Hello all. I am taking over for Rico Bosco as Barstool’s oddshark correspondent. Rico had to retire due to other commitments so now you’re stuck with me. It’s not all bad, though. I hired a transition team to make the process easier, maybe the best transition team to ever be assembled. Was very impressed! Thanks to them the transition of power went smoothly and it is now Inauguration Day.
As corny as it sounds, I genuinely do bet to have fun as opposed to winning money. There’s nothing like that rush that betting on grown men playing a child’s game gives out. It’s the best. So if you’re just reading this blog to read it, I highly suggest you give gambling a go cause it’s awesome. Keeping in the tradition of having fun, I’m gonna be mostly writing about overs because I think they are by far the most fun to watch. You don’t even have to be a sports fan, you just sit and watch points be scored. Don’t think I forgot about my game spread fellas, though. A couple of weeks ago Louis and I hired a gambling intern. Louis set him up with his own account to bet on. He’s a stat guy, he does math, he likes stats. I do not, I am a feels guy. I like to look at games that are on national TV, and just pick what I like at first glance. Therefore I think my intern and I are a perfect match.
I’m gonna try to keep the weekly blog sticking to the main betting sports like the NFL, College Football, and College Basketball with a bit of other shit sprinkled in when it’s relevant. Maybe we’ll do a little Stanley Cup playoffs in April or MLB Spring Training in March, who knows. But for now, it’s just football and college baskets.
Now to the Gambling Intern/Math guy/Stat guy, Matty Math
What’s good I’m Glen’s math guy. Glen’s a shoot from the hip kind of player from what I gather. Fearless, resilient, impressively loyal to overs. To sort of counterbalance his approach that might be a little intimidating to lesser men, I’m here to be a stick in the mud. I got here through winning a one on one handicapping contest coordinated by Sales Guy Louis. Been risking his cash for a few weeks to the tune of a 20-17 NFL and CFB combined record landing literally even. I’ve backed off a little because risking somebody else’s cash while you party is Sunday scary fuel and I don’t know if Louis and I’s relationship is there yet. I ran my own money plays back 12 weeks and am 64-64 in all sports. Literally the human push. I try to stay disciplined and balance a contrarian focus with trends that matter and good old fashion statistical analysis. Double major in football and baseball with a minor in basketball. I worship bowl season. Fade the public-palooza. Can’t wait. Favorite meal of the year. The conference ships are when it first starts to taste a little like bowl season so I’m ready to go.
- The most striking trend out of those is Colorado’s 11-2 ATS over their last 13. The programs are very different year over year but it is still somewhat significant that Colorado is 0-6 in the last 6 against the Huskies. Both defenses are legit, both quarterbacks are legit but the Pac-12 competition has not been so legit. Since both have dominated the weak you gotta turn to measurements of their domination. Washington puts up 45 a game to Colorado’s 35, allows 17 to their 19. Colorado has scored 53 touchdowns and allowed 26, Washington has scored 71 and allowed the same number. Overall, I think the difference in all around talent shows through. Sorry Michigan. Pick: Washington -8.5 (Buy the hook if you can)
- The MAC is a fair number around 17. Ohio can play defense and has been my darling at times this year but I think it’s a no play outa me. Western Michigan is too filthy to fade. Don’t even really have a lean.
- These Alabama trends are absurd. Just absurd. Another hard pass but lean Florida gun to temple. Might be a play if Florida had Del Rio.
- Penn State is legit. This isn’t some Colorado senior quarterback Cinderella story. It is a complete offensive reload. The Run-Pass- Option shit they run could very well be the future of football. They are on a 5-0 ATS run as a favorite since cracking Ohio State and shift to a field goal dog. Wisconsin is ranked third in conference total defense and Penn State is fourth. I think the gap between offenses (specifically passing) will prove to be more significant than the gap between defenses. Unless Wisconsin can force a few turnovers against the conference’s most efficient passing offense, Hornibrook won’t be able to get it done. Apologies to Big Cat and Charlie Wisco…Pick: Penn State +3 (Mortal)
…And now back to you’re regularly scheduled programming
- Colorado/Washington Over 60- FOX
- I’ve thought Colorado can score ever since I saw them kill Colorado State Week 1 so that has been embedded in my brain for months. Also, Friday night at 9pm couldn’t be a more perfect time to enjoy some action while pre-gaming.
- Temple/Navy Over 64.5- ABC
- USF, Temple, Memphis, Tulsa, Navy, UCF, SMU… AAC is the bread and butter of overs. I would simply feel a little dirty not taking the over in the AAC championship game. Would be basically be like cheating on the wife.
- Oklahoma/Oklahoma State over 76-FOX
- This should be fun. I always look for Oklahoma overs and they were on a bye last week so I’ve missed Baker and the Boys. 76 ain’t too shabby. Just about 20 points a quarter, no problemo. Should be fun.
- Rams/Patriots Over 46
- I live and die by the logic of flying across country. Don’t know why. Therefore Rams D is gonna be tired so I’d say the Pats can score at least 30. Lock that in.
- Redskins/Cardinals Over 50.5
- Have to dabble in a little 4 o’clock action and this is my dabbling. I don’t know how this game can’t go over, both teams just like to score. Kirk’s hot, David Johnson’s good for like 2 touchdowns. I’ll be hoping and praying for a shootout but in reality it will probably be like a 24-17 final. Yolo either way.
And that’s it for Week 1. Hope you guys enjoyed it. There’s obviously some kinks here which will be ironed out when we get a feel for the blog. I’ll leave you with my Under of the Week which is Under 55 in UL-Monroe/UL-Lafayette. Bet some overs, maybe have a cold one or 2 with it, and enjoy ‘em this weekend. Feel free to tweet me and the intern any questions you have @Mathguy500 and @glenny_balls. See ya next week.