The Toronto Blue Jays Are On A Path To Nowhere

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At this time just six days ago, we all thought Shohei Ohtani was about to become a Blue Jay. It would have instantly changed the fortunes of a team that hasn't been to a World Series in over 30 years. Instead, Ohtani became a Dodger and the Blue Jays remain this underachieving team that hasn't won a playoff game since 2016. 

The Blue Jays are not a bad team by any stretch. This isn't the Pirates or the Royals. They've averaged 91 wins a season over the past three seasons. But they still feel miles away from being a legitimate championship contender. Barring bringing in a major superstar like Ohtani, I'm not sure how you fix this quickly. They are so pot committed to a core that wound up just being good and not great.

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No one typifies the Blue Jays more than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He's someone who is full of so much potential but always leaves you disappointed. Maybe it's unfair to Vladdy Jr to expect so much from him but why does he keep getting worse with each year? He's only 24…shouldn't he be getting better? Where is the guy who led the league in home runs (48), On Base Percentage (.401) and Slugging Percentage (.601) in 2021? It's like going to a Tom Cruise movie and instead find out it really stars Aaron Eckhart. Eckhart is a fine actor but he's not Tom Fucking Cruise.

The entire core isn't a disaster. Guerrero Jr. is still an above average player. Bo Bichette is the best contact hitter in the American League now that Luis Arraez is on the Marlins. The starting rotation is made up of guys who are dependable and good but not great. Alek Manoah was supposed to be that ace but he self-destructed last year. He was 3rd in the AL Cy Young voting in 2022 going 16-7 with a 2.24 ERA in 2022. Maybe he had issues with the pitch clock, maybe he was too inside his own head or maybe he just got fat. Whatever it is, he was worthless last year going 3-9 with a 5.87 ERA.

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I don't see how the Blue Jays can fix this. They already are working from a tough spot this off-season losing Matt Chapman as a free agent. Chapman may not be the MVP candidate he was with Oakland but he's still a very good defensive player and had an over 4 WAR season last year. Whit Merrifield is a free agent too. He's an average piece but still a piece you need to replace.

So their lonely eyes turn to Cody Bellinger. They are fighting with the Cubs to sign him. But doesn't it feel like even if the Blue Jays did sign him, he'd regress to hitting .270/.330/.420 with 21 home runs?

The Blue Jays are still a decent team. Even without Chapman and Merrifield and with Manoah being the 2023 version of himself. That team can still win 83-87 games and get a wild card spot. I'm sure if they miss out on Bellinger, they'll get Chapman back. But what are we even talking about here? The Yankees just got Juan Soto. The Orioles have Jackson Holliday waiting to run a train on the rest of the American League. 

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The last time the Blue Jays even went to a World Series was 1993. That was a long time ago. I'm old as fuck and I was in Jr. High. Bill Clinton was a new, young president. Justin Bieber wasn't even born yet. The Tampa Bay Devil Rays and Arizona Diamondbacks didn't even exist.

The Blue Jays are no closer to an AL pennant than they were when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette made their MLB debuts. In fact, as both approach free agency in two seasons, one could argue they are even further away.