Breaking Down The NHL Draft With Mark Seidel Of North American Central Scouting
What started with me trolling Canada about how this USA Under-18 team was so good that we have subplanted Canada has hockey’s main world power lead to a dialogue with an actual pro scout about how the top of the draft is shaping up and what the Blackhawks should do with the 3rd overall pick. It was a treat to talk to Mark Seidel and he really helped shine a light on some of these players most people just pretend to know about. If you guys enjoyed this let me know and I will try to work in more SPORTS blogs on this website.
Bold lettering will be my questions, answers will follow below.
Tell us a little about your organization. Prospect rankings seem to appear out of thin air this time of year. Explain your process and how you arrive at this list.
We have 13 scouts positioned all over the world. The main difference between us and NHL Central Scouting is that we are a private company. We have proprietary information that we sell to NHL teams where Central Scouting actually works for the league.
How long have you been doing this?
I’ve been in this business for 26 years, which is just to another way to say that I’m old.
You have Vasily Podkolzin ranked 8th on your board. That is lower than most of the pre-draft rankings we’ve seen so far. Why did he “fall” for you?
He’s certainly a player with a super high ceiling. He’s a really high end prospect. There are just games when he can be invisible even when playing against his peers like in the U-18 tournament. He doesn’t necessarily play hard every night and if he’s not ready you’d be worried about how prepared he is to play for Rockford in Milwaukee on a Tuesday. There is the “Russian factor”, but it’s not a big concern. His agent says that he wants to come over and have a long career in the NHL, but it’s always at least a small risk that you wouldn’t have with players from any other country. He’s also a wing. To me, centers and defensemen are inherently more valuable so there was a bit of a positional drop for him on our board as well.
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Let’s about the three centers at the top of the draft; Cozens, Dach, and Turcotte. We are going to just throw away Hughes and Kakko because they’re not available. Everyone says that these three are so closely bunched that you can’t really separate them. How do you rank them?
Cozens, Turcotte, and then Dach. Dach does everything well, but maybe doesn’t do anything at an elite level. That doesn’t make him a bad prospect by any pick, he just might not be the #1 center on a good team. He might be your #2 center for 10 years and that is not easy to find.
People say that Cozens is similar to a Ryan Kesler or Ryan O’Reilly. Would you say that is accurate?
I think that is a fair comparison. I think Cozens is more of a complete player at this stage of his development than O’Reilly and probably has more offensive upside than O’Reilly had coming out of the draft. Obviously O’Reilly has had a great career that speaks for itself, but Cozens is similar, yeah.
I’m really excited about Alex Turcotte. People have mentioned him in the same breath as Jonathan Toews. Can you speak to that bit?
There’s some similarities there. What Toews has provided in leadership can’t really be measured, but Turcotte really competes, but he looks for his offense a little more than Toews. He is undersized, but he’s really thick. Strong on the puck and on his skates.
If Turcotte were 6’1 or 6’2 instead of 5’11 would he be a slam dunk for the 3rd pick?
No, I don’t think so. I don’t think he’s getting penalized for that really. Size and strength is a little less important than it was 10 years ago. You worry about him a little against bigger stronger centers, but he’s going to be a really good player.
Let’s get to your #3 overall rated player; Bowen Byram. Everyone says he’s far and away the best defenseman in this draft. Do you agree?
Yes.
What are some of the holes in Byram’s game, if any?
He doesn’t really have any that I can see. He’s a pretty complete player. He had a dominant year this year for Vancouver. I guess, maybe, you can say that he’s not overly physical, but that could be simply because he doesn’t need to be at this level. That’s also not as big of a concern in the new NHL.
How does he compare to Dahlin, Heiskanen, Makar, and some of the other elite defensemen we’ve seen taken at the top of recent drafts.
He’s a notch below Dahlin, but he’s right there with the others. He’s really special. I’m not sure what the Blackhawks development model is or what they’ll do with him next year. Probably send him back to Junior, but he doesn’t have much else to prove at that level.
How does he compare to Boqvist, Jokiharju, Ian Mitchell, and the other defensive prospects the Blackhawks have?
Oh he’s better. He’s a true #1 defenseman. A franchise level defensemen. Jokiharju looks like a good defenseman. Boqvist…he probably hasn’t progressed, defensively, as much as they would’ve liked. They’re good prospects. Byram is above them though
Sounds like you think the Blackhawks should take Byram
I would take Byram, yeah.
If Detroit calls and offers something to move up from #6 to get him, would you listen?
I would listen, but it would have to be substantial. Only way you do that is if you really want to replenish your centers and you’re cotent with getting anyone of Cozens, Turcotte, or Dach at #6.
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Give me a couple of “sleeper” picks that the Blackhawks could take in the 2nd round that we would be excited about
Jamieson Rees is a guy we had ranked as high as 11th at one point in this process, but his stock has fallen because of a suspension
He was just at the U-18s for Canada and he was one of, if not, their best players in the tournament. He could be there at the top of the second round. Another one is John Beecher. Beecher was probably lost in the shuffle a little bit as USA’s 3rd line center in a draft year where they had Hughes and Turcotte. In a normal year he’d probably be a #1 center or at worst a #2. He’s a big strong kid who produced when given the opportunities.
Is it harder to evaluate the US Development Program kids given their competition when compared to the CHL teams?
Oh yeah. Absolutely. It’s easy to fall in love with players on this team because they kill almost everyone on their schedule. That’s not to say that they aren’t great players, but you don’t necessarily ever see them have to grind. Probably one the first times that team had to grind was against Russia in the U-18s and you could look down the bench at some of the players who weren’t necessarily the top guys and you would see some bad body language. They weren’t used to it not coming easy.
One more name from the U-18 team…Cam Rowe. What would you think about him in the 2nd or 3rd round?
He’s another kid who has been in a tough spot since he has been backing up Spencer Knight, but Rowe has been a highly touted goalie since he was 12 or 13 years-old. I think he’s a really good prospect. Very high upside.
Is there a name on the draft board that if the Hawks took him you’d scratch your head a bit?
Not really. I’ve been around long enough to know the Hawks. They do a really good guy. You consistently see them hit on draft picks. The only one, maybe, would be Podkolzin. Just because he has the highest bust potential and the questions about when he will come over.
So, it’s Byram and don’t look back?
I think it should be Byram, yeah. It’s really hard to find guys like him. They’re so rare. You can’t trade for them. Can’t pass on a chance to get a franchise dman.
So there you have it…
Big thanks to Mark. You can follow him at @MarkSeidel. I feel like around draft time, no matter the sport, you get a lot of grey area and non-commital comments from scouts. That’s not Mark. He speaks plainly. Doesn’t tip toe around. He tells you what is on his mind and I feel like you can trust him after getting off the phone. Sounds