The Cubs Can Trade Cody Bellinger And Still Win The NL Central This Season
Michael Owens. Getty Images.I'm writing this blog as plain as simple as my brain allows.
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The Cubs should trade Cody Bellinger.
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He's the most valuable hitter available at this trade deadline and the Cubs would get a lot in return.
The sacrifice is minimal.
The last 2 months of Cody Bellinger, or about 200 plate appearances. Maybe 1.5 gross bWAR.
1st base is a problem right now, sure. But the computers say the problems are bigger with just a 0.8% odds to win a WS and 16% for the division.
Those aren't great. You don't plan long-term around odds like those. You don't hang your hat at night and feel good.
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So why can't the Cubs move Bellinger?
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The Angels surrendered their top 2 prospects for Lucas Giolito.
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Cody Bellinger could bring back more.
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He's also not even the long-term answer in CF. That would be Pete Crow-Armstrong at maybe $25-30 million for his first 6 full seasons.
Cody Bellinger will cost that much PER SEASON. Scott Boras is his agent. You think he's handing out hometown discounts? How much have YOU been drinking?
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Guys.
I want the Cubs to win very badly. More than you know. More than I can explain.
But I demand logic and reason in this relationship.
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Ian Happ, friendly extension.
Nico Hoerner, friendly extension.
Swanson & Suzuki, locked up and ready to roll.
Questions remain at corner infield positions and at the top of the rotation. Morel learning to play 3rd competently would go a long way but that's a much different blog.
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For now, I need you guys to think about the playoff odds and be realistic. Cody Bellinger fills a temporary void. It would be prudent to exchange him for multiple players that can be everyday regulars. If that drops 2023's World Series odds from zero point eight to zero point four, then so be it.
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I'm into multiverse content like many of you as well. But there's no alternate reality where the Cubs lose the division because they got rid of Cody Bellinger for a stable of prospects.
But we could sign him back because he's a Cub and GO CUBS!!!
Sure or we could give the money to Shohei? The money is there. The need is there.
That's where my brain goes next winter. Not towards "locking up" Cody Bellinger for $100M+ to play his secondary position.
BUT WHAT ABOUT NOW
I want the prospects. I want years worth of control of good young players. I want options and athleticism and competition and balance. I want a long-term window of success and homegrown guys driving the bus so we can spend a fuck ton of money in free agency like we're supposed to.
This is the path forward. This is what makes sense for the Chicago Cubs.
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They can still win the 2023 NL Central with outstanding play down the stretch. They still have a bunch of fine players, and nobody was even planning on this position in the 1st place. It was billed as a luxury - the Cubs being good enough to have a difficult decision about Bellinger's trade value.
He just hit .400 with 8 homers in July. The value is maxed out.
And refresher - there isn't a Mets fan alive that wouldn't walk back the Javy Baez trade THIS INSTANT.
Not a Cubs fan, either.
Hm.
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Anyways.
I know none of this changes how many of you feel. That's because they're feelings. They're very special and so are you for having them.
To others, you get the big picture and you're better for it.
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Ultimately we all want the same thing and that's another World Series Championship.
Please don't forget, that's the point.
PS - I have commissioned the odds team to get a Cubs NL Central boost in play as a sign of good faith. I'll put my money where my mouth is. They can do both.