The Red Sox Have Elected To Go With Clay Buchholz In Game 3 On Sunday
Welp. You wanna get nuts? Let’s get nuts. Clay Buchholz is your Game 3 starter in the American League Division Series against the Cleveland Indians on Sunday, weather permitting.
It’s supposed to be pretty shitty out, so maybe that game gets rained out, and you can bring Rick Porcello back for Game 3. We’ll see. But for now, it’s Clay motherfucking Buchholz. And you know what? I’m okay with that. I’m at peace with that. Not because I’m confident in Buchholz whatsoever, but rather because I can admit that he’s at least earned the opportunity to fail in this situation, and I knew that the Red Sox would inevitably give him the opportunity, because that’s all this organization has done over the last decade is give Buchholz opportunities. What he’s done with said opportunities from there is very much a mixed bag.
Here’s how it breaks down. Eduardo Rodriguez was recalled from Pawtucket on July 16. From that point until the end of the year, Rodriguez made 14 starts, Buchholz made 8. Rodriguez posted a 3.24 ERA, Buchholz’s was 2.98. Rodriguez’s WHIP was 1.13, Buchholz’s was 1.15. Buchholz’s strikeouts per nine innings was 6.75, Rodriguez’s was 9.15. It’s also important to note that they both averaged 5.2 innings per start over that span.
So, in my opinion, the Red Sox picked the wrong guy. Everything is pretty much a push. Buchholz has the slightly better ERA, but Rodriguez made six more starts than him. I’m sure if the starts were even that Buchholz’s ERA would inflate a little bit, making the gap essentially a push. The WHIPs are almost identical, and the innings per start are identical. But where Rodriguez blows Buchholz out of the water is his ability to strike guys out, which is undoubtedly a very important thing in the postseason. Power pitching beats power hitting more often than not. That’s why I would’ve gone with Rodriguez.
I also go back to that start in Toronto, right in the middle of an excellent string of starts for Buchholz, where he shit his pants out there on the mound. The crowd at the Rogers Centre is nuts, and Buchholz completely melted down, walked a ton of guys, walked in a run and then served up a grand slam — outing over. You have the benefit of knowing that Buchholz’s start will be at Fenway Park in Game 3, so that alleviates some doubt for me, but not all of it. In a short series, if Buchholz were to falter early on, you still have both Rodriguez and Drew Pomeranz who could take it from there.
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Just because I think they picked the wrong guy to be their Game 3 starter doesn’t mean I think Buchholz is going to go out there and get shelled. I actually don’t think that’s what’s going to happen at all. He could very well give you six innings with three earned runs, and that would be one thousand percent acceptable. I just think that Rodriguez gives you the better chance of getting results like that, especially in a high-pressure situation. Either way, like I said, I’m at peace with it because of how well he’s pitched lately, and also because of how short his leash is going to be if he’s not throwing the ball well. I have confidence in the guys behind him to at least keep the Red Sox in the game if he’s unable to.