College Football Betting Strategies (Week 12)

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Yet another Friday with my posting my hit College Football Betting Strategies blog. Thank you to everyone who has been along for the ride. There has been hypothetical money lost, and hypothetical money won (mostly lost). Say what you want about the College Football Betting Strategies blog, but you can never say I didn't spend 2 hours every Friday doing college football season writing it. 

Can one of these strategies finish the year in the black? It's not looking good, but it's not over yet. 

Here are the standings going into last week. The only strategy I'm making money on is the Low Team Total Overs, but I'm within striking distance on a couple others.

Low Team Total Overs: 22-18, $262 (+2.62u)
Giant Money Line Favorites: 35-5, -$56 (-0.56u)
Move The Line Overs: 27-12-1, -$424 (-4.24u)
1st Quarter Unders: 18-22, -$752 (-7.52u)
Long Shot Parlays: 1-39, -$1,426 (-14.26u)

Let's see if I narrowed (or widened) the gap with my picks last week

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Giant Money Line Favorites: 35-5, -$56 (-0.56u)

Liberty 33 @ UConn 36: Liberty ML
Loss $100

Rice 10 @ Western Kentucky 45: Western Kentucky ML
Won $19

Georgia 45 @ Mississippi State 19: Georgia ML
Won $12

Notre Dame 35 @ Navy 32: Notre Dame ML
Won $11

SMU 23 @ South Florida 41: SMU ML
Won $11

4-1, -$47 (-.47u) last week. Somehow UConn got good. I knew they were better, but Liberty just beat Arkansas. And Arkansas almost beat LSU last week. Is UConn a mid-tier SEC school? People are asking. 

Total: 39-6, -$103 (-1.03u)

Move The Line Overs: 27-12-1, -$424 (-4.24u)

Missouri 24 @ Tennessee 66: Over 48.5
Won $35

UMass 33 @ Arkansas State 35: Over 41.5
Won $34

Appalachian State 21 @ Marshall 28: Over 39
Won $32

Nebraska 3 @ Michigan 34: Over 41
Loss $100

California 10 @ Oregon State 38: Over 41
Won $32

4-1, $33 (+0.33u) last week. So close. I heard Will Compton talk about Nebraska and it convinced me that they were going to score some point. I should have known better. It might not be mathematically possible for me to get back to even on the year now. Maybe it is. I'm not interested in doing any additional math at the moment.

Total: 31-13-1, -$391 (-3.91u)

Low Team Total Overs: 22-18, $262 (+2.62u)

Indiana 14 @ Ohio State 56: Indiana over 7.5
Won $90

Boston College 21 @ NC State 20: Boston College over 10.5
Won $105

Nebraska 3 @ Michigan 34: Nebraska over 7.5
Loss $100

New Mexico 3 @ Air Force 35: New Mexico over 6.5
Loss $100

Northwestern 3 @ Minnesota 31: Northwestern over 10.5
Loss $100

2-3, -$105 (-1.05u) last week. This might be unraveling. 3 of my picks scored 3 points. Betting on the worst Big 10 teams to score is just insane behavior. I deserve it. We're still positive though. Just need to hang on for 2 more weeks.

Total: 24-21, $157 (+1.57u)

1st Quarter Unders: 18-22, -$752 (-7.52u)

Notre Dame @ Navy (20 1Q points): 1Q under 7.5
Loss $100

Pittsburgh @ Virginia (28 1Q points): 1Q under 7.5
Loss $100

Boston College @ NC State (21 1Q points): 1Q under 8.5
Loss $100

Wisconsin @ Iowa (3 1Q points): 1Q under 7.5
Won $61

Wyoming @ Colorado State (7 1Q points): 1Q under 9.5
Won $90

2-3, -$149 (+1.49u) this week. Really a bad look to have a record under .500 when most of these bets are like -150. The new goal is to finish the season down less than $1000

Total 20-25, -$901 (-9.01u)

Long Shot Parlays: 1-39, -$1,426 (-14.26u)

Parlay 1 (all 12pm games)

Virginia Tech 7 @ Duke 24: Virginia Tech (+9.5) 
Oklahoma 20 @ West Virginia 23: Oklahoma (-8)
Missouri 24 @ Tennessee 66: Over 56.5
Liberty 33 @ UConn 36: Liberty (-14)
LSU 13 @ Arkansas 10: LSU ML (-177)

Loss $100

Parlay 2 (all 3:30pm games)

Nebraska 3 @ Michigan 34: Nebraska (+31)
Maryland 0 @ Penn State 30: Penn State (+9.5)
Louisville 16 @ Clemson 31: Clemson (-6.5)
Iowa State 14 @ Oklahoma State 20: Iowa State ML (-118)
Alabama 30 @ Ole Miss 24: Over 65

Loss $100

Parlay 3 (all 7/7:30pm games)

Kansas State 31 @ Baylor 3: Baylor ML (-130)
North Carolina 36 @ Wake Forest 34: North Carolina ML (+143)
Washington 37 @ Oregon 34: Washington (+13)
Georgia 45 @ Mississippi State 19: Georgia (-13.5)
TCU 17 @ Texas 10: TCU (+7)

Loss $100

Parlay 4 (late night PAC 12)

California 10 @ Oregon State 38: Over 49
Stanford 7 @ Utah 42: Utah (-24)
Stanford 7 @ Utah 42: Over 54
Arizona 34 @ UCLA 28: UCLA (-20)
Arizona 34 @ UCLA 28: Under 77

Loss $100

Parlay 5 (random)

Pittsburgh 37 @ Virginia 7: Pittsburgh (-5)
Purdue 31 @ Illinois 24: Purdue (+6.5) 
Appalachian State 21 @ Marshall 28: Appalachian State (-1) 
Boston College 21 @ NC State 20: Under 41
Florida State 38 @ Syracuse 3: Florida State (-6.5)

Loss $100

0-5, -$500 (-5.0u) again this week. So close on a couple of those. Baylor just didn't show up. All year I've been telling myself to bet Marshall more too, and for some reason I decided to go against them.

Total: 1-44, -$1,926 (-19.26u)

Pretty bad week overall. I would really like to get at least 2 of these in plus money.

Here are the standings heading into this week

Low Team Totals: 24-21, $157 (+1.57u)

Giant Money Line Favorites: 39-6, -$103 (-1.03u)

Move The Line Overs: 31-13-1, -$391 (-3.91u)

1st Quarter Unders: 20-25, -$901 (-9.01u)

Long Shot Parlays: 1-44, -$1,926 (-19.26u)

Here are some winners

Giant Money Line Favorites: 39-6, -$103 (1.03u)

Indiana @ Michigan State: Michigan State ML
$100 to win $26

Wisconsin @ Nebraska: Wisconsin ML
$100 to win $25

Texas @ Kansas: Texas ML
$100 to win $28

Western Kentucky @ Auburn: Auburn ML
$100 to win $46

Syracuse @ Wake Forest: Wake Forest ML
$100 to win $26

Going with some no so giant favorites this week in an attempt to get back in the positive. I can truly see this going 0-5. 

Move The Line Overs: 31-13-1, -$391 (-3.91u)

Ohio State @ Maryland: Over 55
$100 to win $32

San Diego State @ New Mexico: Over 29
$100 to win $30

Texas@ Kansas: Over 55
$100 to win $32

Iowa @ Minnesota: Over 24.5
$100 to win $32

Akron @ Buffalo: Over 36.5
$100 to win $32

Alright, I picked two high overs, and two overs in the 20's. I can't pass up an opportunity to take an over in the 20's. They just look too funny. Then hopefully we'll get some chaotic MACtion that results in a bunch of points for Akron/Buffalo. 

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Low Team Total Overs: 24-21, $157 (+1.57u)

San Diego State @ New Mexico: New Mexico over 9.5
$100 to win $70

Illinois @ Michigan: Illinois over 10.5
$100 to win $95

Northwestern @ Purdue: Northwestern over 12.5
$100 to win $77

Boston College @ Notre Dame: Boston College over 10.5
$100 to win $110

New Mexico State @ Missouri: New Mexico State over 7.5
$100 to win $98

Once again these bets are brought to you by the Big Ten, and the state of New Mexico. I really bet the same teams every week. If your a team that is being bet on for this strategy, then things are not going well for you.

1st Quarter Unders: 20-25, -$901 (-9.01u)

Navy @ UCF: Under 12.5
$100 to win $85

UConn @ Army: Under 9.5
$100 to win $94

Colorado State @ Air Force: Under 9.5
$100 to win $100

USC @ UCLA: Under 16.5
$100 to win $105

South Florida @ Tulsa: Under 13.5
$100 to win $86

Went with 3 military academies. Not because they have bad offenses. It's because they have great defenses, and I think they all do some sort of option that will run a lot of clock (not sure about Air Force). USC @ UCLA makes zero sense why it's so low. The total for the game is in the 70's. Maybe someone knows something I don't, and they're going to start slow. South Florida @ Tulsa I have no opinion on, I just liked the number.

Long Shot Parlays: 1-44, -$1,926 (-19.26u)

Parlay 1 (ACC)

Duke @ Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh -7.5
Boston College @ Notre Dame: Over 42.5
Miami @ Clemson: Miami +19
NC State @ Louisville: NC State ML +155
Georgia Tech @ North Carolina: Georgia Tech +21.5

$100 to win $3,328

Parlay 2 (SEC)

Western Kentucky @ Auburn: Auburn -5.5
Ole Miss @ Arkansas: Ole Miss -2.5
Florida @ Vanderbilt: Under 57.5
Tennessee @ South Carolina: Under 66
UMass @ Texas A&M: Mass +33.5

$100 to win $2,428

Parlay 3 (Big 10)

Ohio State @ Maryland: Ohio State -27.5
Illinois @ Michigan: Michigan -17.5
Northwestern @ Purdue: Northwestern +18.5
Wisconsin @ Nebraska: Under 38.5
Iowa @ Minnesota: Under 32.5

$100 to win $2,481

Parlay 4 (Big 12)

TCU @ Baylor: TCU -2.5
Texas @ Kansas: Texas -9
Kansas State @ West Virginia: Under 54
Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma: Oklahoma State +7
Texas Tech @ Iowa State: Texas Tech +3.5

$100 to win $2,536

Parlay 5 (PAC-12)

USC @ UCLA: USC -2.5
USC @ UCLA: Over 76.5
Colorado @ Washington: Washington -31
Utah @ Oregon: Oregon ML +105
Washington State @ Arizona: Arizona ML +133

$100 to win $3,001