Barstool Hoops Mailbag: Season Preview, Non-Scandal Edition
Your Friday basketball mailbag is here. I’ve been doing these for the last 2 years and decided to set on just one day a week so people know when to expect it. Again, this will cover all basketball as we’re starting to see the growth of the sport and it turning into a year-round event. With college basketball starting practice today, we’ll be doing these every Friday going forward. You can submit all questions on Twitter @barstoolreags. Let’s get into the questions for this week.
I feel like Indiana is an NIT team. They aren’t going to be nearly as bad as some people are making them out to be, but it’s going to take Archie a year or two to fully take control of the program and get the guys in that he wants. The key to Archie’s teams is getting guys to buy into his system and not try and do too much. That’s why Dayton was successful under him. He recruited guys that fit a particular role within the team and all could defend the hell out of you. He doesn’t have that just yet at Indiana, although he still does have some nice talent left behind by Crean. Juwan Morgan is an intriguing player to watch due to his versatility. De’Ron Davis is a legit big that provides some interior scoring. Robert Johnson and Josh Newkirk can both score the ball, but I don’t trust them taking care of the ball. That was one of the major flaws in last year’s team. Indiana ranked 322nd in turnover percentage last year, something that simply can’t happen. But, if they can take care of the ball and Collin Hartman returns and can be the player he was two years ago, you at least have a solid five guys to compete. I’m all in on Archie as a coach and think he’ll absolutely turn Indiana back into a contender again, it’s just not happening this year.
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I’d go in order: ACC/Big East/Big 12. The ACC is by far the best league for me this year, even with all the stuff going on this week. They have the No. 1 team in the country in Duke. They have top-10 teams like Louisville and Miami (for now). They have the reigning national champs in UNC. They have Notre Dame (a top-25 team) and some fringe top-25 teams like Virginia Tech and Virginia. The Big East is the clear second option for me. I love their top-3 in Villanova, Seton Hall and Xavier as I have all as top-18 teams to start the season. The middle has gotten a long stronger as teams like Providence, Butler and Marquette will be NCAA Tournament teams. St. John’s should improve from last year and you’ll see 70% of the conference make the NCAA Tournament.
This is a great question with everything going on and something that I’ve discussed with some college friends in terms of who is the guy you wish you saw in a Kentucky uniform. The biggest name that didn’t go to Kentucky was Andrew Wiggins, however I don’t think that’s the right answer here. In terms of team fit, there are two names that most Kentucky fans would agree on. Luke Kennard and Xavier Henry. The main reason why is supplying extra shooting to the backcourt. Henry would have been part of Calipari’s first class, a team that lost to West Virginia in the Elite Eight because they couldn’t make an outside shot to save their lives. Henry would have filled that void instead of a Darnell Dodson. Then with Kennard you add him to a backcourt with Jamal Murray and then Malik Monk and it just opens up the lane for Tyler Ulis/De’Aaron Fox/Isaiah Briscoe. That immediately becomes a different looking team. I’d personally go with Kennard just because I think he’s a better player than Henry.
I’ve said it a lot now. I’m pretty confident in saying Louisville will not get the death penalty. The NCAA doesn’t want to give out the death penalty, especially to the most valuable program in college basketball when it comes to money. Throw in the fact they are also one of the six or seven biggest names, that adds even more to it. When you saw how Louisville reacted, by giving Tom Jurich the chance to fire Rick Pitino and then when he declined, they put both on administrative leave (effectively firing them) it was a move that will save them from the death penalty. I go back to the Kentucky scandal in the late 1980s. A similar move was made (firing Eddie Sutton and Cliff Hagan) and it resulted in heavy sanctions, but not the death penalty. That’s how it’s going to be for Louisville. As for the ACC? Absolutely not. First off, they don’t want to remove them just from basketball and have Louisville in for football. Also, there’s not a better choice out there when it comes to making the conference money. Louisville football draws in more money than Cincinnati and UConn and basketball obviously is bigger than both. They’ll stay in the ACC.
I understand why people are trying to make this comparison. Both saw limited action as a freshman with Noah playing 9 minutes per game and Gak playing five. However, Noah was a top-100 recruit and Gak was outside the top-200, so the talent level is a little different. I always try to avoid, can player X mimic what an NBA player did because, simply put, it’s really damn hard to do that. Can Gak make an improvement? Absolutely. He’s going to have to with John Egbunu out for a few months. When you look at the per-40 numbers for each guy during his first year Gak was the better rebounder and they were pretty similar in terms of shots per game. However, Noah was more balanced. He was a much better passer, moved better off the ball and was the better defender. So, I don’t think Gak turns into Noah 2.0, but he’s going to make a jump.
An outside chance? Sure. They return a good core from last year including guys like Shep Garner, Tony Carr, Lamar Stevens and Payton Banks. All four of those guys averaged over 10 a game last year and the Nittany Lions return just about everyone as they didn’t have a senior on the roster last year. They finished the season last year 15-18 and 6-12 in the Big 10. I think in order to get to the NCAA Tournament they need to improve by 6-7 games overall and at least 3 games in the Big 10. The nonconference is pretty weak with only 3 games against Power-5 schools and they are NC State, Pitt and then either Texas A&M or Oklahoma State. They need to win all three if they don’t play Texas A&M. I do think they continue to improve, but this feels like an NIT team and with the Roman Catholic guys being a year away – once they are juniors – from being in the NCAA Tournament.
I’m all in on Vermont this year. We’re going take the regulars out in terms of Gonzaga, St. Mary’s, etc and focus on true mid majors. I think Vermont has the capability to play with a lot of Power-6 schools and Trae Bell-Haynes is a guy that can play just about anywhere. He’s coming off a year where he was named America East Player of the Year where he put up 11 points and 4 assists a game. Throw in Anthony Lamb, Payton Henson and Ernie Duncan and you have a great core four. They are setting themselves up in the nonconference with games at Kentucky, Marquette, St. Bonaventure and Harvard for quality wins and will be the favorite in the America East. Not to mention John Becker is one of the best defensive coaches in the game and this is my favorite mid major this year.
This is tough after losing two of my favorites last year in Jawun Evans and Monte Morris. I’m going to go with the following (freshmen not included):
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G: Jevon Carter (West Virginia)
G: Jalen Brunson (Villanova)
F: Mike Daum (South Dakota State)
F: Miles Bridges (Michigan State)
C: Angel Delgado (Seton Hall)
I’m going to use the mock draft that the DraftExpress guys currently have as to the basis here. They don’t have Jalen Brunson getting drafted, which means that’s the right answer. I think Brunson has a legit shot to win NPOY this year with the fact Nova should win 30 games, he’ll be the best player on that team and we saw him be the best player for the majority of the Big East season last year for Villanova when Hart hit a cold streak. He’s a preseason All-American and with him being projected as a non-draft guy, that’s my answer.
I’m really high on Scruggs this year, however the coaching staff seems to prefer Marshall as the better freshman from what I’ve been hearing. Obviously, they play different spots, but in terms of what the lineup looks like that will go on these two. Xavier could go with Scruggs-Goodin-Macura-Bluiett-Kanter or Goodin-Macura-Bluiett-Marshall-Kanter (I’m assuming Kanter gets the spot here, but there’s obviously Jones/O’Mara/Gates involved). I think you see Xavier close with the small-ball lineup, where Bluiett is most effective. He has the size to play the four in college and can take advantage of some mismatches. That’s the lineup with better scoring and the ability to beat you.