The Patriots and JJ McCarthy Have Been Seeing an Awful Lot of Each Other Lately and I'm Not Sure What to Make of It

Jaime Crawford. Getty Images.

For all the hundreds of millions of dollars and billions of man hours that are spent on the NFL Draft process, it still somehow manages to be the most random, unscientific process in the world. Sure things turn out to be anything but. Can't-miss guys miss at astonishing rates. Late Saturday picks and undrafteds become legends. Ultimately it's one giant goatfuck of opinions and speculation. And we're all just one step above sitting in a cave rattling bones around in a turtle shell in order to predict the future. 

So keep that in mind as I try to process what this is all about:

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For starters, I have no beef whatsoever with JJ McCarthy. I'm not about to sit here and insist he has no shot at being the franchise quarterback the Patriots desperately need in order to keep the Eliot Wolf-Jerod Mayo era from being a complete waste of time that brings us a few years closer to death, but no closer to a seventh banner.

And with such a huge, consequential decision to be made, one that has the fate of the franchise hanging in the balance, it'd be a dereliction of duty not to talk to every top QB prospect. Hell, Josh McDaniels used to visit with consensus No. 1 overall picks like Joe Burrow when the Pats were drafting in the late 20s and 30s every year. It's just doing your due diligence. And according to some, Wolf is a big McCarthy guy. As are the Vikings:

And there's not a man, woman or child in New England that doesn't have visions of a Michigan quarterback leading this team back to the promised land - while 31 other fanbases throw up in their mouths - dancing in their head. 

Still, all the smoke around this particular prospect lately just doesn't sit right with me. Of all the uncertainty that's at the core of this whole process, there's one common trend you see every year that worries me the most. And that's the Late Risers. Some guy with literally hundreds of hours of game film, who hasn't taken a snap since January or sooner, but who suddenly comes out of the back of the pack and moves up everyone's draft boards in March and April. Sometimes it's for legitimate reasons, like he measures off the charts at the Combine or whatever. But sometimes it just … happens. For no discernible Which strikes me as the case with McCarthy. 

Total credit where it's due to the people doing good work over at NFL Mock Draft Database. This is their graphic, not mine. I'm just borrowing it because it perfectly illustrates what I'm talking about:

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This looks like a chart of subprime mortgage lending just before the housing bubble burst in 2008. What has gone on since the middle of February to make him rise from the 45th prospect on average to now as high as 7th? And projected by some to go to New England at No. 3? Did he blow the roof off Lucas Oil at the Indianapolis Olympics? Because if he did, I missed it. Or is it more a case of the public and personnel departments alike just talking themselves into a guy they've seen play on national television 40 times over the past three years? 

Again, this is not a dig at JJ McCarthy. But I'm just not seeing it. I agree with Greg Cosell:

… when he points out that when you're evaluating a quarterback, you want to see things on game film that you can extrapolate to the next level. And that's not on his tape. He played behind the best offensive line in the nation. His receivers were open. He could work the short- and intermediate middle of the field, and rarely ever have to throw bombs outside the numbers or pick up 3rd & 10s on his the Michigan side of the field. He was never asked to carry his team back from a big deficit. I believe I heard that Michigan led at the half of every game, and by an average of 14 points. Which is not to say he can't be that guy. Just that we've never seen him have to be that guy. 

I'd feel better about McCarthy if it wasn't for the fact the first thing you hear out of peoples mouths about him are abstract concepts. Intangibles. Leadership. Clutch. A winner. Great attitude. A character guy. Commands a huddle. Forgive me for being a little gun shy, but that's what sold me on Mac Jones. McCarthy is by all accounts more athletic and stronger than Jones. Which is well and good.

But I'm done with immeasurables at the moment. I demand measurables. Someone who can take over a game. Carry a team when other things aren't going right. Who will hide all its flaws and overcome its mistakes. Who will make plays out of structure when everything breaks down. A future top-tier player in the conversation for the best QB in the league. If I can help myself to yet someone else's intellectual property, NBC Sports Boston's Phil Perry describes McCarthy as someone you can win with, as opposed to someone you win because of. I'd prefer a freakishly athletic QB who is at times impossible to stop. In other words, the kind the Pats have spent the last four years losing to and we've been stuck watching in the playoffs while we're looking for a savior in the draft. 

Eliot Wolf and his staff might be looking at JJ McCarthy over their plates of pasta and neverending first course at the Patriots Place Olive Garden and see exactly the QB they've been searching for. If so, they may very well be right. If that's the case, I reserve the right to forget I ever cast doubt on the player and fanboy the hell out of him. (Though fat lot of good that's done me lately.) It's just that I want to come away from the 2024 offseason with nothing less than the answer to all our problems. Drafting in the Top 3 every 31 years is plenty enough for me.