The Texans Are Reportedly Not A Lock To Take A QB With The No. 2 Pick, Which Could Throw The Draft For One Hell Of A Loop

With the understanding that this is the prime time for silly season and smokescreens galore leading up to the 2023 NFL Draft, I wouldn't put it past the Houston Texans to galaxy brain this and talk themselves out of drafting a quarterback.

It wasn't long ago I implored the Texans to put their collective nuts on the table, trade up from NO. 12 to the third pick, and go back-to-back with your new QB of the future and Will Anderson Jr. — or whomever you believe is the best defensive prospect in this draft.

It would appear Nick Caserio's nuts have shriveled to the size of raisins, which isn't a total surprise. He's the latest Patriots castoff trying to build his own spinoff New England operation, and let's just say it hasn't gone super well so far. 

Houston is on its third coach in three years, and Caserio might be misguidedly clinging to the first draft pick he ever made in charge of the Texans. That'd be QB Davis Mills.

Ryans has been hinting at drafting a new signal-caller all offseason long. Suddenly, the messaging is a little more muddled.

Might it have something to do with the fact that multiple reports are now linking Bryce Young to Carolina as the favorite to hear his name called first on draft night? Because after C.J. Stroud was a prohibitive favorite to go No. 1, the odds have shifted heavily in favor of the Alabama field general.

I went in hard on Young at +250 a couple weeks ago, when Stroud was as low as -400, or at least -300. It's already moved that much — and I'm sure it'll move again. Not celebrating Young to the Panthers. It's way too early.

But I can't help but think that, with all the buzz that Stroud was the initial favorite and the widely held assumption that Young would fall to Houston, perhaps the change has the Texans second-guessing themselves. Stroud is represented by the same agent who counts Deshaun Watson as a client, so there's a bit of complicated history there between Stroud's rep and Houston's organization.

I figured that wouldn't really matter, but in light of Schefter's highly credible inside information, it's hard not to connect the dots there. Like it might matter a little. 

Perhaps it instead has something to do with this curious anecdote about Stroud being "not an easy guy to coach" from ESPN analyst and former NFL GM Mike Tannenbaum LOL Lombardi, retroactive edit here. My apologies.

So if you operate under the vague assumption that a Stroud-Texans marriage will be shaky from the beginning, then you get to the likes of Anthony Richardson and Will Levis as the next two top prospects. Both of them have physical tools for days. However, Richardson has little game experience, while Levis is coming off a rough 2022 campaign that may trigger a steep draft day slide.

Here's another theory: What if Carolina leaked its love for Young, but secretly, they prefer Stroud? Then you get the Texans to trade up one spot just so Bryce is their guy. The Panthers get an extra pick or two and Stroud, or whomever. LOL. That'd be such a baller, 4D chess move.

OR! Houston trades out of No. 2, and some unforeseen player pops up there and snags a QB. They'd never do business with AFC South rivals Indy or Tennessee, so who would that leave? Maybe the Seahawks or Lions go for it since they have an extra first-rounder apiece this year.

Like I said. All the scenarios. It's supposed to be the Cardinals who shake things up with a prospective trade out of the No. 3 overall pick. If it's Houston who moves out a spot before them, the implications are wild to contemplate.

How about another alternative? What if the Texans emerge as the shocking suitor for Lamar Jackson, and offers up their top three picks, plus, say, a first-rounder in 2024 for Lamar? Then the Ravens have three first-rounders to revamp their whole outlook after the ugly end to Lamar's tenure.

A Texans-Ravens trade wouldn't seem so outlandish if Baltimore hadn't just signed Odell Beckham Jr. for a bunch of money and if Lamar wasn't on FaceTime or whatever video chat celebrating the move with OBJ. Nevertheless, the possibility should be tantalizing for Houston.

Bottom line is, if you're Caserio, you should take a swing on SOMEONE. Don't roll with Davis Fucking Mills, man. Please. If Caserio balks and doesn't at least try to upgrade, the Texans are doomed, they'll pick high again in 2024 and the GM will probably be out of a job. That is, unless Caserio could convince ownership of a long-term vision to tank for Caleb Williams and try to fix things that way. Talk about putting your nuts on the table. Audacious strategery to say the least.

I'll laugh forever if the Texans pass on a QB, Indy snags its long-awaited Andrew Luck successor at No. 3 or 4, and the Titans find a way to catapult up and hit on their next main man to replace Ryan Tannehill. Meanwhile, Houston tanks, another front office comes in who didn't hire the latest head coach, and the cycle of dysfunction whirls around once again.

Twitter @MattFitz_gerald/TikTok