One Of The Best Horse Racing Weekends Of The Year Is Here - Breeders' Cup Friday Picks And Ideas - At The Post With Mut
Here we go!
Like, if you're a horseplayer and you're not excited for the next few days, I don't know what to tell you.
It's Breeders' Cup Friday!
We're fast and firm today at Keeneland. And we have some big races ahead of us the next two days.
A couple of housekeeping notes before we jump into some picks and analysis for the five Breeders' Cup races Friday afternoon at Keeneland.
🏇🏻 I will not be at the track today or tomorrow. I will be reporting live from my HorseracingHQ (my basement) both Friday and Saturday. Dave and Elio will be playing in the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge from the Florida Keys, and I'll be tracking the BCBC leaderboard, hoping to see them both on it. I didn't qualify, and I don't have the $10k to enter. But maybe next year.
🏇🏻 I am saving most of my bankroll (80%) for the nine Breeders' Cup races on Saturday. These five races today are all for 2-year-olds. The favorites look good in three of the five, and one of the races is a complete crapshoot. I don't see these as two equal days, and I'll be much more locked in tomorrow.
🏇🏻 Speaking of Saturday, my plan is to live on X.com about 20 minutes before each Breeders' Cup race. My own pre-race, HorseracingHQ (basement) breakdown before all nine BC races on Saturday. Follow along here.
🏇🏻 Remember if you're watching on TV or streaming, THERE IS GOING TO BE A DELAY. Get your bets in early and don't wait till 0 MTP on TV. I watch on DK Racing as it's the most 'live' feed, and I don't want to get shut out on Breeders' Cup Day.
🏇🏻 You'll see my picks for each BC race right inside DK Racing on the DraftKings App.
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Some great promos there this weekend, including Bet Back Bonuses on Races 3, 4, and 5 at Keeneland. Plus a Keeneland Track Bet Bonus.
Make sure you OPT IN at the REWARDS/OFFERS tab on DK Racing and DK Horse and check out the full promo details there.
Note the four Special Daily Doubles that will cover a race Friday & Saturday. Love these.
- Friday R7: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies with Saturday R10: Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff
- Friday R9: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with Saturday R12: Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic
- Friday R10: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf with Saturday R11: Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf
- Saturday R10: Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff to Saturday R12: Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic
Now some picks…as always, feel free to TAIL OR TRASH.
KEENELAND RACE 3
WIN #8 ROSCOE GOOSE
KEENELAND RACE 4
WIN #2 LINCOLN'S LAW
KEENELAND RACE 5
WIN #2 KINGSIDE
As for the five Breeders' Cup Races…
Race 6 (2:55 ET)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint
This race completely changed when #13 Ruiva drew in this morning. Now there are three speeds (13, 3, 10) that will all be battling into the far turn. Of those three, #13 Ruiva is my favorite to hang around until the end. But with this new pace scenario, I want to bet #5 Mussab. He just won at 3x straight at 5 furlongs and comes into this in solid form. He's getting bet overseas in the English shops, and he should be a very fair price in here off a 15-1 ML. Others I'd use: #1 Moonrise, #4 Brickyard Belle (#13 getting in is good for her), #8 Force Noir, #9 Final Objective, and #11 Hell of a Spin. Will be spreading deep here to start the late Pick 5
WIN/PLACE #5 MUSSAB
Exacta Box 4-5-9
Race 7 (3:35 ET)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Filly
On paper, there is a ton of speed in here. I went looking for a horse that could come from off the pace, and I think I found it in #2 Domanin Expansion. She was visually awesome in the Oak Leaf last time and has shown an ability to close in both her starts. She has no-name connections, and because of that, we should get close to that 6-1 ML (Update - a lot of sharp people like here and she's going to get bet here). #10 Emphatic is undefeated and is training well for this. Horse to beat but a short price. The other closer I wanted to use is #6 Revenge of the Sis. George Weaver debuted this horse in a stakes race (against Emphatic) and, as a full sister to Dorth Vader, should be better as the races go longer.
WIN/PLACE #2 Domain Expansion.
Exacta Box 2,6,10
Race 8 (4:15 ET)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Filly Turf
I think #9 Sun Goddess is one of the most likely winners of the weekend. You should always favor the Euro Turf shippers, and this one is highly regarded. #10 Amusingly is the most likely upsetter. Note that #1 Green Empress has run 2nd to Sun Goddess 3 times, and if it happens again, might be an okay exacta. Not a race I'll be betting much - #9 a SINGLE A, and I'll use the 1,10 as backups in the Pick 5.
Exacta 9-1
Race 9 (4:55 ET)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile
First off, it sucks that U.S.S. Valor is not here. I have no clue why the connections would pass up this race. Anyway, #5 Hughes (named for NHL/Team USA Star Jack Hughes) is clearly the horse to beat. Two scratches make this a field of just 6, and if he runs his last race, he's a winner. The horse I'll probably bet and for sure us as the other 'A' in the Pick 5 is #7 Coach Pope. He was the speed on a track that favored closers last time. And his connections have not let him really loose in his works, suggesting he's sitting on a big race. Could take them a long way today and maybe pull the small upset.
WIN (3-1 or better) #7 Coach Pope
Race 10 (5:35 ET)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
In a perfect world, I'm alive to a bunch of these in the Pick 4 or Pick 5. That would include the top three Euros (at least in the betting market): #10 Folsom Blues, #14 Great Barrier Reef, and #4 Haffner. All three have run fast enough to win this race and will take plenty of money.
Team USA's best hope is Al Gold's #5 How's Al Today. My issue with this guy is that the Kentucky Downs track is pretty funky, and I have no clue if it will carry over here to Keeneland. The horse he beat last time is better on dirt than turf, so I have some class questions, too.
The other Euro I want to have - and bet - is #2 Avec Toi. I don't know what happened last time (maybe a little wide), but in all his previous starts, he went right to the front. He has good speed and gets a jockey in Flavien Prat who knows how to rate a speed horse on the front end. Plus, he gets blinkers here. I'm gonna bet him to wire this field at a square price
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(With #14 scratched, also using #13 Agate and #3 Florida Bay in the Late Pick 5 Plays)
WIN/PLACE #2 Avec Toi
Hopefully a big couple of days ahead. Good luck if you're playing today, and safe trips for all.
