26-48-2 (-7.7 units)
Goddamn, these home run props continue to save my ass. We had a 2-1 day yesterday. The Los Angeles Angels continue to be what they've been for the last decade, which is an absolute fucking joke. Alek Manoak shut their asses down yesterday in a loss at Rogers Centre. The Astros comfortably covered the run line against the Rays in an absolute beatdown. That was one of those games where I legitimately think a team should be allowed to wave the white flag at least once a season. But most of our money was made because Ian Happ took Adam Wainwright deep once again. In the future, I think it will be a good idea to bet someone on the opposing team to go deep against Adam Wainwright for the remainder of the season. That dude is toast. So we were up 5.5 units yesterday, but as a whole, we're up over seven units this week. The sample size is building a little bit. We've had a few hot days but need to stay more consistent. Let's see if we can get there with a good day today. Let's take a look at the picks.
Cubs ML (+110) against the Cardinals
This one came up right away. I'm stunned that the Cubs, a team that's won eight games in a row going up against an awful Cardinals squad, are underdogs at plus money today. You also have Steven Matz on the mound for St. Louis, Who has been terrible since being acquired by the Cardinals. While his numbers have been better this season, the Cardinals don't win when he starts. St. Louis is a stunning 5-17 in games that Steven Matz has started in 2023. This is a very weird point for the Cubs. They keep winning games, but as late as a week ago, they were a team that everyone projected would be sellers. Could this win streak be the worst thing ever to their future? Time will tell, but I got to ride the hot hand now. ￼
Reds ML (+150) against the Dodgers
Again, the value here is too good to pass up. Graham Ashcraft is going for the Cincinnati Reds. He’s a young pitcher, and his numbers on the season are pretty ugly. But he’s been excellent lately, posting a 2.10 ERA over his last five starts. It will be a tall order for him going against that Dodgers lineup today, but it should help the Reds that they’re facing a pitcher in Michael Grove, who’s been even worse than Ashcraft has the season. The Dodgers need another starter because they will be in trouble if this guy is in the five-man. Grove is only 26 years old but has a 6.19 ERA this year. I could see this ballgame turning into a slugfest. I considered going with the over, but I liked the value way more with the Reds.
Christian Vasquez to homer (+750) against the Royals
This is one of those picks where I worry about getting too cute. I think the Twins will come out pissed today. At least, they sure as hell should be. They've lost two in a row to begin this series to the terrible Royals, and they're facing Ryan Yarborough. I don't know how Ryan Yarborough is in Major League Baseball. I think he has the worst stuff of any pitcher in the sport, and he'll be going up against today in Christian Vázquez, who will likely be behind the dish for the twins. Vazquez is not known for his bat, but he has tremendous power against Yarborough. In 28 career plate appearances, he's recorded 11 hits, including three home runs. Vasquez's numbers are not good this year from an offensive standpoint, which is why this is a heat-check pack. If he goes deep today, we are officially hot as a pistol. ￼￼