Taking A Look At The New Blackhawks Line Up

Stan Bowman promised big changes this offseason after the Blackhawks got SMOKED in the first round of the playoffs vs Nashville and boy did he deliver. The coaching staff and roster are MUCH different from a team that won the Western Conference in the regular season with 109 points. Some changes were unfortunate cap related moves like Marcus Kruger, and other moves were made just to change the way the Blackhawks played. There’s still a lot of questions around the team, but this group is certainly different and more cost effective so Stan Bowman accomplished some of his summer goals.

The Nashville series proved one thing…the Blackhawks had lost their bite from previous years. They were easy to play against. SportLogIQ, an analytics company in Canada, provided me with some data that illustrates this point perfectly.

Even though Nashville dictated the pace and were in total control of the series, the Blackhawks actually controlled the puck more than the Preds.

Puck Possession Time:

Blackhawks– 19:55  Preds– 15:34

OZONE Possession:

Blackhawks– 7:16    Preds– 5:19

Even though the Blackhawks had the puck on their sticks every game, it didn’t matter because they were too often one-and-done in the zone and weren’t able to generate shots from the slot or high danger chances. The Preds led the Hawks in high danger chances 6-4 on average in the series. Teams that have more high danger chances win 64% of the time according to SportLogIQ. And in the case of this series…100% of the time. Possession of the puck is important, but you need to have possession with purpose. The Blackhawks needed to do a better job of getting to the net and generating possession in the zone that led to shots from the slot instead of shots from the half-wall.

When you look at the Blackhawks off-season moves through that prism, they make a lot of sense. As special and as dynamic as Panarin is, he’s a perimeter player. He doesn’t win a ton of battles along the wall to create scoring chances in the zone. If the Blackhawks weren’t generating off of the rush, then they simply weren’t generating. In addition to Saad for Panarin swap, all four of the Blackhawks signings are guys who are tough to play against. They all compete. I’m not sure if the team is better than they were last season, but they will certainly be a tougher out in the playoffs and playoff success is the only measuring stick at this point in Chicago.

So how does it all fit together now? The way I see it, the Blackhawks have 10 or 11 forwards that will play every day if they’re healthy.

Kane, Toews, Saad, Panik, Sharp, Anisimov, Schmaltz, Hartman, Kero, Wingels, and Bouma.

Then there’s a group of players who will be competing for those final NHL roster spots and will likely see sometime in the press box or in the AHL depending on their status.

Hinostroza, Hayden, Jurco, Dauphin, DeBrincat, Tootoo, Fortin.

So now it’s up to Joel Quenneville and staff to take those 18 guys and come up with a lineup that can consistently get results and get back to the playoffs.

If I was Joel Quenneville  my lines would be

Saad-Toews-Panik

I think you can pretty much pencil this line in for opening night and I think it is going be a dominant line at both ends of the ice. Three guys who can skate, get the puck, protect the puck, and finish around the net. I think its realistic to expect a combined 80 goals out of this line in 2017-18.

Hartman-Schmaltz-Kane

Joel Quenneville said that he’d start the year with Kane and Schmaltz playing together. I think many assumed that Schmaltz would simply step right into the LW spot vacated by Panarin. And that could very well happen. I just happen to think that Schmaltz is a natural center and I like the idea of Kane and Schmaltz generating chances in small areas as opposed to throwing it across the ice through the seam. Hartman is a guy who will get to the net(as Anisimov did the past two years) and finish. Hartman definitely showed enough offensive punch with scoring 19 in his rookie year. He would’ve likely scored 20 if he wasn’t suffering from a hand injury at the end of the year. Yes, Schmaltz has some things to work on like face-offs and his defensive game, but talent isn’t static. He could improve on both of those things this year, and playing with Kane means you’re going to be playing with the puck more times than not anyways. This line, itself, is very balanced and it allows for more balance throughout the lineup.

Sharp-Anisimov-Hinostroza

Hinostroza is the key here. I believe in his game. Not too many guys have wheels like his, and if he can learn how to use that speed more effectively and become an animal on the forecheck than this line suddenly has a ton of ability. According to leftwinglock.com, Patrick Sharp played the majority of last season with Radek Faksa and Devin Shore. This is certainly an upgrade. That, along with being healthier, more comfortable, and having you know…simply a better shooting percentage that 5.5% he will have more production. Anisimov’s production will go down if he’s in this spot because he’s not going to get cookie goals if he’s not next to the best winger in the world, but if Anisimov is your 3rd line center then you’re in a very good spot. This line won’t be your traditional “checking line” as many people like to label 3rd lines. That shutdown line will be the line with Toews, as it usually is with the Blackhawks. This line won’t be bad defensively, but it certainly won’t be asked to matchup against the McDavids, Crosbys, and Getzlafs of the world either. It’d be a secondary scoring line.

Wingels-Kero-Bouma

And this is your energy line/2nd checking line. The Blackhawks certainly wanted to be meaner and adding Wingels and Bouma to the lineup definitely does that. Both of those guys play with a serious edge and don’t mind mixing it up or getting under the skin of their opponents. Like I said earlier, talent and production aren’t static. And if the Bouma and Wingels can get back to their 2015 production then this could be one of the better 4th lines in all of hockey. Just two seasons ago Wingels played 16+ minutes a night, scored 16 goals, and had 263 hits. In that same season, Bouma played 14 minutes, also scored 16 goals(caveat he had a ridiculously high Shooting percentage of 15.4%), and had 264 hits. By comparison, Richard Panik was the team leader in hits last season with 147. Having energy/tough guys that can play a real shift can make all the difference. Andrew Shaw and Andrew Desjardins played that role in 2015, Shaw was traded to Montreal last off-season and Desjardins’ game fell off a cliff last year and nobody filled that role. Wingels and Bouma aren’t like Tootoo where they’ll only play 5 mins a night and won’t really help the team beyond threatening people. They’ll play a regular shift and kill penalties. The Blackhawks weren’t able to answer Nashville’s energy and physicality from the likes of Cody McLeod, Colton Sissons, etc.

If Schmaltz isn’t ready to be a center full-time or the team feels like they are deep enough of at center with Dauphin in the mix as a 4th line center, then things will look differently. Between the 12 guys listed above and potential reinforcements in Rockford, I feel pretty good about the forwards. As for the defense…

Duncan Keith — Connor Murphy

Michael Kempny– Brent Seabrook

Gustav Forsling –….Jan Rutta? Pokka? Roszival? Oesterle?

I’ve talked myself into Connor Murphy being an effective top 4 defenseman, especially if he’s paired with Duncan Keith. Everyone else around the internet was in love with Michael Kempny last year. I hated him. He can skate, he has a pretty heavy shot, he’s physical, but man does his brain stink. He seemed to be consistently out of position, poor gap control, and off-balance. He does have talent so maybe in year 2 of his NHL experience and with Ulf Samuelsson as a mentor he can take a step forward in his development. Going from being a healthy scratch 32 times to being a top 4 guy is a HUGE leap. I don’t think Seabrook’s game has declined as much as some think, but it has definitely declined some. You almost want him bouyed by Duncan Keith if you trust Connor Murphy to play with someone like Kempny. Forsling has real potential. I like his game. It’s quiet as he makes good passes, uses space and his skating well, but he definitely needs to get stronger this summer and be tougher in his own end. Forsling should be a good 3rd pair guy this year. As for the 6th and 7th Dman spots…woof. Rutta is the wild card obviously. Impossible to project what he will be and I will admit that I’m personally a little gunshy about counting on him after the Kempny experiment last year. Any way you slice it…there’s not many options in house for the Blackhawks. Good thing is that they will be able to use some of that Hossa LTIR cap space to acquire a defenseman. Bad thing is that there’s not many good rental options out there. Mike Green…hard pass. John Moore? I don’t know. My pipe dream is finding a way to get Jake McCabe out of Buffalo, but that would be difficult. Another name to keep an eye on…Will Butcher. Last year’s Hobey Baker winner and Captain of the National Champion Denver Pioneers. Sounds like he won’t be signing with the Avalanche and will become a free agent on August 15th. There probably aren’t too many teams out there with a quicker path to the NHL while playing for a top team. As we’ve outlined…the Blackhawks 6th Dman spot is there for the taking right now AND Kempny, Rozsival, and Rutta are all free agents after this year. There’s an opportunity for him in the immediate future and going forward. Butcher isn’t going to be confused with Erik Karlsson out there, but he moves the puck well and is very cerebral. He could potentially help too.

Losing two of the better defensive forwards in the league, Marian Hossa and Marcus Kruger, combined with a thin blue line isn’t a great recipe, but we just saw the Pittsburgh Penguins win the Stanley Cup with no real stars on defense. In the early days of the dynasty there wasn’t a single team that could match the Blackhawks in terms of depth and high end talent. The days of having Nick Leddy in the 3rd pair and Michael Frolik on the 4th line are gone. Having said that, the Blackhawks are still in a great position to contend again. Stan still has work to do, but the team is younger, faster, tougher, and the Blackhawks are essentially out of salary cap hell for the next year or two. Overall a pretty good summer on paper.