle Tennessee while neutral court to Virginia and Seton Hall. No one will really knock teams for those losses, maybe Middle Tennessee since it’s at home. That said, this team sucks at shooting the ball and that’s what they want to do. They get up a bunch of threes, ranking 44th in the country in 3PA/FGA, yet they are shooting just 29.8% as a team (319th in the country). Matthew Fisher-Davis who is supposed to be the go-to guy for this team is shooting just 31% from the 3-point line. They aren’t talented enough to beat teams if Fisher-Davis is doing that. Saben Lee is shooting 16% from the 3-point line. It’s just atrocious as the only two players over 35% for the team are Riley LaChance and Jeff Roberson. Defensively they’ve actually been decent. But, with how much this team wants to beat you shooting the ball it’s just not happening. There’s also just not a great ton of talent on the roster at the moment, especially with the SEC getting better.

So Trae Young is the early favorite for National Player of the Year, which means he’s on the All-American team. My December 22 All-American teams would be:

First Team

G- Trae Young (Oklahoma)

G – Jalen Brunson (Villanova)

G – Tra Holder (Arizona State)

F – Trevon Bluiett (Xavier)

F – Marvin Bagley (Duke)

Second Team

G – Jevon Carter (West Virginia)

G – Mikal Bridges (Villanova)

F – Bonzie Colson (Notre Dame)

F – Deandre Ayton (Arizona)

F – Jordan Murphy (Minnesota)

Third Team

G – Allonzo Trier (Arizona)

G – Desi Rodriguez (Seton Hall)

G – Landry Shamet (Wichita State)

F – Luke Maye (UNC)

F – Miles Bridges (Michigan State)

Well it’s clearly not Homer Drew. Scott Drew has been able to get some big time recruits, but just look at what Bryce is doing at Vanderbilt. It’s going to be Bryce.

Sponsors change every year, so just look at that. As for the attraction of teams that play in them:

Upside – Teams typically get to play quality opponents. We’ve seen it backfire at like Battle 4 Atlantis this year when Nova was banking on playing Purdue and/or Arizona but instead ended up with Tennessee and Northern Iowa. Typically you’re going to get quality opponents and if you win those that tends to help come seed time in March. From a locker room standpoint, you also get to spend a few days away from everything and build that team chemistry. Numerous teams and players have talked about that and it truly does help especially early in the year. More importantly, we’ve seen teams use this as a jumping off point for runs.

Downside – The biggest downside is the fact that you can lose those quality games. It ends up being a storyline and people will remember that. That other thing is it doesn’t really help you with much in the sense of getting ready for the NCAA Tournament. You never play back to back games, so it’s not truly setting a tournament feel. It can lead to fatigue and frustration.

It’s a little bit of both. They struggle stopping dribble penetration and part of that is the fact that they are getting past wings and also that Sean Miller is/was playing two bigs. We saw teams like SMU just stretch Arizona out, bringing Ayton up out of the post and using a quicker guy to get by him. The rotations are a bit off to with that lineup because Ristic is protecting the rim and Ayton is out of position. To me though it starts with the guard play. Now, they do have Rawle Alkins back who is the best guard defender, but guys like Trier and PJC need to stop the dribble better. They are getting beat pretty easily, which is forcing Arizona to rotate and that’s where they are getting messed up. I think you’ll start seeing more of guys like Brandon Randolph, who at 6’6″ can be a positive defensively. Sean Miller is a defensive coach first and foremost, so you know during this 9 day stretch that’s what’s being worked on.

It does but to a degree. They aren’t like Florida where they need to hit outside jumpers in order to be successful. Arizona State can get to the free throw line – they are 3rd in the country at FTA/FGA. The large part of that is due to Holder/ Evans being so tough to stay in front of. Along with that Holder and Evans can break guys down forcing rotational help defensively, which allows them to make an easy pass to a guy like Romello White on the interior. Arizona State is a little bit more balanced than people give them credit for, but they still struggle defensively. That can change with Mickey Mitchell and Kimani Lawrence joining the team, but they won’t be great defensively. They still need to outscore teams. So if that’s the case then that’s where live by the 3 die by the 3 applies.

I mean Oklahoma is an obvious answer here. Other teams with truly just one ‘star’ that can make a run – and we’ll use run relative to team success/standards:

West Virginia (Jevon Carter)

Xavier (Trevon Bluiett)

UT-Arlington (Kevin Hervey)

Alabama (Collin Sexton)

Florida Gulf Coast (Brandon Goodwin)

It’s different reasons for each team. To start with USC, the FBI investigation coupled with injuries have absolutely killed them. They have a bunch of talent, but this team was glued together by De’Anthony Melton, who hasn’t played yet this year due to eligibility questions. Melton was the one player on the roster who could impact a game without having to dominate the ball. He’s a strong defender. He gets others involved. Without him, USC has been screwed. Throw in injuries and it’s a mess. Stanford also has had a bunch of injuries – playing most of the year without 3 key players.

As for Cal, there’s just a lack of talent. They lost a bunch over the last two years and then a coaching change drew others away. They can get back with Jones and how recruits, but it’s simply a real lack of talent on the roster. UCLA is a little different. They lost a couple guys to one and dones who they probably didn’t expect. They lost three rotation players to the China incident. They are relying on freshmen who haven’t been able to integrate into the system just yet.

I’m going to go Virginia, Miami and Notre Dame as my top 4, with UNC possibly getting in there over Notre Dame. However, UNC’s schedule isn’t favorable to them as they draw Duke and Notre Dame twice and then have to go to Virginia, Syracuse, Louisville, Florida State and Virginia Tech. The only home game they get that could swing a game is Miami. That’s pretty brutal. Notre Dame gets Georgia Tech and NC State twice. The ACC is loaded this year and I think the winner will only win 12, MAYBE 13 games in conference play.

I think they get five in. The locks are Michigan State/Purdue/Minnesota. After that you’re looking at a group of Michigan/Northwestern/Maryland/Ohio State/Penn State/Wisconsin as bubble teams. They aren’t getting a bunch in from there and with how bad the conference looked in nonconference, beating each other up in conference play isn’t going to help their cause. It’s simply a down year and it will show in seeding for the NCAA Tournament. You’re probably looking at a 1, 5, 7, 10, 11 seed type deal. I just don’t see who gets in and how more than 2 bubble teams make the jump. Northwestern needs to beat Oklahoma tonight.