SearchSearch
My Feed!My FeedApp

Reader Email: Math Nerd Spends Hours Statistically Proving Derek Jeter's Final Moment At Yankee Stadium Was Rigged

9/26/2014 3:25 PM

 

 
Reader Email: Jeter’s Rigged Final Moment

I just spent hours, calculating why Jeter’s hit last night was staged. Enjoy.
 
Sources: Fan Graph, Stat.Tamu.edu
   
jeter
 
(click to enlarge)
 

Now calculating Even Meek’s pitching in the last 7 months:

Avg Speed Delta of Mean Variance (Theta^2)
90.1 -1.357 1.841 Mean: 91.457
90.2 -1.257 1.580 Variance: 1.272
90.6 -0.857 0.734 Std Dev: 2.984
92.1 0.643 0.413
91.6 0.143 0.020
92.2 0.743 0.551
93.4 1.943 3.770
91.457 8.909

Variance: 8.909 / 7 = 1.272

Standard Deviation = Sq. Rt of 8.909 = 2.984

91.457(Average FB) – 86.1(Jeter FB) = 5.357mph

5.357mph (Delta of Avg FB and Jeter FBs) / 2.984 (Std. Dev) = 1.795 Standard Deviations from the mean

1.8 Std Deviations = .96407 %

1 – .96407 = .03593% Chance

Jeter’s BA: .255 Std. Deviation %: .03593

.255 (Jetere BA) = 1 in 3.921 .03593 (FB @ 86.1 mph %) = 1 in 27.831

Chances of Derek Jeter Getting a hit on a 86.1 mph Fastball from Evan Meek: 1/109.12 chance

Derek Jeter had a 0.9 % Chance of doing that naturally last night

 
 
 

Booyah! Stats and facts don’t lie. I 100% only understand about 20% of the numbers provided, but I’m going to assume they hold water. The dude provided a bibliography for fuck’s sake. You don’t mess with the level of nerd that would actually cite sources in a Reader Email to Barstool.

Now that being said, was it really rigged by the Orioles? No. Jeter still had to come through. Fellow baseball losers historians like myself would point to Mickey Mantle’s second to last HR when he was told, out of respect, a fastball was coming right down the pike. The Mick, once he finally believed the catcher wasn’t yanking his crank, still had to hit it out of the park. It obviously looks fishy when the pitcher throws a meatball ready to be cooked, but props to Jeter for capitalizing on the situation. Even though 99.999999% of Major Leaguers would crush it towards South America. #RE2ECT

 
 

PS – Additional Jeter stats/hatred provided by the emailer. Love it.
 
Great in the 90’s, above avg in the early 00’s, average end of 00’s, worst player in baseball since 2010… the stats say it all. I fucking hate Yankee Fanboys.

Close and late game situations for Derek Jeter all time in the playoffs – CAPTAIN CLUTCH? More like Mr. Hopefully Make Some Contact.

7in or later: Leading by 1, tied, or have the tie run in the on deck circle:

Player Team Pos G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS?
2012
Jeter, D NYY SS – 7 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 .286 .286 .286 .571
2011
Jeter, D NYY SS – 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000
2010
Jeter, D NYY SS – 3 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 .667 .667 1.000 1.667
2009
Jeter, D NYY SS – 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 0 0 .000 .200 .000 .200
2007
Jeter, D NYY SS – 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000
2006
Jeter, D NYY SS – 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000
2005
Jeter, D NYY SS – 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000
2004
Jeter, D NYY SS – 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 .000 .222 .000 .222
2003
Jeter, D NYY SS – 9 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 .222 .222 .444 .667
2001
Jeter, D NYY SS – 9 2 2 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 .222 .300 .556 .856
2000
Jeter, D NYY SS – 9 1 2 0 0 0 0 2 4 0 0 .222 .364 .222 .586
1999
Jeter, D NYY SS – 7 0 5 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 .714 .750 .714 1.464


9/26/2014 3:25 PM