Jose Abreu STINKS Right Now And That Needs To Change Immediately

It was a frustrating weekend in White Sox land.  They started a 16 game stretch last week against the Royals, Tigers and Orioles and had an opportunity to make a nice little run and keep things interesting heading into May.  But they left us wanting much more and sit at 3-3 so far in this stretch.

It started when Lucas Giolito went down with a tweaked hammy:

Could be worse.  Could be shoulder inflammation or some shit.  But Giolito has started to put it together and I think he looks great all things considered.  He needs all of the innings he can get in order to maintain his new delivery’s repeatability and turn it into muscle memory.  Missing a start or two isn’t the end of the world, but it sucks nonetheless.

Aside from that, Moncada was okay, Anderson stayed RED hot, and the rest of the team was whatever.  Other than Jose Abreu.

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Jose Abreu has been one of the most consistent hitters in baseball since he’s been stateside.  He’s had a few slow April’s and I’m not *really* worried all things considered, but he looks like complete and total ass right now.

It started Thursday in Kansas City or the Tim Anderson bat flip game.  I wish I could complement this blog with videos, but MLB won’t allow me to do so.  Anyways, Abreu had a 3-0 count with the bases loaded.  Jake Diekman, a left handed pitcher with a career walk rate that is about 5/9IP, snaps off a slider almost to say “I know he’s got the green light but do NOT want him swinging”.

Well, Abreu swung anyways.  At a back foot slider on a 3-0 count.  It’d have been appropriate had the count been 0-2, as Diekman is admittedly nasty.  Think Josh Hader-light.  Whatever, no harm no foul right?  Wrong.  He swung at ball 4 a second time in a row and ended up striking out.

Sox lose 4-3.  I was livid.  One of the worst at bats I’ve ever seen in my life.

But Abreu, who a lot of Sox fans wanted extended this past offseason, has shown some bad signs of regression.  I don’t think K rate totally matters for a hitter so long as it’s sustainable from year to year.  Yes, obviously lower K rates are better and putting the ball in play generates more on base opportunities and blah blah blah.  I get that.  But Abreu is 32 years old now.  He’s not going to get “better” per se.  Nobody really does at 32.

That’s why a few of his numbers really scare me.

Let’s go back to his K rate.  His career K rate is 19.6%.  Solidly average or even a tick better.  But this year?  26.1%.  Not good at all.  That’s worse than Moncada’s.  As players age, they microscopically lose explosive qualities bit by bit.  And in Abreu’s instance, I’m talking about his hands.  Now there isn’t really a way to quantify how quick one’s hands are, but Abreu is missing on  fastballs worse than he ever has before, which shows me signs of aging.

And that is kind of weird considering his barrel percentage is near the top of the league right now:

When a hitter sits on a fastball in any particular location, it’s probably the easiest pitch to find a barrel on.  So Abreu is finding the barrel at a really good clip, but still looks like shit.  This tells me that Abreu is forcing himself to cheat on fastballs, but is still swinging through them way too frequently.  Hands = slower.

But when a hitter is sitting dead red on one pitch, that leaves him vulnerable to other pitches.  It’s borderline impossible for a hitter to adjust mid flight to a pitch he’s not sitting on/expecting.  When they attempt to adjust mid-flight, they’re fucked.  That’s Jose Abreu right now.  Guessing fastball, trying to adjust offspeed, and looking like a complete idiot in the batter’s box like he did last week against Diekman on KC.

Now he’s had bad months before.  Usually he pairs a bad month with one where he’s on an absolute heater.  I really hope that’s the case, but I’m not holding my breath this time either.  And needless to say, the offense goes as Moncada, Anderson and Abreu go.  If Abreu is a league average or worse hitter in 2019, the Sox are gunning for another top 5 or 8 pick.  If he adjusts and I’m incorrect there’s no reason they can’t be a middle of the pack team for the remainder of the season.

Nevertheless, Abreu needs to step the fuck up, starting tonight in Baltimore.