Papelbon Blows The Game Again; Which Relief Arm Should The Nats Add?
Everything was looking up for the Nationals last night. They got off to an early first inning lead and while Gio Gonzalez coughed two runs right back up in the bottom of the inning, he was very solid for the rest of his start. Wilson Ramos hit another homer, his 15th, in a multi-hit effort and Anthony Rendon reached base three times and continued his recent power surge with his 3rd homer in his past 7 starts. All the Nats needed for the victory was for closer and choking extraordinaire Jonathan Papelbon to get 3 outs without allowing more than 1 run and that loser couldn’t even get 1 out. Throw in Ryan Zimmerman’s 0-4 day with a costly 9th inning error and the Nats’ two biggest weaknesses were front and center for Mike Rizzo (and opposing GMs) mere days before the deadline.
I wrote just two days ago about some potential relief trade options for the Nationals and, while it sounds like Andrew Cashner will be a starter on whichever team he is traded to, the other guys are still very much in play. White Sox closer David Robertson is certainly on the block but he is also very expensive relative to his actual value (both in terms of salary and what it would cost to trade for him) – unless I am really over-estimating what his sales price will be, I’d like the Nats to stay away from him. Robertson has a higher ERA than Pap’s and he walks a batter every two innings. I don’t want that in my closer and I really don’t want that in any pitcher that could pitch meaningful innings in the post-season.
Francisco Rodriguez of the Tigers is an arm I didn’t mention in my last blog but he’s got extensive post-season (and closing) experience. The one problem? Mike Ilitch, the Tigers owner and the idiot who refuses to offer delivery for Little Caesar’s Pizza, is almost always in win-now mode and with the Tigers only 3.5 games out of a wildcard spot, I don’t necessarily see them selling.
Wade Davis is another name that has bouncced around the hot stove but you know who the Royals claim they want for him? Lucas Giolito. I’ll pass. Davis is a stud closer – he is a game-changer like Chapman but Giolito has the potential to be a 200 inning stud instead of a 70 inning stud. I wouldn’t necessarily be disappointed if the Nationals acquire Davis because it makes them that much better in 2016 but its not at all a good long term move – especially when Chapman and Kenley Jansen are both around for 0 prospects this offseason (Jansen would cost a draft pick).
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The Brewers relievers are looking better and better and they are probably less expensive than any of the firemen I just mentioned. Jeremy Jeffress is an interesting case – in past seasons, he had struck out 8.3 or 8.4 batters per 9 innings but, since taking over the closer role, he has only K-ed 6.7/9. Jeffress has also really dipped his walk rate and introduced a sinker and a knuckle-curve into his repertoire. Jeffress won’t test free agency until 2020 so he’ll definitely cost more than a rental but he is a cheap, controllable, and effective young arm who I’d certainly be willing to throw a prospect or two at. Will Smith, Jeffress’ left-handed counterpart, was injured during the first few months of the season which means whoever acquires him will be getting an arm with a lot less wear and tear than most arms at this stage in the season. Smith’s four-seamer and curve have each been effective but he needs to improve his two-seamer’s and slider’s effectiveness if he wants to take the next step. Smith hasn’t dazzled when healthy this year and would be cheaper than Jeffress. He also probably wouldn’t dethrone Pap from the closing role (I’m not sure if Jeffress would immediately either) and I am honestly fine with that.
Jeffress (left) and Smith (right
Jonathan Papelbon cannot continue to close games. He doesn’t miss bats, he can’t locate pitches, and he certainly cannot be trusted in a big game. I do not want the Nats to sell the future (Trea, Giolito, Lopez, etc) for a temporary arm. But it is obvious Papelbon is not the answer and needs to be pulled from the closing role ASAP.