CHAMPIONSHIP SATURDAY: Picks and Ideas For Today's Nine Breeders' Cup Championship Races - At The Post With Mut
Yeah. That will be the theme again later today.
Day 1 of the Breeders' Cup is in the books - if you bet all the favorites, you did pretty well.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Filly Turf
I think #9 Sun Goddess is one of the most likely winners of the weekend. You should always favor the Euro Turf shippers, and this one is highly regarded. #10 Amusingly is the most likely upsetter. Note that #1 Green Empress has run 2nd to Sun Goddess 3 times, and if it happens again, might be an okay exacta. Not a race I'll be betting much - #9 a SINGLE A, and I'll use the 1,10 as backups in the Pick 5.
Exacta 9-1
This was an okay play from Friday's blog. $10 for every $1 you bet on the 9-1 exacta. Small winning day for me, but we turn the page.
Go Go Greys Update
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As I have written the last couple of weeks, it looked like Mr. Popover would be the next Go Go Greys 2-year-old to debut. Not only is he set to make his first start next Wednesday at Churchill Downs, but he's the 7/2 second choice in an open race.
One of the best jockeys in the world, Jose Ortiz, gets the call.
"I had really high hopes, but he is very green," the owner (and my boss) texted in part when I asked about Mr. Popover's debut race. "Lots of ability but very immature. I think he's my best horse at this point, but that's not saying much."
On paper, he's been training well for this debut, which is Race 10 at 5:24 ET next Wednesday. You can watch and wager on DraftKings Racing, as always.
Naughty Nancy got back to the track on Friday at Belmont.
Fellow 2-year-old White Mariposa made her first official trip to the track at Fair Hill.
There could be more workouts on Saturday, but we'll catch up on those next week. It is Breeders' Cup Saturday, after all.
DraftKings Racing RaceDay
Big day ahead at Keeneland and a big day on DraftKings Racing 🏇🏻🏇🏻🏇🏻
DraftKings Racing has Bet Back Bonus for us on Breeders' Cup Races 7,8,9,10, and 11. Make sure you OPT IN at the REWARDS/OFFERS TAB at DraftKings Racing - see all the details there.
AND THERE IT IS! KING OF THE TRACK IS BACK FOR THE BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC!
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With that, let's start out by handicapping Race 12 - The Breeders' Cup Classic
#1 T O Password - TOSS
#2 Sovereignty - Elio likes him. Not for me. Don't love the training vibes coming in and needs a pace. Not sure he gets it today, and at 2-1 or maybe 9/5? No thanks. He wins, I lose.
#3 Golden Tempo - Has cost me thousands of dollars by betting against him this year. My fault - not the horses'. Can hit the board but won't be betting to win today.
#4 The Puma - I think he's sitting on a big race. Huge move into the turn last time at Parx. Training well since. Smart, veteran jockey. Third-place finisher at Parx came back and ran fast at Keeneland last Saturday. At 7-1 or so, I'll be betting. And using for sure in the late Pick 5 as an 'A' with….
#5 Forever Young - The most likely winner in my opinion. Five for nine at the distance. Has taken on all challengers. Benefits more than the #2 from the scratch of #6 Magnitude. Not going to be a huge price, but the class of the field and the horse to beat. Pick 5 'A."
#7 Knightsbridge - I guess he's supposed to wire here? The jockey has never ridden before - I love Saez, but this is a tough spot. Not for me in the top spot. Pick 5 backup.
#8 Napoleon Solo - Love this guy. But from this spot, with Knightsbridge to his inside, he's going to have to run huge. I just can't back him on the win end or as an 'A.' But he's fast and has a huge heart - can see him hitting the board at a fair price today. Pick 5 Backup.
I think Knightsbridge goes to the front, flanked by Solo. Forever Young in third and the Puma in 4th early.
I see Forever Young and The Puma battling in the lane and for the win. I think it's one of those two.
The Puma will be a much better price, and for that reason, he's my King Of The Track pick. I think it's him or Forever Young, who I favor at a much shorter price. If you want a safer play, that's my chalk pick - and the more likely winner Saturday.
5-4-7-2 in the Classic
KING OF THE TRACK: #4 THE PUMA
Exacta Box 4-5
Now, as for the rest of the Breeders' Cup races on Saturday - all of which I'm betting on DraftKings Racing
Race 4 (1:10 ET)
Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
A lot of pace here on paper and a big favorite expected in #2 Ways and Means. I won't waste a lot of your time - I think she's probably better than these and a likely winner. But the horse I'm going to bet is #12 Kilwin. She got bet down to 7/2 last time and came up short against Ways. Now she gets a faster pace to run at, and if the favorite gets caught up going too fast early, she can run them down and a price. At a higher price, #6 Majestic Oops can hit the board and help the trifecta.
WIN/PLACE #12 KILWIN
EXACTA BOX 2-4-6
Race 5 (1:48 ET)
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
I'm so bad at these turf sprints. Truly, roulette on horseback. Feels like everyone likes the favorite #3 Bacio - but isn't there a ton of speed in this race, too? The replays show #7 Comanche Brave as a good closer from Europe, and he looks okay. I've always liked #10 Cy Fair - he's never been off the board at this distance in five starts. #11 Joe Shiesty could win this with the right trip at 10-1 or so. Even the defending champ, #2 Shisospicy, who has raced just once since winning this at Del Mar in 2025, if she's ready she can win.
Very tough race. Cy Fair is usually favored, but today we're gonna get a price.
WIN/PLACE # 10 CY FAIR
Exacta box 2,7,10,11
Race 6 (2:26 ET)
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
I'll make my biggest win bet of the weekend on #7 Bracket Buster at 3-1 or better. His race two back was awesome. Last time at Parx, he was just a little too far back but flying late. He trains here at Keeneland. He can sit just off the speed or go. Hope #1 Further Ado takes all the money - and he could win; he's talented and loves Keeneland - but he is not invincible. For a price, #9 Forged Steel is too talented to be 15-1 on the ML. And #10 Owen Almighty might get lost in the betting. But I'm focused on my top pick of the day
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WIN #7 Bracket Buster
Race 7 (3:04 ET)
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf
The European runners are just better on turf. Much better in many cases. The market says either #12 Blue Bolt or #11 Precise wins this race, and I mostly agree. Would use both as A's in any multi-race bets and just move on. BUT…if there is going to be an upset, #1 Gimme a Nother could pull it off at a price. Has won four in a row and the trainer has always liked this runner. Save ground and come running in the lane. Will use as a third A and make a win/place bet.
WIN/PLACE #1 GIMME A NOTHER
Exacta 11-1
Exacta 12-1
Race 8 (3:42 ET)
Breeders' Cup Sprint
Maybe the key race of the day. Because #13 Englishman is a MONSTER. If he drew a better post, he'd be a single for most people. I think a lot of sharp people will either single to start the Pick 5 or just toss this guy and say he's against the pace and wide post sucks. I have another single in the sequence, so I won't do that. But I think at a better price, I'll be betteing #11 T O Elvis. Confirmed closer in a race with a ton of speed, he's pointed to this race since his win at CD on Derby Day. 3-1 would be fair. A couple of prices I like - #12 Stradale can sit off the pace and make one run - the horse he beat at Parx came back to win. Prat gets off #7 Built to ride that one. Built can hit the board at a price. Even #9 Nakatomi looks like a trifecta player.
WIN #11 T O Elvis
Race 9 (4:20 ET)
Breeders' Cup Mile
Saturday morning here, 6:59 AM, and #8 Notable Speech is under even-money in the betting over in Europe. Like we tabbed Sun Goddess as the most likely winner on the card Friday, we'll do it here with this defending BC Mile winner. In solid form and just…better. #12 True Love, #9 Rhetorical, #2 Lake Forest are my exacta players. I love #1 Deterministic and always root for jockey Kendrick Carmouche, but I can't see him turning the tables today.
EXACTA 8 W/ 1,2,9,12
Race 10 (4:58 ET)
Breeders' Cup Distaff
Two-horse race here, the way I see it. Either #2 Nitrogen wires this group. Or #4 Fully Subscribed runs her down in the lane. Will both be short prices. #6 Measure is the longshot to play in exacta and trifectas. More distance is good for her and won't be a surprise when she's still running hard in the lane.
Race 11 (5:36 ET)
Breeders' Cup Turf
Again, Team USA is a notch below the Euro runners. You could have made a ton of money just boxing all the Euros in the exacta in this race over the years. In this edition, #12 Diamond Necklace, #13 Bay City Roller, #10 Tiffany, #9 Johanna Walsh, and #2 Benvenuto Cellini are all MAJOR contenders. Even #1 Ethical Diamond, who won this last year at 27-1.
The one I want to bet on to win is #10, Tiffany. This mare runs her race every time - 16 for 19 in the money and 10 for 10 at the distance. Came over and took down the Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs last month. In a race with not a ton of pace on paper, with the scratch of Test Score, she should be forward and have every shot to win this at 10-1 or so.
But I'll be using most of the Euro runners in the late multi-race bets, hoping to get alive to Forever Young and The Puma.
WIN/PLACE #10 TIFFANY
I'll be live on X.com before every BC race this afternoon. Jump in and let me know who you like. Just have to be lucky once or twice to cash today!
Some huge races ahead of us today. Good luck if you're playing, and safe trips for all.
