This Stat Is Why Wisconsin Isn't A Threat To Win The College Football Playoff

I tweeted this graphic out yesterday with a simple statement:

I got a little bit of flack for the tweet. I’m getting flack across the board in a post Akron -9 world (I deserve it), but I wanted to explain myself in more than 280 characters for my Wisconsin tweet.

I don’t hate Wisconsin at all. They are a great team this year. However, they won’t be good enough. Why? Because they just don’t have the talent.

According to 247Sports Team Talent Composite ratings (which rates current rosters based upon their recruiting/transfer ratings), Wisconsin has the 33rd most talented team in the country. I do something very similar for my #StackCashWithJackMac system (52-36, +11.98 units on the year) and have a similar finding. Based upon starters, Wisco ranks 29th in the country in pure talent.

Now, you may be thinking “wait, recruiting means nothing!” I am very happy to inform you that this isn’t the case, especially at the top of the country. Due to the work from Bud Elliot, we know that teams who win the national championship are teams with more 4 & 5-star scholarship players than not. No team has won the national championship with less than 50% 4 & 5-stars since modern recruiting rankings came into existence around 2000.

This year, Wisconsin comes nowhere close to that 50% mark. Teams that do: Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Florida State, Clemson, USC, Penn State, Michigan, Texas, Oklahoma, Auburn, Washington, Notre Dame, Florida, and Miami (FL). Based on history, those are the teams that are in the national title race.

Recruiting rankings don’t tell all. Obviously recruiting rankings didn’t help Michigan when they lost 35-14 to Wisco earlier this season. However, Wisconsin will have to beat 4-more of these blue-chip teams (Ohio State, Penn State (or Ohio State twice), 2 more in CFP). That’s going to be tough.

My point is: talent matters in college football. A lot. I’d say Wisconsin’s performance on the field goes to show how great of a culture their program has and how good of a coach Paul Chryst.