Will Levis Is Eerily Similar To Justin Herbert As A Prospect, But Also Gives Off Big Josh Rosen Energy
Jay Biggerstaff. Getty Images.There have been a lot of pro player comparisons for Kentucky quarterback Will Levis as he prepares to enter the 2023 NFL Draft, but one I haven't seen anywhere else really stuck out to me.
Been teasing this blog for a while and have been building a case. I really think Will Levis has a lot in common with Justin Herbert when he was coming out of Oregon back in 2020. Then you see the second part of this headline and you want to run for the hills if your team drafts Levis, because yeah, there's a little bit of Josh Rosen flavor in there as well.
Among the other pros I've seen compared to Levis from various sources: Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, Carson Wentz, Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford, and even Big Ben and Jake Locker. All over the map. It's never going to be a perfect one-to-one.
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Still, I'd like to dive into why, for me, Levis is most like Herbert for a rich variety of reasons. So let's dive in, shall we?
Super smart in the classroom: CHECK
It's pretty wild to look back at Herbert's bio blurb from Oregon. The first several bullet points you see under his list of accomplishments are related to academics. We're talking about a top-five-ish quarterback in the NFL right now. That's nuts that Herbert excelled to that degree in school with all the pressure and expectations football brought on him.
Even before Levis transferred to Kentucky, he earned the highest GPA on Penn State's team as a redshirt freshman in 2019, was a two-time All-Big Ten academic selection, and made the SEC academic honor roll in each of his two seasons with the Wildcats. Levis actually graduated from Penn State's business school in only three years with a finance degree.
This is one of the main reasons I'm a little reticent to doubt Levis. Perhaps there's something to the fact that he was at his best in a pro-style offense the season before. If I'm going to excuse the adverse circumstances Anthony Richardson dealt with at Florida last season, I can't ignore how bad the situation was around Levis in 2022.
Just about everyone overthought Herbert, and he wound up being the third QB selected in his class. The Chargers gladly scooped him up. The rest is history in the making. Are we all galaxy braining ourselves and not holding Levis in high-enough esteem? I really don't know. His "good" is really, really good.
Freaky physical tools with dual-threat ability: CHECK
Now here's an interesting bit. I'm going to post some blurbs and insider information and you tell me if it's in reference to Herbert or Levis. It's like a blind resume exercise. Ready?
Blurb No. 1:
…Has the arm to beat coverages on all three levels, but inadequate placement and accuracy have created a lot of uncatchable throws. He’s a capable runner outside the pocket but needs to improve his feel for pressure and his consistency when throwing on the move.
Blurb No. 2:
"He's confident attacking downfield, but touch throws evade him and may have created tentativeness with certain short and intermediate throws. Ball placement requires additional emphasis, but upgrading to NFL skill talent could help him bloom. [REDACTED] has a high ceiling … but he doesn't have as many 'wow' plays as expected for someone with his traits, experience and potential."
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Blurb No. 3:
"If the draft were based on pure potential alone, he would probably go No. 1 overall.
"He has exceptional arm talent with a lightning-quick release, and his [REDACTED] frame perfectly fits the NFL QB mold. He can make any throw on the football field, and there are times when he makes it look easy.
"[…] The talent is there. The physical tools are there. The athleticism is there. He just needs to put it all together."
Blurb No. 4:
"He could potentially be one of the biggest mistakes of the draft."
OK time to reveal the answers.
The first blurb is from Levis' official NFL Dot Com draft profile. That second one is from Herbert's draft profile. I pulled that third excerpt from PFF's draft profile on Levis, which dropped in mid-January.
Finally, ladies and gentlemen, Emmanuel Acho's take on Herbert from back in 2020. The context of it is so fascinating in retrospect. I'm not trying to purely dunk on Acho even though I think he's a first-team All-Pro weirdo. So many people were wrong about Herbert and/or doubted he'd be an elite QB, myself included.
You could literally copy and paste the text from these scouting reports and/or critiques of Levis and Herbert into each other's and nothing would look out of place whatsoever. The similarities are striking.
Multi-year starter in college with meh production: CHECK
As important as it is for QBs to learn quickly, and as brilliant as Herbert and Levis evidently are in the classroom, their aptitude for learning didn't always translate so well to the gridiron. It was as puzzling for Herbert as it was for Levis, although at least in the latter's case, you could chalk it up to some injuries from this past season and the loss of key players in his supporting cast.
Nevertheless, if you look at the numbers, the completion percentage, yards per attempt and even passer rating are pretty close. That latter number is a surprise considering Herbert's far superior TD-INT ratio.
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…And therein lies one distinct difference between Herbert and Levis. The latter has a reputation as a far more fiery competitor and wasn't as risk-averse. You can tell by his chiseled physique that Levis is one of those guys who refuses to be outworked. You also don't see much coming out of Kentucky about him being a bad teammate, either. The same was true for Herbert. His coach Mario Cristobal said as much.
Whereas Herbert is more quiet and reserved, though, Levis is simply outwardly strange. Thus, there are still lingering concerns about how Levis' unusual personality will play in NFL locker rooms. You heard similar shit about Herbert. It sounds silly now. I promise you. It was a real thing.
Leadership/personality question marks: CHECK
This is always the hardest one to pin down. Those of us who, you know, don't work in an NFL scouting department can only go off of so much information. You get it from insiders who report on the stuff. Even then, when Schefter or Rapaport get fed scoops, it can be a damn smokescreen by personnel guys to throw opposing teams off the scent of a prospect they really love.
Check out this chunk from former Bleacher Report and current ESPN draft guru Matt Miller on Herbert in 2018:
"'Traits' is a buzzword that can get scouts in trouble. Said one critic of Herbert, "Tell me why he's not another [Blake] Bortles? Big guy, good athlete, but turns the ball over and isn't particularly accurate."
"There are also those scouts, who did not want to be named, who say Herbert is 'soft' or 'immature' or 'quirky, not really a leader of men.' Those opinions, if shared by the general managers who will evaluate Herbert not only on the field but also off of it, are the type that can torpedo a draft stock."
That was prior to Herbert's final season at Oregon. You wouldn't catch me dead trying to label Will Levis "soft". That said, the immaturity, the turnovers, the "quirky" and dubious leadership qualities? All those demerits capture a lot of the negative noise surrounding Levis.
No prospect is going to be perfect. I just wonder if the whole putting mayo in the coffee, eating the peel of a banana and taking shirtless selfies is all a "LOOK AT ME" act being put on by Levis for reasons unknown.
The Josh Rosen of it all
Granted, what Levis said prior to the Combine wasn't nearly as extreme as the clip below of "Chosen Rosen". I still feel like I'm getting a lot of the similar quirky, oddball, Rosen-esque stuff from Levis than any other QB prospect of the last 10-plus years by FAR.
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Rosen always came across as one of those pests who needed to know the "why" to everything football scheme to an annoying and redundant degree. I could see how Levis has some of that same energy, and how he could similarly rub teammates the wrong way.
Don't know if Chad Forbes is full of shit or not. In any event, this has been kicking around and blowing up Draft Twitter for a while now.
Think about the other QBs who came into the draft with such a (we'll say "allegedly") cocksure demeanor in recent memory. Some who come to mind are, obviously, Rosen, Baker Mayfield, Zach Wilson, Kyler Murray, Jameis Winston, Johnny Manziel…the last guy who I can think of who was seemingly so much of a "ME" guy and had raging success is Cam Newton.
And look…there's a difference between having that outward swagger but still being grounded and being a good teammate and kind of alienating those around you. Look at all the guys I listed. Once they got to the NFL, whatever ringing endorsements they had from college about being good teammates, the antics wore off pretty fast at the professional level.
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You can also be extremely self-assured and confident without pushing into repulsive, deplorable and or/polarizing territory. The only dude I've seen pull that off and still be almost universally liked is Joe Burrow. He's just built different.
What to expect from Will Levis in the NFL
To me, Levis is far more of a boom-or-bust wild card than Anthony Richardson, who he's often lumped in with in a tier below Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud. I have Richardson as the 2023 draft's No. 2 overall player, followed by Young (6th), Stroud (8th) and Levis (22nd). So they all have first-round grades to varying degrees.
Richardson's floor feels a lot higher than Levis' because of his legitimately elite rushing ability. I also like his pocket presence more. Even with Levis' belief in his own arm strength aside, I feel like Richardson is a more effortless, natural and more powerful thrower.
Given his aforementioned experience in a pro-style offense, it'd be intriguing to see Levis go to a situation where there's already an established quarterback on a contending team. I've mocked him to the Vikings at 23rd overall to be the eventual successor to Kirk Cousins. Levis' offensive coordinator from Kentucky in 2021 was Liam Coen, who left to be the Rams' OC last year before returning to Lexington. Minnesota head coach Kevin O'Connell came from the Sean McVay tree. It's a perfect fit.
Also wouldn't hurt to have Justin Jefferson as your WR1.
It'll sound like a broken record in the midst of Draft SZN, but it's true. So much of Levis' success depends on where he lands. I don't think he can go to, say, the Texans at No. 2 overall and turn that whole organization around. I struggle to find a better fit for him than the Vikings, who can hopefully upgrade their defense and remain competitive in 2023 before handing the keys from Captain Kirk to Levis the following season.
Levis is a fringe first-round guy with tons of innate talent, a hyper-competitive mentality and plenty of intelligence to make the leap to the NFL. Maybe juuuuuust a little too much of a strange bird for me to feel comfortable pulling the trigger on him with a top-10 pick.
Twitter @MattFitz_gerald/TikTok