We're Looking To Recover From A Rough Gambling Day
RECORD
53-78-2 (+2.6 units)
We were due for a setback, and that's exactly what we experienced yesterday. The Astros got completely shut down by a Seattle Mariners team that continues to play some great ball. Eddie Rosario had a nice game, but failed to go deep against the San Francisco Giants, and Tony Gonsolin was god fucking awful against the Miami Marlins. I may have a blog coming out later about that. So we really took it on the chin. I make no excuses. It was a very rough day for yours truly. But the one advantage of hitting with several home run props is that we've built up a nice little cushion for ourselves. We have not had many 0-3 days recently, and when we have, we've bounced back with some pretty good efforts. I hope that continues. Let's take a look at today's picks.
Yankees -1.5 (+125) against the Red Sox
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The New York Yankees stink this year. They aren't just a bad Yankees team. They are not a very good ball club at all. I think I said a week ago that I had them on my shit list. I bet on them to win with Gerrit Cole on the mound last week, and they blew a six-run lead. I feel like I'm going back to the wheel one too many times, but I like the value here with Cole on the mound. It's very bizarre. If you had told me before the season that Gerrit Cole would be the leader in the clubhouse to win the American League Cy Young, but the Yankees would be a last place ball club, I would not have believed you. But, alas, that's where they find themselves. Cole has been the man this season. He's been one of the only guys on the Yankees that's been able to stay healthy and consistent all season. Sadly, it hasn't meant much because the offense has trouble backing him up most of the time. Still, from a gambling standpoint, to get Cole at plus money on the run line is an opportunity I'm going to take.
Rangers -1.5 (+145) against the Brewers
The Rangers' pitching fell apart last night against Milwaukee. You rarely see the Brewers' offense break out like that. One thing that Texas has avoided doing pretty much all season is that they rarely ever go into slums. They tend to bounce back pretty quickly when they suffer a bad loss. I don't know if there's been a pitcher in baseball who's had a more underrated campaign than Dane Dunning. The peripherals aren't amazing, and his strikeout rate is below average, but he's been a godsend for that team all season. He's also been great in August, posting a 2.18 ERA and three starts. And while I just brought up the strikeout rate being low, one thing that excites me is that he started missing way more bats since the calendar turned August. He's had double-digit strikeout performances in two of his three outings this month. Even if he doesn't pitch great, I am always inclined to believe that the Texas Rangers' explosive offense will back him up. I think that's what will happen today.
Jose Altuve to homer (+600) against the Mariners
I stayed away from betting on the Astros in this game. Framber Valdez has not looked like himself over the last month outside of the no-hitter, and I really like the way that the Mariners have been playing lately. With that said, I feel like Altuve is due for a big game. Logan Gilbert is an excellent pitcher, but his numbers against Altuve are not good. In 21 plate appearances, Altuve has eight hits, including a home run. Altuve is one of those players who is inevitable for me. I'm always inclined to believe that he has a big stretch coming up right around the corner. He's been good when he's played for Houston this year. I need them to be great today and go deep against the Mariners. +600 is pretty damn good value for a player of Altuve's caliber.
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